Computer Rankings 2011 Debut

If we consider John's rankings as the equivalent of a coach's poll, I'm here to bring you the computer rankings.  Using FLOF scores from last year and this year I convert every total score over the last 4 weeks into a percentile that is effectively that score's chance to beat any other score that has occurred recently in FLOF.  I use these scores to create an Expected Win Percentage.  So, if you score 72 total points you have a 50/50 chance to win.  If you score 96 points you have an 83% chance to win, etc.  Using this method I rank our teams at the half way flag.

	median	average	variance
Capo	.74	.68	.19
Drow	.71	.75	.15
Bill	.53	.54	.18
Beav	.51	.54	.28
Roger	.48	.49	.31
Malleus	.44	.43	.17
IC Lagers	.41	.45	.27
Mimes	.41	.42	.19
NY	.37	.47	.24
Rednecks	.34	.35	.29
No. 7	.34	.35	.26
Flannel	.20	.27	.28

Then I used this information to predict the rest of the season.  Here's the computer's predictions:

Left:
Drow 9.1 wins, division crown
Lagers 7.8 wins, wild card
Beavers 7.0 wins
Mimes 6.6 wins

Middle:
Malleus 9.8 wins, division crown, bye
Rednecks 8.0 wins, wild card
Bill 7.5 wins
Old No. 7  5.5 wins

Right
CAPO 9.1 wins, division crown, bye
Ramjets 8.0 wins, wild card
Flannel 5.5 wins
Hamburglers 4.8 wins