The Draft Review
The Draft. Much maligned by me in the past, it certainly wasn't devoid of value this year. Most teams got positive value overall from their draft class this year. And some players may end up having even more value in future years.
Here's the usual chart, but then I'll look at each team's draft.
NY Hamburglers
By almost any metric I can think of Hamburglers won the draft this year -- at least based on how it contributed to their results in 2013. Hamburglers took the standard 8 draft picks and got 59 games at more than a point over median value. They also got a great ratio of 23:13 +games (top 3rd) to -games (bottom 3rd).
In round 1 and 2 Hamburglers took WRs Steve Smith and T.Y. Hilton who were average if unspectacular starters over the course of a combined 19 starts. The worst pick from a VOM perspective was Kicker Matt Bryant in the 4th round with a VOM of -0.9 over 10 games. But two big defensive picks carried this draft class: Paul Posluzny in the 5th and DeAngelo Hall in the 8th. Both players had excellent value and played a majority of their opportunities.
After this draft happened I graded it as a marginal win, which was clearly an undervaluing.
Dynasty
Dynasty's first draft was interesting by the numbers. They ended up making 11 picks but only 6 played and only 3 played more than 2 games so they only got 34 starts out of the class, which is the lowest ratio of any draft this year. But the starts they got were only bested by Hamburglers in terms of Value Over Median at exactly 1 point over per start.
I poked fun at Dynasty's first round pick of Vernon Davis, but he was a solid contributor if only for 6 games due to injury. Lavonte David was the star of this draft class starting 11 games as one of the best DFs of the year. Dan Bailey was a kicker who didn't suck and started 13 games as the last major contributor.
I graded this as the worst draft of the year right after it happened but the draft helped Dynasty a lot this year.
Drow
I didn't like my draft either after it happened -- I graded it out as the second worst.
I made the fewest selections of anyone other than Bill (who made none) but only one did not play and the rest started at least 4 games for someone this year. So this class produced almost as many starts as Dynasty's class with similar results in VOM and +/-games.
No first round pick and second round choice Marcus Wheaton did not play a snap this year. Bernard Pollard played 4 games as an average guy. Jerod Mayo played 6 games as a solid contributor. Antrel Rolle played 6 games as one of the best DBs this year. Perry Riley played 11 games as a slightly below average DF. Randy Bullock played 4 games as a bad K.
Mimes
Mimes did not get much out of their franchise class this year and would only end up acquiring 1 free agent this year so the draft was where it was at for them and they got their money's worth. With the 11 picks Mimes got the most starts from the draft (62). Eight players from this group played this year and all the guys who played started at least 4 games each. This class and Bronies' class represent the mid-tier between the top three drafts above and the more marginal drafts below.
Picked up Eddie Lacy in the first round who became the team's new bell-cow as a very solid RB over 9 games. Their other 1st rounder (Tavon Austin) did not play this year. Mimes picked up Jared Allen in the 2nd who was one of their few duds in this class. Terrell Suggs followed in the 3rd and was a very solid DF. Jairus Byrd was a 4th rounder and one of the best DBs all year. Cecil Shorts was basically an average guy from the 5th round. Later picks included two duds (Stevie Johnson and Josh Brown), one of the best kickers this year in Mason Crosby, and two guys who did not get starts this year (Geno Smith and Denard Robinson).
I gave Mimes a lot of grief after this draft for failing to franchise Dez Bryant and that was a big reason I only graded this as a marginal winner after it happened. But by itself this draft was the only reason the team was at all competitive this year and may well be the draft that makes this team relevant in the future.
Bronies
Bronies got a lot out of this class. They had the most picks (12) but only saw a modest 53 starts from those players. The class had three studs, four duds, and four prospects.
Second round picks Vincent Jackson and Jordy Nelson were solid WRs all year. Sean Lee (3rd round) was a top DF this year and played 10 games. Janorius Jenkins (4th) and David Akers (8th) were disappointments who played 10 and 11 games respectively. Devin McCourty (2nd), Alex Smith (5th), and Courtland Finnegan (6th) were disappointments who played only a combined 6 games. First rounders Giovani Bernard and DeAndre Hopkins were the jewels of this class but did not play in 2013. Late round picks Daryl Washington and Arthur Brown also did not play a snap this year for Bronies.
I loved this draft when it happened not as much for what I thought it would provide in 2013 but for the two first rounders who could be building blocks for the future.
Malleus
Malleus begins a tier of teams that did not get great value out of the draft as far as results this year but didn't sink their teams here either. Their overall success or failures this year will have been as much about franchising and free agency as about their drafts.
Malleus got at least 4 starts from their first 6 selections -- 3 were solid contributors while 3 were duds. Their last two picks (Christine Michael and Kenbrell Thompkins) did not start a game in 2013. First round pick James Laurinaitis joined 6th and 7th rounders Matt Prater and Ryan Clark as excellent values from this draft. But their value was countered by poor performances from the 3 picks in between: 3rd rounder Kam Chancellor, 4th rounder LaRon Landry, and 5th rounder Chad Greenway.
I graded this draft favorably after it happened partially on the strength of trading picks for Ronnie Hillman and Stevan Ridley neither of which worked out for Malleus. Michael and Thompkins will have to develop into stars for this draft to have been more than a wash. But it didn't really hurt the team either.
Lagers
A similar end result to Malleus but instead of evenly splitting their picks between hits and misses Lagers missed more than hit but played the hits more than the misses.
Tim Jennings (3rd round), Lance Briggs (4th), and Justin Tucker (7th) were excellent picks who played at least 8 games each with positive values over median. First rounder Montee Ball joined other negative picks Alex Henery (5th), Wesley Woodyard (5th), Patrick Robinson (6th), and Bryce Brown (8th) with negative VOM. But those positive picks played a combined 30 games while the negative picks played only 27. Dion Jordan and Ryan Broyles did not play this year.
I tagged this class as a wash when it happened and so far I've been correct. But it all really hinges on Ball's future. He played little or badly most of the year and then seemed to find some spark late in the season. But will that develop into a fantasy RB1?
Maniacs
Maniacs may have gotten the most from their picks in 2013 as far as playing time but not as far as production. With only 7 picks, 5 players saw playing time and played at least 7 games each for 48 combined starts but produced just under median value overall.
Carson Palmer was easily the biggest disappointment as their first round pick who played 8 games, not well. Stephen Gostkowski (4th round) and DeSean Jackson (2nd) were the stars of the draft. Brian Orakpo (3rd) and Jason McCourty (5th) were basically average guys. Roy Helu and Blair Walsh did not see the field in 2013.
Perhaps the most interesting part of this draft was the pre-draft trade of Trent Richardson for J.J. Watt and Victor Cruz. While all three were big name players either for their potential or past results, none of them had memorable 2013s and so I stick with my earlier assessment that this was a treading water draft.
Rednecks
Rednecks' draft was just as unproductive as Maniacs for 2013 but could have a lot more potential for the future. A couple draftees from this class were productive this year but just as many were not. However, many of the least productive are stashes for future years.
Dez Bryant was the highlight of the draft as the first overall pick in 2013. Rednecks' next three picks were more about potential then about 2013: Ryann Tannehill (2nd round), Le'veon Bell (3rd), and Marcus Lattimore (3rd) all could still develop into contributors. Of those only Bell saw any playing time in 2013. The next 5 picks did not do much good this year. The best of that bunch was Phil Dawson (5th) who played 11 games of solid kicking. Jay Cutler (4th), Chandler Jones (6th), George Wilson (7th), and Geno Atkins (8th) were some combination of disappointing and did not play much. Mike Glennon (8th) and Jon Bostic (8th) did not play at all in 2013.
This was my favorite draft at the time because of Dez and the 3 youngsters in his top 4 picks and I still think that core has a ton of potential.
Capo
Capo and Old No. 7 did not have good drafts for providing value in 2013. Both drafted 8 players but Capo played his 8 less and that helped mitigate the damage.
The only players Capo drafted that really helped anyone this year were Reggie Wayne (1st round) and D'Qwell Jackson (4th). Both played double digit games and were solid performers. Lamar Miller (2nd), Tyvon Branch (3rd), and Philip Rivers (5th) were big disappointments although Rivers only played 2 games in FLOF this year. At the back end of this draft, Capo picked up Mark Barron (6th) who was average over 10 games, Emmanual Sanders (7th) and Mike Nugent (8th) who did not play.
I liked this draft when it happened but I was clearly wrong about Lamar Miller at least for 2013 and that changed the whole complexion of this class.
Old No. 7
Now we come to what was the worst draft for 2013 production and it wasn't because they picked a lot of players to stash for the future.
Only 1st rounder Cordarrelle Patterson gets a pass as a developmental player. The next batch of picks did not produce: Steven Jackson (2nd), Calais Campbell (3rd), Casey Hayward (4th), and Brian Cushing (5th) were disappointments or did not play. The next two picks were the lone bright spots with Lardarius Webb (6th) and Joe Haden (7th) each playing 13 games very well. Then back to disappointments with 8th rounder Charles Johnson. Its the DFs that really sunk this draft with Campbell, Cushing, and Johnson playing 8, 9, and 10 games and all with negative VOMs.
I called this draft a marginal winner when it happened but Steven Jackson was not as productive or as healthy as I thought he'd be and that hurt.
Bill
Yes, Bill did not make a selection in the 2013 draft but he walked away with a lot of extra cash and turned that into the biggest haul of Free Agents this year -- both in numbers and cumulative value... which we'll talk about next.
Here's the usual chart, but then I'll look at each team's draft.
NY Hamburglers
By almost any metric I can think of Hamburglers won the draft this year -- at least based on how it contributed to their results in 2013. Hamburglers took the standard 8 draft picks and got 59 games at more than a point over median value. They also got a great ratio of 23:13 +games (top 3rd) to -games (bottom 3rd).
In round 1 and 2 Hamburglers took WRs Steve Smith and T.Y. Hilton who were average if unspectacular starters over the course of a combined 19 starts. The worst pick from a VOM perspective was Kicker Matt Bryant in the 4th round with a VOM of -0.9 over 10 games. But two big defensive picks carried this draft class: Paul Posluzny in the 5th and DeAngelo Hall in the 8th. Both players had excellent value and played a majority of their opportunities.
After this draft happened I graded it as a marginal win, which was clearly an undervaluing.
Dynasty
Dynasty's first draft was interesting by the numbers. They ended up making 11 picks but only 6 played and only 3 played more than 2 games so they only got 34 starts out of the class, which is the lowest ratio of any draft this year. But the starts they got were only bested by Hamburglers in terms of Value Over Median at exactly 1 point over per start.
I poked fun at Dynasty's first round pick of Vernon Davis, but he was a solid contributor if only for 6 games due to injury. Lavonte David was the star of this draft class starting 11 games as one of the best DFs of the year. Dan Bailey was a kicker who didn't suck and started 13 games as the last major contributor.
I graded this as the worst draft of the year right after it happened but the draft helped Dynasty a lot this year.
Drow
I didn't like my draft either after it happened -- I graded it out as the second worst.
I made the fewest selections of anyone other than Bill (who made none) but only one did not play and the rest started at least 4 games for someone this year. So this class produced almost as many starts as Dynasty's class with similar results in VOM and +/-games.
No first round pick and second round choice Marcus Wheaton did not play a snap this year. Bernard Pollard played 4 games as an average guy. Jerod Mayo played 6 games as a solid contributor. Antrel Rolle played 6 games as one of the best DBs this year. Perry Riley played 11 games as a slightly below average DF. Randy Bullock played 4 games as a bad K.
Mimes
Mimes did not get much out of their franchise class this year and would only end up acquiring 1 free agent this year so the draft was where it was at for them and they got their money's worth. With the 11 picks Mimes got the most starts from the draft (62). Eight players from this group played this year and all the guys who played started at least 4 games each. This class and Bronies' class represent the mid-tier between the top three drafts above and the more marginal drafts below.
Picked up Eddie Lacy in the first round who became the team's new bell-cow as a very solid RB over 9 games. Their other 1st rounder (Tavon Austin) did not play this year. Mimes picked up Jared Allen in the 2nd who was one of their few duds in this class. Terrell Suggs followed in the 3rd and was a very solid DF. Jairus Byrd was a 4th rounder and one of the best DBs all year. Cecil Shorts was basically an average guy from the 5th round. Later picks included two duds (Stevie Johnson and Josh Brown), one of the best kickers this year in Mason Crosby, and two guys who did not get starts this year (Geno Smith and Denard Robinson).
I gave Mimes a lot of grief after this draft for failing to franchise Dez Bryant and that was a big reason I only graded this as a marginal winner after it happened. But by itself this draft was the only reason the team was at all competitive this year and may well be the draft that makes this team relevant in the future.
Bronies
Bronies got a lot out of this class. They had the most picks (12) but only saw a modest 53 starts from those players. The class had three studs, four duds, and four prospects.
Second round picks Vincent Jackson and Jordy Nelson were solid WRs all year. Sean Lee (3rd round) was a top DF this year and played 10 games. Janorius Jenkins (4th) and David Akers (8th) were disappointments who played 10 and 11 games respectively. Devin McCourty (2nd), Alex Smith (5th), and Courtland Finnegan (6th) were disappointments who played only a combined 6 games. First rounders Giovani Bernard and DeAndre Hopkins were the jewels of this class but did not play in 2013. Late round picks Daryl Washington and Arthur Brown also did not play a snap this year for Bronies.
I loved this draft when it happened not as much for what I thought it would provide in 2013 but for the two first rounders who could be building blocks for the future.
Malleus
Malleus begins a tier of teams that did not get great value out of the draft as far as results this year but didn't sink their teams here either. Their overall success or failures this year will have been as much about franchising and free agency as about their drafts.
Malleus got at least 4 starts from their first 6 selections -- 3 were solid contributors while 3 were duds. Their last two picks (Christine Michael and Kenbrell Thompkins) did not start a game in 2013. First round pick James Laurinaitis joined 6th and 7th rounders Matt Prater and Ryan Clark as excellent values from this draft. But their value was countered by poor performances from the 3 picks in between: 3rd rounder Kam Chancellor, 4th rounder LaRon Landry, and 5th rounder Chad Greenway.
I graded this draft favorably after it happened partially on the strength of trading picks for Ronnie Hillman and Stevan Ridley neither of which worked out for Malleus. Michael and Thompkins will have to develop into stars for this draft to have been more than a wash. But it didn't really hurt the team either.
Lagers
A similar end result to Malleus but instead of evenly splitting their picks between hits and misses Lagers missed more than hit but played the hits more than the misses.
Tim Jennings (3rd round), Lance Briggs (4th), and Justin Tucker (7th) were excellent picks who played at least 8 games each with positive values over median. First rounder Montee Ball joined other negative picks Alex Henery (5th), Wesley Woodyard (5th), Patrick Robinson (6th), and Bryce Brown (8th) with negative VOM. But those positive picks played a combined 30 games while the negative picks played only 27. Dion Jordan and Ryan Broyles did not play this year.
I tagged this class as a wash when it happened and so far I've been correct. But it all really hinges on Ball's future. He played little or badly most of the year and then seemed to find some spark late in the season. But will that develop into a fantasy RB1?
Maniacs
Maniacs may have gotten the most from their picks in 2013 as far as playing time but not as far as production. With only 7 picks, 5 players saw playing time and played at least 7 games each for 48 combined starts but produced just under median value overall.
Carson Palmer was easily the biggest disappointment as their first round pick who played 8 games, not well. Stephen Gostkowski (4th round) and DeSean Jackson (2nd) were the stars of the draft. Brian Orakpo (3rd) and Jason McCourty (5th) were basically average guys. Roy Helu and Blair Walsh did not see the field in 2013.
Perhaps the most interesting part of this draft was the pre-draft trade of Trent Richardson for J.J. Watt and Victor Cruz. While all three were big name players either for their potential or past results, none of them had memorable 2013s and so I stick with my earlier assessment that this was a treading water draft.
Rednecks
Rednecks' draft was just as unproductive as Maniacs for 2013 but could have a lot more potential for the future. A couple draftees from this class were productive this year but just as many were not. However, many of the least productive are stashes for future years.
Dez Bryant was the highlight of the draft as the first overall pick in 2013. Rednecks' next three picks were more about potential then about 2013: Ryann Tannehill (2nd round), Le'veon Bell (3rd), and Marcus Lattimore (3rd) all could still develop into contributors. Of those only Bell saw any playing time in 2013. The next 5 picks did not do much good this year. The best of that bunch was Phil Dawson (5th) who played 11 games of solid kicking. Jay Cutler (4th), Chandler Jones (6th), George Wilson (7th), and Geno Atkins (8th) were some combination of disappointing and did not play much. Mike Glennon (8th) and Jon Bostic (8th) did not play at all in 2013.
This was my favorite draft at the time because of Dez and the 3 youngsters in his top 4 picks and I still think that core has a ton of potential.
Capo
Capo and Old No. 7 did not have good drafts for providing value in 2013. Both drafted 8 players but Capo played his 8 less and that helped mitigate the damage.
The only players Capo drafted that really helped anyone this year were Reggie Wayne (1st round) and D'Qwell Jackson (4th). Both played double digit games and were solid performers. Lamar Miller (2nd), Tyvon Branch (3rd), and Philip Rivers (5th) were big disappointments although Rivers only played 2 games in FLOF this year. At the back end of this draft, Capo picked up Mark Barron (6th) who was average over 10 games, Emmanual Sanders (7th) and Mike Nugent (8th) who did not play.
I liked this draft when it happened but I was clearly wrong about Lamar Miller at least for 2013 and that changed the whole complexion of this class.
Old No. 7
Now we come to what was the worst draft for 2013 production and it wasn't because they picked a lot of players to stash for the future.
Only 1st rounder Cordarrelle Patterson gets a pass as a developmental player. The next batch of picks did not produce: Steven Jackson (2nd), Calais Campbell (3rd), Casey Hayward (4th), and Brian Cushing (5th) were disappointments or did not play. The next two picks were the lone bright spots with Lardarius Webb (6th) and Joe Haden (7th) each playing 13 games very well. Then back to disappointments with 8th rounder Charles Johnson. Its the DFs that really sunk this draft with Campbell, Cushing, and Johnson playing 8, 9, and 10 games and all with negative VOMs.
I called this draft a marginal winner when it happened but Steven Jackson was not as productive or as healthy as I thought he'd be and that hurt.
Bill
Yes, Bill did not make a selection in the 2013 draft but he walked away with a lot of extra cash and turned that into the biggest haul of Free Agents this year -- both in numbers and cumulative value... which we'll talk about next.
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