Week 12 Rankings; Projections; Playoff Update

Dynasty, Drow, and Lagers are not only the cream of the crop in this week's rankings, they are the only three teams with an estimated win percentage above .500.  Which means about what it sounds like -- the rest of the league have just not played well over the last 4 weeks.

Those top three teams have scored 7 blue or red games -- the top 1/3 of scores over the last 2 years (red games represent the top 1/6; blue games the top 2/6).  The other 9 teams in the league managed 3 such games over the same span.

Of course these things can change and in any given week who knows what will happen as illustrated by Lager's 28 point outing in week 9 and Rednecks 98 point outing last week.

Playoffs!

Division Champs:
Drow and Bill both clinched their divisions this week.  Drow still have the inside track for the #1 seed but Bill is lurking a game behind.  Drow hold the tie-breaker but if they lose out and Bill wins out, Bill would take the #1 seed.  With Drow and Bill in as division champs, Dynasty is now locked into the 3 seed and will face the last wild card team in the first round of the playoffs.  Drow and Bill will get byes in the first round.

Wild Card:
Lagers and Hamburglers have clinched wild card spots but they could be any of the three available.  The final wild card spot currently sits in Mimes' hands but their game against Bronies this week will decide if they get to keep it.  A Mimes' win against Bronies will clinch a wild card berth for Mimes'.  A win by Bronies will give Bronies the inside track to that last wild card position but will push resolution of the issue to the final week of the season.  Correction: a Bronies win will keep them alive, but they would still need to win their last game and have Mimes lose their last game.

Malleus, Capo, Old No. 7, and Rednecks have all been eliminated from playoff contention.  Old No. 7 could end up tied with Mimes and maybe Maniacs as well for that last wild card spot but lose all tie-breakers (lost head-to-head against Mimes and has a worse record against other playoff teams).  Maniacs still have a chance, but need help.  If Maniacs win their last two games AND Mimes lose both of their last two games AND Bronies lose their last game (after defeating Mimes this week) AND Old No. 7 loses at least one of their last two games (because if Mimes, Old No. 7, and Maniacs end up in a 3-way tie the head-to-head records tie-breaker is a push and Maniacs would lose the record against other playoff teams tie-breaker) then both Mimes and they would end up 6-8 and Maniacs beat Mimes back in week 4.

Predictions:
Obviously the game of the week is Bronies @ Mimes and the computer likes Mimes, but not by much.  In fact, it predicts that this will be the closest game of the week.  Here are all of the computer's predictions for this week as well:

Bronies @ Mimes (55%)

Malleus @ Dynasty (66%)
Drow (64%) @ Rednecks
Maniacs @ Hamburglers (59%)
Lagers (56%) @ Bill
Capo @ Old No. 7 (56%)

Last week the computer went 3-3 to run its season record to 39-30-3.  17-12-1 when it has 60% confidence.