Week 12 Computer Rankings and Predictions

Computer Rankings for Week 12

	med	avg	var
Malleus	.85	.75	.30
Flannel	.84	.70	.36
NY	.77	.69	.23
Rednecks	.71	.57	.32
Drow	.62	.61	.18
Beav	.51	.51	.15
Roger	.49	.46	.20
Mimes	.44	.42	.36
Bill	.42	.43	.30
Capo	.32	.28	.09
IC Lagers	.30	.42	.36
No. 7	.26	.25	.20

Previously I've used my computer model to predict cumulative wins over the rest of the season.  Normally when the model suggest that I have a 41% chance to beat Hamburglers this week I give myself 41% of a win and add that to the rest of my games for the end of the season and then say that I should win 6.5 games by the end of the year.  With 3 games left, I am just going to give myself a loss for that 41% and move on.

So, the computer says: Malleus, Beavers, and Flannel will all cruise to their division titles -- Malleus and Beavers gaining the first round byes.  Rednecks will also cruise to the first wild card spot.

After that it gets interesting.  The computer predicts a 3-way tie for the last two playoff spots after Ramjets and Drow win 2 more games each and Lagers drop 3 in a row.  Tie-breakers in this scenario would give Ramjets and Drow the nods for the last 2 spots and leave Lagers on the outside after an epic 4-game season ending collapse.  That said, the computer is giving Drow only a 52% chance to beat Rednecks in 2 weeks and if that game goes the other way, Lagers would be back in the playoffs despite the collapse.