Week 14 & End Season Rankings (aka chart porn)
Time for our final league-wide EWP table.
The big story is that Drow and Dynasty have collapsed down the stretch while Rednecks have exploded. Over their last four weeks, last year's FLOF Bowl participants have been mostly unspectacular and occasionally terrible. Rednecks, on the other hand, have two 190+ point games in a row to finish the season.
This next table shows each team's EWP based on the entire 14-game regular season, instead of the rolling 4-game data I use during the season to make predictions with. Rednecks are not only the hottest team right now, they have been the best all season by a decent margin.
On the right side of the above table, you can see what EWP would have expected for the team's season. This is -- by my definition -- the difference between actual results and what I call luck. The only team that seemed to fail to make the playoffs based on some form of luck was Old No. 7 who played well enough all season long but lost the spot to the luckiest team in FLOF this year: Hamburglers. The only other difference between expectations and actual results for the playoffs is seeding among the division winners. Dynasty got the #1 seed based to some degree on the 2nd best luck in FLOF this year.
In fact, the entire Middle Division was a bit lucky this year. The table below shows the EWP for each division as a whole and then the actual win percentage for each division. The Middle Division was the best division in FLOF this year by a slight margin over the Left and then slightly outperformed that ranking while the Middle underperformed their's.
Finally, a quick look at how each team did this year in comparison to last year by comparing season long EWPs. One nice thing about EWP is that it can help us compare last year and this year without having to deal with the massive scoring changes. The 2013 results are based on the data before this year and this year's data is based only on this year's data. Interestingly, four teams saw large improvement from last year to this year and everyone else saw some regression.
John's team was clearly the most improved as his EWP nearly doubled from last year to this. New owners Brian and Chris also did yeoman's work on their teams in year 1.
This next table shows each team's EWP based on the entire 14-game regular season, instead of the rolling 4-game data I use during the season to make predictions with. Rednecks are not only the hottest team right now, they have been the best all season by a decent margin.
On the right side of the above table, you can see what EWP would have expected for the team's season. This is -- by my definition -- the difference between actual results and what I call luck. The only team that seemed to fail to make the playoffs based on some form of luck was Old No. 7 who played well enough all season long but lost the spot to the luckiest team in FLOF this year: Hamburglers. The only other difference between expectations and actual results for the playoffs is seeding among the division winners. Dynasty got the #1 seed based to some degree on the 2nd best luck in FLOF this year.
In fact, the entire Middle Division was a bit lucky this year. The table below shows the EWP for each division as a whole and then the actual win percentage for each division. The Middle Division was the best division in FLOF this year by a slight margin over the Left and then slightly outperformed that ranking while the Middle underperformed their's.
Finally, a quick look at how each team did this year in comparison to last year by comparing season long EWPs. One nice thing about EWP is that it can help us compare last year and this year without having to deal with the massive scoring changes. The 2013 results are based on the data before this year and this year's data is based only on this year's data. Interestingly, four teams saw large improvement from last year to this year and everyone else saw some regression.
John's team was clearly the most improved as his EWP nearly doubled from last year to this. New owners Brian and Chris also did yeoman's work on their teams in year 1.
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