Week 11 Rankings, Week 12 Predictions & the Playoff Update

Lagers took over the top spot this week after another great performance.  Dynasty was the big mover -- increasing their Estimated Win Percentage nearly 21% and jumping up four ranking spots to number 2.  Bronies were the big fallers after shaving 20% off their EWP.

Last week the computer went 4-1-1.  Ironically the loss and tie were from its two most confident predictions.  Computer's season record goes to 36-27-3 (54%) -- 15-10-1 when 60% or more confident (58%).  Week 12's predictions:

Lagers (75%) @ Maniacs
Hamburglers @ Dynasty (75%)
Bronies @ Drow (67%)
Rednecks @ Old No. 7 (60%)
Bill @ Malleus (52%)
Mimes (by less then 1%) @ Capo

Playoffs

Middle Division: Dynasty is the first to clinch their division.  Old No. 7 is now the only other middle division team that can finish with a winning record but they have lost both games to Dynasty already this year.  Dynasty could end up as either the 2 or 3 seed.  They lost previously to Bill so they would have to win out and have Bill drop their last 3 games to leap-frog them into a first round bye.

Left Division: Drow's magic number remains 1 after losing while Lagers won.  However, Lagers would also need a lot of help because they would lose the tie-breaker relating to other playoff teams unless Hamburglers miss the playoffs (Drow beat NY and Lagers did not) or Old No. 7 does (Drow lost to and Lagers beat).  Drow will still do no worse than the 2 seed if they win the division.

Right Division: Hamburglers' chance for the division crown took a hit this weekend after losing to Bill.  Bill's magic number is now 1.  Mimes and Rednecks have been eliminated from contention for the division.  Bill still has a chance to wrestle the top seed away from Drow as well.

Wild Cards: Drow and Bill have actually clinched at least a wild card berth this week.  But we will otherwise assume that they will win their divisions instead of taking up wild card spots.  If the season ended today their last competition for their divisions would end up with the first two wild card spots: Lagers and Hamburglers.  The computer predicts that will not change over the next 3 weeks.

That 3rd and final wild card spot is where the action will likely be right up to the last week of the season.  Right now Mimes hold the final spot -- a half-game ahead of Bronies and one game ahead of both Old No. 7 and Maniacs.  The computer projects that they will hold onto that spot but Bronies still control their own destiny and would be guaranteed a wild card spot if they win out.

Without doing too much math no one has been eliminated from contention for that last wild card spot, but a Mimes win over Capo this week would eliminate Capo and Rednecks from the playoffs.