Doug's Pro Bowl Ks
Ks
1st Team: Stephen Gostkowski (Man)
2nd Team: Mason Crosby (MM)
Gostkowski was far and away the best kicker this year. He had 8 top 3rd scores in 13 games and no bottom third scores. His value over median per game was 2.4 points. His median score was a 10.
Crosby had some competition for the 2nd team. He had an excellent VOM per game of +2.3 pts but his median score was in fact the median (8) and he had only 4 top 3rd scores in 10 tries. However he also only had 1 bottom 3rd score in 10 tries.
Matt Prater was the other guy I considered here. He had a better median score (10) and more top 3rd scores (6/11) but also had more bottom 3rd (3/11) and a worse VOM per game at +1.6.
In total 7 kickers contributed something to their teams this year, 12 performed below median, and Garrett Hartley was exactly median.
The three worst kickers that played 6 or more games were Sebastian Janikowski, Mike Nugent, and David Akers. Akers had the worst Value Over Median per game score of -1.4. So every game Akers played he lost his team an average of 1.5 points...
... And here's why kickers don't matter. The best kicker was essentially worth 2.4 points over the median and the worst was worth 1.4 below. That's a spread of 3.8. For QBs that spread was 20 pts. For RBs that spread was 9.5 pts. For WRs that spread was 10.2 and the median score for a WR is half that of a kicker.
Not only is the difference between the best and worst kickers small, there really weren't that many in either category. Only three kickers provided more than 1 point per game over the median on average. And only 3 provided worse than 1 point per game under the median. So really, it almost did not matter who you started at K as long as they were a gainfully employed in the NFL.
Finally. Did we notice that the 2nd team kicker had a median score that was the same as the median score for every kicker game over the last 2 years? Our second best kicker this year was mostly the same as everyone else, he just had a few more big games to his credit.
I hope this is the last time I see a kicker on a franchise list :)
Next Week: Defense and League Wide Awards


2 Comments:
So franchising Dawson and Novak for next year wasn't a good idea?!
It is unlikely to be the last time. I'm just saying, I still have a slot open. :-)
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