Week 5 Preview

Drow @ Mimes
I have these teams graded as the top 2 in FLOF despite both losing last week.  The winner will be at least tied for the division lead.  Drow have the better record but most of that is opponent luck as Mimes have consistently scored better only to have their opponents come up with career days the last 2 weeks.
4-game trends give Mimes a 60% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Drow 22 - Mimes 20


Beavers @ Lagers
Both teams are coming off upset wins over more heralded division rivals and can pick up their second division win this week.  Lagers could be in a 3-way tie for the division lead if they win and Mimes win.  But Beavers can ill afford to fall back to 1-4 this early in the season.

4-game trends give Lagers a 54% chance to win

Yahoo predicts Lagers 6 - Beavers 2

CAPO @ Rednecks

Both teams have 2 wins.  CAPO sit atop their division but have yet to beat a team outside their division although they drew the tie against Bill last week.  Rednecks are fighting for wins in the ultra-tight Middle Division.

4-game trends give CAPO a 51% chance to win

Yahoo predicts Rednecks 22 - CAPO 11

Hamburglers @ Malleus

Upset alert!  As the hammer is cranked back into place, in comes a team that just knocked off previously unbeaten Old No. 7.

4-game trends give Malleus a 62% chance to win

Yahoo predicts Malleus 15 - Hamburglers 10

Ramjets @ Old No. 7

Both teams are looking to bounce back after bad games... or 2.  Old No. 7 need to play more like weeks 1-3 then week 4 and Ramjets need to play more like the first 2 weeks and less like the last 2.

4-game trends give Old No. 7 a 71% chance to win

Yahoo predicts Old No. 7 25 - Ramjets 10

Flannel @ Bill

Both teams are only 1/2 game behind their division's leader and just above two teams nipping at their heels.  Although neither team is playing particularly well right now, the wheels seem to have completely come off the Flannel bus this week whose starting QB got benched last week and their starting RB got hurt.

4-game trends give Bill a 55% chance to win

Yahoo predicts Bill 24 - Flannel 0

* Note on how these predictions are made.

* 4-game trends looks at the 4 most recent game scores by a team and assigns them an expected win percentage.  For example, based on recent score distributions I know that a total score of 87+ has about a 95% chance to produce a win.  Then I compare the composite expected win percentages for those 4 games against the percentage for their opponent and add 2% to the home team (in recent history the home team wins 2% more often then the away team).

* Yahoo predictions are based on looking at Yahoo's player predictions, adding them all up and doing math.  I assume that everyone will play the player Yahoo gives the highest predictions at that position, even though I know we don't always do that... sometimes to our benefit.