Mid-Season Rankings
Before I get into this, some general observations and a note about methodology.
Scoring is slightly down this year. The average total score is 67. It was 70 last year. This is the offenses fault. Offense is off 4 points per game on average from last year (43 - 47) but defense is up 2 on average (24 - 22). Offense seems to have particularly suffered since the byes started in week 4.
Whenever I do rankings, what I am doing is looking at the distribution of teams' total scores as compared to each other. The first thing I do is create a scale. I do this by taking all total scores and grouping them in order and then noting various percentile marks. Then I'll take a teams' scores and compare them to this scale. Did a team consistently score over the mean? Over the 66th percentile? Under the 33rd? From this I can project the number of games I think a team should have won. When I do my weekly rankings I am comparing the last 4 weeks worth of scores against my scale. For today's rankings I will look at the entire first half of the season.
1. Drow, up 3 from the post-draft ranking
Of course the funny part is that the 4 players I mentioned really liking from this years' draft in my post-draft rankings have all been traded or replaced in the starting lineup. I was honestly a little surprised to see myself at the top of these rankings. This team is not dominating in any one category but manages to lead the league in game scores above the 66th percentile (5) and is tied with a couple other teams for the fewest scores under the 33rd percentile (1). Aaron Rodgers' emergence as a top QB has been the biggest reason Drow are competing every week. A consistent RB is what is holding this team back.
Projected Wins: 5.2 (actual wins: 6)
Overall Grade: A-, Offense C, Defense B-
2.Mimes, up 6
This has been a long time coming, but Mimes' commitment to Philip Rivers has paid off. Rivers and Greg Jennings have revitalized this team. Meanwhile, Frank Gore has proven to be a solid option at RB. This also emphasizes the strength in the Left Division this year. With 3 teams over .500 at the break.
Projected Wins: 4.8 (actual wins: 4)
Overall Grade: A-, Offense B, Defense B
3. Buffalo Bills, down 2
This team has produced some big games and a couple stinkers. The defense has been very strong and the offense has gone with the RB position. Michael Turner has been much better then I expected but he's had a couple bad games and his subs have not done real well. When Buffalo gets double digits from the RB position they win. Oddly that happens every other game.
Projected Wins: 4.4 (actual wins: 3)
Overall Grade: A-, Offense A-, Defense A-
4. Ramjets, up 6
Ramjets have easily been the most unlucky in the first 7 games of 2008. Four times this season a team scored 70 or more and lost. Ramjets account for 3 of them. (Old No. 7 had the other.) Clinton Portis has been the best RB in FLOF this season and between Eli and Kurt Warner Ramjets have put together a decent backfield combo. How they replace Chris Chambers' WR production will be crucial for their second half run at a playoff spot.
Projected Wins: 4.3 (actual wins: 2)
Overall Grade: B, Offense A-, Defense C
5. Old No. 7, up 7
This is our biggest gainer in the rankings. Old No. 7 parlayed very good games from Tony Romo and Anquan Boldin along with solid efforts by Matt Forte into an early 3-2 record and six consecutive above average scores. But injuries could drop this team from here. Both Romo and Boldin are hurt and they've lost 2 in a row.
Projected Wins: 4.2 (actual wins: 3)
Overall Grade: B, Offense B, Defense B-
6. Flannel, up 1
Flannel began the season 4-0 while scoring no fewer then 75 points in every game. And then the wheels came off. A lack of depth during the bye weeks combined with injuries and less production then you would expect from people like Peyton and Addai (when he was healthy) has led to an 0-3 run during which they scored under 50 twice.
Projected Wins: 3.9 (actual wins: 4)
Overall Grade: B, Offense C, Defense B
7. Capo, down 4
This team just isn't playing up to their talent level. Especially on offense, they have people at every position who can score points, they just don't seem to at the same time with any consistency. Consequently they are tied with Old No. 7 with the most game scores in the middle third percentile (4).
Projected Wins: 3.9 (actual wins: 4)
Overall Grade: C, Offense C, Defense B-
8. Bill's Team, down 3
Bill's franchise history of luck continues. Larry Fitzgerald is Bill's big standout this year, but everyone else has been pretty average on the whole. Bill scored over 90 points in weeks two and three but has scored over the average only once since. His four game win streak to start the season has turned into a 1-2 run.
Projected Wins: 3.6 (actual wins: 5)
Overall Grade: C, Offense D, Defense B-
9. Beavers, down 3
The defense continues to produce great results but the offense hasn't been able to get it done. WR has been a week spot for the team and Adrian Peterson has been very inconsistent. Despite all that Beavers still have 4 wins.
Projected Wins: 3.4 (actual wins: 4)
Overall Grade: C-, Offense C, Defense A-
10. Malleus, down 1
Malleus is one of two teams to score over the average only once... and yet they have 4 wins. But Malleus may be resolving some of their issues. Big Ben may be a solution at QB, improving on their 4 pt/gm average prior. Ronnie Brown and Randy Moss have improved the WR and RB situation.
Projected Wins: 2.1 (actual wins: 4)
Overall Grade: D, Offense D, Defense C
11. Hamburglers, down 9
Ham scored 89 in week four. Ham has also scored in the bottom 33% five times. The WR situation looks good, but QB and RB have been problems this year. LDT just hasn't been his usual self and that has really hurt.
Projected Wins: 1.8 (actual wins: 2)
Overall Grade: D, Offense D, Defense C
12. Brawlers, down 1
Brawlers have not scored above average yet this year. The defense has been particularly bad -- scoring 10 or fewer points four times already. The injury to Westbrook hasn't helped either.
Projected Wins: 1.0 (actual wins: 1)
Overall Grade: D, Offense C-, Defense F-
Scoring is slightly down this year. The average total score is 67. It was 70 last year. This is the offenses fault. Offense is off 4 points per game on average from last year (43 - 47) but defense is up 2 on average (24 - 22). Offense seems to have particularly suffered since the byes started in week 4.
Whenever I do rankings, what I am doing is looking at the distribution of teams' total scores as compared to each other. The first thing I do is create a scale. I do this by taking all total scores and grouping them in order and then noting various percentile marks. Then I'll take a teams' scores and compare them to this scale. Did a team consistently score over the mean? Over the 66th percentile? Under the 33rd? From this I can project the number of games I think a team should have won. When I do my weekly rankings I am comparing the last 4 weeks worth of scores against my scale. For today's rankings I will look at the entire first half of the season.
1. Drow, up 3 from the post-draft ranking
Of course the funny part is that the 4 players I mentioned really liking from this years' draft in my post-draft rankings have all been traded or replaced in the starting lineup. I was honestly a little surprised to see myself at the top of these rankings. This team is not dominating in any one category but manages to lead the league in game scores above the 66th percentile (5) and is tied with a couple other teams for the fewest scores under the 33rd percentile (1). Aaron Rodgers' emergence as a top QB has been the biggest reason Drow are competing every week. A consistent RB is what is holding this team back.
Projected Wins: 5.2 (actual wins: 6)
Overall Grade: A-, Offense C, Defense B-
2.Mimes, up 6
This has been a long time coming, but Mimes' commitment to Philip Rivers has paid off. Rivers and Greg Jennings have revitalized this team. Meanwhile, Frank Gore has proven to be a solid option at RB. This also emphasizes the strength in the Left Division this year. With 3 teams over .500 at the break.
Projected Wins: 4.8 (actual wins: 4)
Overall Grade: A-, Offense B, Defense B
3. Buffalo Bills, down 2
This team has produced some big games and a couple stinkers. The defense has been very strong and the offense has gone with the RB position. Michael Turner has been much better then I expected but he's had a couple bad games and his subs have not done real well. When Buffalo gets double digits from the RB position they win. Oddly that happens every other game.
Projected Wins: 4.4 (actual wins: 3)
Overall Grade: A-, Offense A-, Defense A-
4. Ramjets, up 6
Ramjets have easily been the most unlucky in the first 7 games of 2008. Four times this season a team scored 70 or more and lost. Ramjets account for 3 of them. (Old No. 7 had the other.) Clinton Portis has been the best RB in FLOF this season and between Eli and Kurt Warner Ramjets have put together a decent backfield combo. How they replace Chris Chambers' WR production will be crucial for their second half run at a playoff spot.
Projected Wins: 4.3 (actual wins: 2)
Overall Grade: B, Offense A-, Defense C
5. Old No. 7, up 7
This is our biggest gainer in the rankings. Old No. 7 parlayed very good games from Tony Romo and Anquan Boldin along with solid efforts by Matt Forte into an early 3-2 record and six consecutive above average scores. But injuries could drop this team from here. Both Romo and Boldin are hurt and they've lost 2 in a row.
Projected Wins: 4.2 (actual wins: 3)
Overall Grade: B, Offense B, Defense B-
6. Flannel, up 1
Flannel began the season 4-0 while scoring no fewer then 75 points in every game. And then the wheels came off. A lack of depth during the bye weeks combined with injuries and less production then you would expect from people like Peyton and Addai (when he was healthy) has led to an 0-3 run during which they scored under 50 twice.
Projected Wins: 3.9 (actual wins: 4)
Overall Grade: B, Offense C, Defense B
7. Capo, down 4
This team just isn't playing up to their talent level. Especially on offense, they have people at every position who can score points, they just don't seem to at the same time with any consistency. Consequently they are tied with Old No. 7 with the most game scores in the middle third percentile (4).
Projected Wins: 3.9 (actual wins: 4)
Overall Grade: C, Offense C, Defense B-
8. Bill's Team, down 3
Bill's franchise history of luck continues. Larry Fitzgerald is Bill's big standout this year, but everyone else has been pretty average on the whole. Bill scored over 90 points in weeks two and three but has scored over the average only once since. His four game win streak to start the season has turned into a 1-2 run.
Projected Wins: 3.6 (actual wins: 5)
Overall Grade: C, Offense D, Defense B-
9. Beavers, down 3
The defense continues to produce great results but the offense hasn't been able to get it done. WR has been a week spot for the team and Adrian Peterson has been very inconsistent. Despite all that Beavers still have 4 wins.
Projected Wins: 3.4 (actual wins: 4)
Overall Grade: C-, Offense C, Defense A-
10. Malleus, down 1
Malleus is one of two teams to score over the average only once... and yet they have 4 wins. But Malleus may be resolving some of their issues. Big Ben may be a solution at QB, improving on their 4 pt/gm average prior. Ronnie Brown and Randy Moss have improved the WR and RB situation.
Projected Wins: 2.1 (actual wins: 4)
Overall Grade: D, Offense D, Defense C
11. Hamburglers, down 9
Ham scored 89 in week four. Ham has also scored in the bottom 33% five times. The WR situation looks good, but QB and RB have been problems this year. LDT just hasn't been his usual self and that has really hurt.
Projected Wins: 1.8 (actual wins: 2)
Overall Grade: D, Offense D, Defense C
12. Brawlers, down 1
Brawlers have not scored above average yet this year. The defense has been particularly bad -- scoring 10 or fewer points four times already. The injury to Westbrook hasn't helped either.
Projected Wins: 1.0 (actual wins: 1)
Overall Grade: D, Offense C-, Defense F-
Labels: 2008
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