Doug's Pro Bowl WRs

Previously: QBs | RBs

Thirty-one different WRs provided positive value over the median in FLOF this year.  That's a lot more than QBs and RBs, but I'm not too surprised by that.  Some of it is just supply and demand.  There are a lot more WRS in the NFL and we start 2 WRs per team per week in FLOF so a lot more stat accumulation occurs.  And this made it pretty hard for me to pick the top WRs in the league.

WRs
1st Team: Calvin Johnson (ICL), Josh Gordon (Drw)
2nd Team: Jimmy Graham (Bro), Demaryius Thomas (ICL)

I said picking these players was hard, but the 1st team actually was not hard.  Calvin Johnson and Josh Gordon were a step ahead of everyone else.  They were the only 2 WRs whose median score (Johnson: 11, Gordon: 12) was in the top 1/6th of WR scores over the last two years and a full 2-3 points higher than everyone else's median score this year.  They also had the top two total values over median for the year (Johnson: 81, Gordon 74) despite both missing a few games this year and the top two VOM per game as well (Johnson: 8.1, Gordon 8.2).  They also had very good ratios of top third scores.  Seven of Johnson's 10 games were 7+ points.  6 of Gordon's 9 games were 7+ points.  Both players had only one game under 2 points.

The second team was harder to parse for me because there were a lot of good WRs this year.

Ten WRs had a median score over 7 (top third).  Seven WRs contributed 4+ value over median per game -- that's double the median score of 4 for a WR.  Eleven WRs had more top third scores than middle third or bottom third scores.  That's 12 different WRs that I though really excelled in one of my metrics.  Two were already on the first team.

Two I dropped from consideration because excelled in only one of the metrics.  Dez Bryant had 5 top 3rd scores over 10 games but 2 bottom 3rd scores, his value over median per game was 3.5 -- good, not great -- and his median score was 6 -- again good, not great.  Alshon Jeffery contributed 4.3 value over median and did not have a single game under 2 pts but only had 3 top 3rd games in 8 efforts and also had a median score of 6.  Jeffery's VOM per game was largely due to a single 28 pt effort.

Larry Fitzgerald and Wesley Welker had good median scores (Fitz: 9, Welker: 8) and decent numbers of top 3rd scores (Fitz: 5/7, Welker: 7/12) but they also had multiple bottom 3rd scores (Fitz: 2/7, Welker: 3/12) and lower VOM per games (Fitz: 3.4, Welker: 2.9).  They were my next tier removed from contention for the 2nd team.

The next four WRs just missed out on selection to my Pro Bowl.  Julius Thomas had great numbers but only played 3 games.  His lowest score was a 7, his median was an 8, and he contributed an average of 7 points above median each of those 3 games he played.  Brandon Marshall was a serious contender for the 2nd team and his numbers were excellent (7/10 top 3rd, no bottom 3rd, +4 VOM per game, median score: 7) but I ranked him just below Demaryius Thomas.  A.J. Green had a slightly lower VOM per game (+3.9) but otherwise had good numbers (6/11 top 3rd, 1/11 bottom 3rd, median score 8).  Same for Rob Gronkowski (+3.8 VOM per game) and also only played 4 games (3/4 top 3rd, 1/4 bottom 3rd, median score 9).

That brings us to Jimmy Graham and Demaryius Thomas who both had very good seasons in all respects just not as good as Mr.s Johnson and Gordon.  Graham: 7/11 top 3rd scores, 1/11 bottom 3rd, 5.4 VOM per game, median score 8.  Thomas: 7/13 top 3rd scores, 1/13 bottom 3rd, 4.9 VOM per game, median score 8.

And there was a long tail to WRs as well.  Nineteen other WRs contributed positive value to their teams this year for a total of 31 WRs that did something good.  And one that broke even in Value Over Median.

Only 18 WRs had negative Value Over Median.  But there were two that really stood out: Marques Colston and Hakeem Nicks.  Of WRs who played at least 6 games this year, these were the only two who ended up hurting their team by more than a points per game.  Colston played 8 games and his median score was a 3.  He averaged 1.4 points under the median score for a WR.  Hakeem Nicks was worse.  Nicks played 9 games and did not once produce a top 3rd score.  His median score was a 2 -- 2 points below median.

Tomorrow: Ks.  (I promise to keep that one short.)