League Awards
First, some fun counting. Teams ranked by the number of pro-bowl players:
Drow (3, 2 first team)
Lagers (3, 1 first team)
Bronies (3)
Malleus (2.7)
Hamburglers (2, 2 first team)
Old No. 7 (1, 1 first team)
Maniacs (1, 1 first team)
Dynasty (1, 1 first team)
Mimes (1)
Capo (0.3)
Bill (0)
Rednecks (0)
Lets get the most obvious awards out of the way now:
MVP of the league:
Peyton Manning (No.7)
Runner Up:
Calvin Johnson (ICL)
Offensive MVP:
Peyton Manning (No.7)
Runner Up:
Calvin Johnson (ICL)
Defensive MVP:
Paul Posluszny (NY)
Runner Up:
Vontaze Burfict (Dyn)
Peyton seems pretty obvious. That said, one thing I like to do when comparing players at different positions is to look at each player's value over median because it tends to compensate for different positions and their relative median scores.
Sure, Peyton Manning scored a median of 27 points per game. But QBs tend to score more than anyone else. A median QB score over the last 2 years is 15. At any other position that would be an excellent game not an average game. But Peyton was scoring 12 points above the median. No one else had a median that was double digits above their position's median. Adrian Peterson was the only one close at 9 points above his position's median, but I didn't think AP was even a pro-bowl RB this year. After AP, Calvin Johnson and Josh Gordon were the next two highest in that category with 7 above median for Johnson and 8 above for Gordon.
Peyton also had an excellent overall ratio of top 3rd games to bottom 3rd games which is normalized for position (10 top 3rd and 1 bottom 3rd in 13 games). Paul Posluszny probably had the next best numbers of the top contenders for the all around MVP award. With almost the same breakdowns but he only scored 5.5 points over median. Peyton was the most valuable, it was an easy call. I gave Calvin the runner-up because his numbers were the next best of the top players from each other position.
On defensive side I thought the two top DFs just outdid their DB counterparts.
Coach of the Year:
Jamien (Dyn)
Runner-Up:
Doug (Drw)
This has always been one of my favorite awards but a hard one to pin down. I think in the past some people would just vote for the team with the best record. But I always liked to look at the difference in how the team performed to the year previously.
Using Estimated Win Percentiles from the the two years, 4 coaches improved their teams from 2012 to 2013: Jamien (+ 19.8%), Doug (+18.2%), Jason (+13.5%), and John (+5.8%). Everyone else's team had a worse EWP this year than they did last year.
EWP does not always reflect in actual records but last year's Flannel went 5-9 and was last in the Middle. Dynasty went 8-6 won the division and went to the FLOF Bowl. That's a pretty solid improvement.
Drow also showed improvement on the field. They won the 2012 FLOF Bowl due to a late season run but were not as good during the 2012 regular season going 8-6 and making the playoffs as the top wild card. This year they went 12-2, won their division, and claimed the top overall seed before winning the FLOF Bowl again.
Jason deserves an honorable mention. While the team had the same 6-8 record as last year, the team's record did not reflect their talent on the field. They had the second worst luck based on expected wins (7.9) against actual wins (6). Last year their 6 wins was exactly what they probably should have had.
Drow (3, 2 first team)
Lagers (3, 1 first team)
Bronies (3)
Malleus (2.7)
Hamburglers (2, 2 first team)
Old No. 7 (1, 1 first team)
Maniacs (1, 1 first team)
Dynasty (1, 1 first team)
Mimes (1)
Capo (0.3)
Bill (0)
Rednecks (0)
* Forte played 1/3 of his games for Capo and the rest for Malleus.
Lets get the most obvious awards out of the way now:
MVP of the league:
Peyton Manning (No.7)
Runner Up:
Calvin Johnson (ICL)
Offensive MVP:
Peyton Manning (No.7)
Runner Up:
Calvin Johnson (ICL)
Defensive MVP:
Paul Posluszny (NY)
Runner Up:
Vontaze Burfict (Dyn)
Peyton seems pretty obvious. That said, one thing I like to do when comparing players at different positions is to look at each player's value over median because it tends to compensate for different positions and their relative median scores.
Sure, Peyton Manning scored a median of 27 points per game. But QBs tend to score more than anyone else. A median QB score over the last 2 years is 15. At any other position that would be an excellent game not an average game. But Peyton was scoring 12 points above the median. No one else had a median that was double digits above their position's median. Adrian Peterson was the only one close at 9 points above his position's median, but I didn't think AP was even a pro-bowl RB this year. After AP, Calvin Johnson and Josh Gordon were the next two highest in that category with 7 above median for Johnson and 8 above for Gordon.
Peyton also had an excellent overall ratio of top 3rd games to bottom 3rd games which is normalized for position (10 top 3rd and 1 bottom 3rd in 13 games). Paul Posluszny probably had the next best numbers of the top contenders for the all around MVP award. With almost the same breakdowns but he only scored 5.5 points over median. Peyton was the most valuable, it was an easy call. I gave Calvin the runner-up because his numbers were the next best of the top players from each other position.
On defensive side I thought the two top DFs just outdid their DB counterparts.
Coach of the Year:
Jamien (Dyn)
Runner-Up:
Doug (Drw)
This has always been one of my favorite awards but a hard one to pin down. I think in the past some people would just vote for the team with the best record. But I always liked to look at the difference in how the team performed to the year previously.
Using Estimated Win Percentiles from the the two years, 4 coaches improved their teams from 2012 to 2013: Jamien (+ 19.8%), Doug (+18.2%), Jason (+13.5%), and John (+5.8%). Everyone else's team had a worse EWP this year than they did last year.
EWP does not always reflect in actual records but last year's Flannel went 5-9 and was last in the Middle. Dynasty went 8-6 won the division and went to the FLOF Bowl. That's a pretty solid improvement.
Drow also showed improvement on the field. They won the 2012 FLOF Bowl due to a late season run but were not as good during the 2012 regular season going 8-6 and making the playoffs as the top wild card. This year they went 12-2, won their division, and claimed the top overall seed before winning the FLOF Bowl again.
Jason deserves an honorable mention. While the team had the same 6-8 record as last year, the team's record did not reflect their talent on the field. They had the second worst luck based on expected wins (7.9) against actual wins (6). Last year their 6 wins was exactly what they probably should have had.


1 Comments:
Obviously I disagree with your choice of runner up for Defensive MVP. :-) Otherwise, everyone else is about what I would have expected.
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