Week 10: If the Playoffs Began Today, and other notes

Abbreviated notes this week as I'm in Chicago for a conference and my time is limited.

But, most importantly, the updated playoff picture is this:

1) Beavers (8-2, 1-0 v. Flannel)
2) Flannel (8-2)
3) The Rednecks (7-3)
4) Ramjets (5-5, 3-0 vs. Drow, Old No. 7, and Capo)
5) Old No. 7 (5-5, 2-1 vs. Drow, Ramjets and Capo)
6) Drow (5-5, 1-2 vs. (Ramjets, Old No. 7 and Capo)

1/2 game back) Capo (5-5, 0-3 vs. (Ramjets, Old No. 7, and Drow)
1/2 game back) Brawlers (4-5-1)

1 game back) Malleus (3-5-2)
1 game back) Hamburglers (4-6)

2.5 games back) Bill (2-7-1)

3 games back) Mimes (2-8)


Clinching Scenarios

• Beavers' magic number is 2 (combination of Drow loses and Beaver wins).
• Flannel's magic number is also 2 but its a more complicated 2 because both Ramjets and Capo are tied at 5-5 behind them so their loses count half for this.
• Rednecks' magic number is 3 (combination of Redneck wins and Old No. 7 losses.

History tells us that being over .500 is the greatest predictor of making the playoffs. (A team with a winning record has missed the playoffs twice in the last 9 year.)

• Beavers and Flannel have both clinched winning records.
• Rednecks need 1 more win to clinch a winning record.
• The 5-5 teams and Brawlers need 3 more wins each to get there.
• Malleus and Hamburglers will need to win all 4 games to have a winning record.
• Bill and Mimes have clinched losing records.

Note that a .500 record exactly, has about a 40% chance of making the playoffs historically and happened as recently as last year. .500 records are perhaps historically rarer because FLOF had a 13 game season for most of its recent past.

Other Notes:

Donovan McNabb scored over half of the team's points and got Beavers the win without Peterson to pull in PoW honors. Brian Westbrook gathered OPoW honors while Gibril Wilson shuts out Mimes all by himself for DPoW honors. And if Griese could have stayed in the football game and put up a more normal QB score (instead of 3 pts) we would never have had the asterisk, so he's my Goat this week.