FLOF Blog

Great Year FloF-ers!

2012-01-20T08:53:00.003-05:00

Great year everyone in FLoF!

Two things I wanted to say before we all enjoy the off-season:
1) Congratulations to Tim on a not only a great season (and even greater playoff run) but for turning a terrible team into a force to be reckoned with. It takes a lot of work, and in Tim's case, really smart drafting. Lagers will be a good team for a long time. Great article too.
2) Congratulations to Steve for getting to the FLoF bowl despite losing Peterson and having a mess at the QB position. Despite my sore-loser-induced smack-talking, the Beavers may have been the second best team in FLoF this year, and deserved to be in the Championship. By the way, I would've played Tebow also, especially after what he did against the Steelers, Tim just wasn't giving anyone a chance in the playoffs this year.

Iron City Celebrates First FLOF Title

2012-01-16T11:29:00.001-05:00

Bushkill residents left to wonder "what if . . ."

(UPI - January 15, 2012) The Iron City Lagers earned their first ever FLOF title with a resounding 86-4 victory over the Fightin' Bitin' Beavers. Led by Matthew Stafford, Arian Foster and Calvin Johnson, the Lagers jumped out to a massive lead early and never looked back.

"This is simply a wonderful day for the franchise and for our fans," Iron City owner Tim Mossman said following the game. "When we moved the team to Iron City, we had a three year 'vision' to resurrect the downtrodden Bushkill Brawlers franchise and bring them to a point where we could be contending for championships. Today is a validation of that plan."

The Lagers just completed their 3rd season in Iron City after relocating the Brawlers under new ownership. Only Matt Cassel (currently on IR) remains from the roster that moved from Bushkill, although former Brawlers Brian Urlacher and Trent Cole did return to the roster this year.

Last year, the Lagers reached the championship game, but ran out of gas against Malleus Maleficarum.

This year, the Lagers fought through some key injuries in the regular season to claim a wild card berth to the playoffs. Once the playoffs started, however, Iron City caught fire and advanced through the Rednecks (106-12) in the wild card round and then avenged last year's defeat, downing Malleus in the semi-finals (45-28), before advancing to face the Beavers in the title game.

The Beavers franchise was also playing in its 2nd ever title game, but its first appearance since 1998, when they defeated Roger's Ramjets 33-0. The Beavers defeated the Lagers twice in the regular season, but failed to find any answers to slow down the team that was playing its best in the waning days of the season.

"Despite today's result, I'm very proud of the season that our guys posted this year," Beavers owner Steve Schillinger said. "We did a very effective job in slowing down Roddy White, but maybe we focused too much effort on White."

"After we fell behind by so much, so early, we hoped a little Tebow lightning would strike again. But it was not to be."

Stafford, a 2009 first round pick of the Lagers, led all scorers with 34. Foster, the 2010 Lager first round selection, tallied 27. Johnson, acquired in 2009 via trade from the Beavers for Marques Colston, posted 25.

Meanwhile, in sleepy Bushkill, the former Brawler faithful were left to wonder what could have been.

Written by Tim Mossman.

Lagers blow away Beavers for their first title

2012-01-16T09:06:00.000-05:00

In just 3rd years, the Lagers have appeared in 2 FLoF Bowls, and winning their first title this year. The game wasn't even close as Tim's team pilled on the points last week and sent the Beavers into a hole they never recovered from. Even though the Lagers scored practically no defensive points, the offensive output was more than enough from an offensively-challenged Beaver's squad, and this will offically go down as the most lopsided championship game ever.
Congrats Tim!

The FLOF Bowl that should've been

2012-01-15T11:46:00.002-05:00

I know you are all wondering: "What would have happened if the best teams had been playing in the FLOF Bowl, instead of Steve?" Well folks, we would have had the best game in recent memory. The current score as I write this the morning before the last games, is Malleus 79 (92-16) to Lagers 80 (109-29), with Ray Rice being the only player left to play. Anyone who thinks that Tim would have easily won this year with his streaking team, would probably be wrong. This is why I wanted a rematch. The Hammer will see you next year Tim.

In other news, Steve decided to play Tebow, and why not? it's not like he's going to win. Unfortunately, Tebow scored a whopping -2 vs. Alex Smith scoring 29 and my prediction of Tim winning my 60 is off by 30 points in the wrong direction.

Weekend Update

2012-01-10T10:28:00.001-05:00

Seeing that the prescient Haydn waited until Monday to make his pick for big game, I thought I would revisit my prediction score, inconveniently timed BEFORE the actual games were played.

It does appear I may have overrated Steve’s chances here. I thought Stafford and Johnson would do pretty well, but with Foster chipping in a considerable amount on top of monster games from the 2, this game appears to be done before it got going good. I like Steve to post a strong defensive score, but it appears that it won’t do much good in a Lager’s route. Not thinking Smith and Grant will do much of anything to help close the gap, despite the fact that Tim looks to have a poor showing on D.

Revised prediction: Lager 67 – Beavers 28.

Update: Assuming Steve plays the other QB, Lagers 67 - Tebows 33. I do happen to think Smith is a strong play at home with N.O., but Tebow will be able to cover some of the rushing yards that Grant will likely not see. You know, seeing as how G.B. loves to rush the ball and all. Honestly, at this point, how much will it help?

Belated FLOF Bowl Prediction

2012-01-09T11:08:00.003-05:00

I know this is going to look like I already checked the scores for my prediction, but after reading John's post I think it's a little generous to the Beavers. I was going to say Lagers 80 to Beavers 20, but now it looks like the Lagers D is going to need some help to keep the margin of victory over 60. :)

The Stafford, Megatron, Foster combo looks pretty lethal right now. Alex Smith and Ryan Grant? Not so much. I do like Steve's D, but climbing out of a 80 point hole (and Tim still has Akers - and don't laugh, he scored 17 points last week) seems nigh impossible.

For anyone worried about playing Tim next season, it's okay, someone will eventually figure out they should actually cover Megatron: 3 games in a row with over 150 yards? No one can be that good every game. Without Calvin, Stafford is average at best. Foster though? Yeah, this team is scarier than I thought they were.

FLoF Bowl Prediction

2012-01-06T14:50:00.001-05:00

Sorry for the lack of recaps/predictions here of late. Between vacation and a pretty serious hospital stay, I really haven't been able. But no matter, here are my thoughts on the upcoming FLoF Bowl.
The Lagers come into the game with a full 5 point advantage in terms of power. The largest discrepancy is in offense, where the Lagers are in the top 3, while the Beavers are near the bottom. However, the Beavers make up the difference in the Defense, in where it is exactly the opposite situation from the O.
The Beavers are making their second appearance in the bowl game, but the gap is large, since he was last there in '98. This is the 4th year in the league for the Lagers, and they are making a second consecutive appearance in the big game. At 8-6, with the win the Lagers would have the lowest winning percentage of a Bowl-winning champion since the schedule went to 14 games.
From the lineup it appears that Tim will run out most of their players this weekend, so Steve should have a good idea the hole he will have to crawl out of. That being said, I am afraid it is going to be a pretty good size hole with Stafford and Johnson posting what appears to be big numbers. Steve should be able to hold his own a little, but other than Graham, I am not too big on his match ups on offense this week or next, regardless of whoever Smith and Grant eventually play. I think you will see from these 2 team exactly what you see in the above power ratings: the Lagers will post big number on offense with little D, while the Beavers will counter with a strong D, but little on O. In the end, I like the game to be competitive, but for Tim to pull away for his first championship.
Predicted Final score: Lagers 30 - Beavers 19. Good luck to both teams.

Playoff Re-Cap in slightly more detail...

2012-01-03T15:26:00.003-05:00

Beavers and Flannel were unsurprisingly both less than mediocre, Beavers slightly less so, and so they get to lose to Lagers in the FLoF Bowl next week.

Lagers and Malleus were both ridiculous and had every high score in every position but were playing each other and Malleus goes home after the best ever season in FLoF history by losing a playoff game with a score over 100. Both Malleus and Lagers scored more than Flannel and Beavers put together, individually.

Am I bitter? Maybe a little. Would I like a rematch with Tim - yes, yes I would, but that will have to wait for next year. For now we'll see how badly he beats Steve's sorry team.

(ps. sorry Steve, but you know my team is better than yours, but hey, good luck next week, it would be an awesome upset if you beat Tim.)

FLOF Bowl 15 Set

2011-12-30T20:55:00.000-05:00

Beavers and Lagers both upset higher seeds to move onto the FLOF Bowl. Lagers were in last year's but came up short. Beavers won the 2nd FLOF Bowl and have not been back since.

Go Left!

Wildcard & Toilet Bowl Recap

2011-12-20T09:15:00.003-05:00

N.Y. Hamburglers 32 - Old No. 7 14

The Hamburglers ride a good game from Matt Ryan and sends No. 7 to the Toilet Bowl loss. At least Seabass was the highest scoring kicker this week for 7.

Iron City Lagers 106 - Rednecks 12

Ouch. The Lagers dominate the Rednecks in this playoff. Everyone was clicking on offense for Lagers. I didn’t check it, but this is possibly the most lopsided playoff games ever, and maybe even up there in terms of a regular game. Next up for Tim is a trip to face Haydn’s Malleus squad, fresh off their bye week.

Fightin' Bitin' Beavers 23 - Bill's Team 0

Beavers blank the Bill’s squad this week and will travel to meet the rested Flannel squad. Nothing really got going for Bill while Steve fielded the best D of the week.

Playoffs, Year End Wrap-up

2011-12-16T11:48:00.003-05:00

Sorry about the laziness in posting. Here's a quick recap. Malleus is the best regualr season FLoF team ever and takes the first seed. Flannel grabs the 2 spot with a win over the much-better-than-their-record Hamburglers and a loss from the flailing Beavers. Beavers take the 3 spot by a tie-breaker over Lagers who are the 4th seed. Rednecks take the 5th even after losing their last two games. Most interesting development, Bill comes out of no where to take the 6th seed away from Roger because of an earlier tie-breaker even though he ranks 11th out of 12 in Power.
Strangely, only Malleus of the top 4 in Power makes the playoffs, leaving Chris, Roger, and Doug to shake there heads.

So, Malleus and Flannel get a bye.
Rednecks takes on Lagers
Bill challenges Beavers; and
Jack Daniels takes on Hamburglers in the Toilet Bowl.

Scoring began last night, with the Hamburglers taking a 25-10 lead on the strength of Matt Ryan and MJD (O7 countering with Turner and Curtis Lofton), in the Toilet Bowl.
In the real playoffs, Lagers new WR Roddy White stakes them 21 points before Sunday.

Monday Night Preview

2011-12-12T10:53:00.005-05:00

Rams and Seahawks playing, and surprisingly, quite a few FloFers.
Mimes 7 vs. Beavers 0(-3); and Drow 9 vs. Lagers 35, are done. It means Drow is out of the playoffs and Lagers is in, it also means Flannel is the 2 seed (because Beavers lost).

Flannel 54 vs. Hamburglers 51
Flannel has David Hawthorne (DF, Sea), Ham has Brandon Lloyd (WR, StL), and I have no idea what will happen. Doesn't really matter. If Flannel wins or loses they are the 2 seed, if Hamburglers wins or loses they still go to the Toilet Bowl because Mimes won.

Capo 0(-1) vs. Ramjets 40
Ramjets have Marshawn Lynch left, unfortunately for Roger, with the Bill win, neither of these teams makes the playoffs. But at least the Ramjets went out with a bang. Even if Capo had won this game, Bill wins the tie-breaker against both of them.

Bill 48 vs. Rednecks 26
Bill is done, John has James Laurinaitis (DF, StL), I'm calling this one for Bill and his ticket as the 6 seed because he beat Roger head to head earlier in the year.

Whiskey 0(-19) vs. Malleus 79
I have Quintin Mikell (DB, StL) left to make Jason's 0 lower and pad my ridiculous Power Score.

Week 14 Predictions

2011-12-09T10:15:00.001-05:00

Mighty Midtowne Mimes (5-8) @ Fightin' Bitin' Beavers (8-5)

Beavers are in, Mimes aren’t. There is nothing on the line but seeding placement for Steve. The Beavers did not get off to a good start last night and I don’t see his team pulling this off in a game he doesn’t really need anyway.

Prediction: Mimes send the Beavers to the playoffs on a 3 game skid.

Mimes 23 – Beavers 17

Murrysville Drow (6-7) @ Iron City Lagers (7-6)

Lagers are most likely in either way, but do need a win to ensure it. Drow has to have the win or he is out. Both teams have good offenses and bottom of the pack defenses. I expect this one to be high scoring, with Doug coming out on the better end of the RB matchups.

Prediction: Drow gets in.

Drow 38 – Lagers 33

Export Flannel (8-4-1) @ N.Y. Hamburglers (4-9)

The Flannel jumped out to a solid start on Thursday and need a win to wrap a first round bye. The Hamburgers are looking to play spoiler, but not much else. Looking at their matchups, I like both of them, but I think that Jamie’s WR corps proves to be a problem this week.

Prediction: Flannel clinches the bye.

Flannel 29 – Hamburglers 22

Capo Di Tutti Capi (6-7) @ Roger's Ramjets (6-7)

Still having trouble believing this Capo team is in this position. The offensive is league leading, but the D has kept them from being an elite team. Roger started the year strong but has tapered off. Both teams need to win this week to keep their playoff hopes alive. Both teams have some nice matchups, but Roger’s look like the better pick this week and I think he will remain for the playoffs.

Prediction: Ramjets knock Capo out.

Ramjets 30 – Capo 28

Bill's Team (6-7) @ Rednecks (7-5-1)

Bill needs a win and some hope to get in, while the Rednecks are in, but playing for position. Again, both teams appear to have good matchups. This one is tough to call since we both appear to be evenly matched this week. I have better WR matchups, while the QB call is easily in Bill’s favor. Since I have to pick someone, I will take myself at home this week.

Prediction: Bill stays on the outside looking in.

Rednecks 26 – Bill 20

Old No. 7 (3-10) @ Malleus Maleficarum (11-2)

Malleus looks to secure FLoF history with the first 12 win season. ON7 is in the Toilet Bowl regardless. No reason to think this week will be anything but ugly for Jason. I think this one gets out of hand in a hurry.

Prediction: Haydn becomes FLoF’s all-time wins leader.

Malleus 55 – Old No. 7 10

Computer Says

2011-12-08T09:15:00.000-05:00

Flannel will meet Malleus in the FLOF Bowl. Flannel would get there by beating Drow in the Wild Card round and then Beavers in the Playoff round. Malleus would beat Rednecks (who get by Ramjets in their wild card game).

Playoff Scenarios for the Last Week - Updated

2011-12-06T16:14:00.001-05:00

[Remember that these scenarios are always tentative because I always forget about something...]

Malleus have clinched the top seed in the playoffs and play for the best FLOF record ever this week.

Flannel currently are the 2-seed but are only 1/2 game ahead of Beavers in competition for the other first round bye. Flannel must win or tie or have Beavers lose or tie to stay in front.

Beavers will do no worse then the 3-seed but can leap frog Flannel if Flannel lose and Beavers win.

Rednecks are currently the 4-seed by 1/2 game over Lagers but must stay clear of Lagers to keep that seed as Lagers beat them this year.

Lagers have a lot of scenarios. If Lagers beat Drow this week they could be the 4-seed if Rednecks lose or tie. Otherwise the win would make them the 5-seed. If Lagers tie they can end up the 4-seed if Rednecks lose otherwise they are the 5-seed. If Lagers lose, they are probably on the outside looking in but could get in if Bill and Capo win; or if Ramjets and Capo tie.

Drow win and get to the playoffs (probably as the 5-seed). If they lose or tie, they do not. If Drow win, Ramjets win, and Bill loses or ties then Drow would be in as the 6-seed (otherwise, if Drow win, they are the 5-seed).

Ramjets win and Lager loss gets Ramjets to the playoffs as the 5-seed unless Bill wins, in which case Ramjets would be the 6-seed. update: Ramjets win coupled with a Lagers win or tie and Bill loss would get Ramjets to the playoffs as the 6-seed. Ramjet tie plus Drow loss or tie plus Bill loss would also get Ramjets in.

Capo win~~, Lager loss,~~ and Bill loss or tie gets Capo in as the 6-seed. update: Lager's result is not important to Capo.

Bill needs to win and have Tim win or tie to get into the playoffs (update) as the 6-seed. Bill tie plus Drow loss and Ramjet-Capo tie would get Bill in.

A Moment to Reflect on Malleus' Season

2011-12-03T13:00:00.000-05:00

Take a moment to look at Malleus' season with two games to go.

Only 2 teams have ever won 11 games: the 2002 Drow, and last year's Malleus team. No team has ever won 12 games in a season, however my computer model predict that they will win their last two comfortably.

Also note that the 2011 Malleus currently have the best ever power, offensive power, and defensive power EVER. Including the first ever total power ranking over 90.

Week 13 Preview

2011-12-02T10:35:00.001-05:00

GAME OF THE WEEK

Roger's Ramjets (6-6) @ Export Flannel (7-4-1)

The Right Division is on the line as the Flannel host the Ramjets. A Flannel win will clinch the division title, while a Ramjets win keeps them alive while crushing the playoff chances of the Mimes and Hamburglers, and push Bill, Drow, and CAPO to the brink of elimination. Flannels spent Thursday night jumping out nearly 40 points and have a commanding lead going into the weekend. However, I do like Roger’s matchups and think that he will come right back and make it competitive. I think it comes up a little short.

Prediction: Flannel clinches the Right.

Flannel 31 – Ramjets 24

Bill's Team (5-7) @ Fightin' Bitin' Beavers (8-4)

Bill is hanging by a thread and travels in a must-win game to meet the Beavers who are looking to pad their lead in the Left. Looking at the offensive matchups for both teams, I like Bill to score a pretty fair amount; for the Beavers side, I am not big on most of the matchups. Defensively, however, I think Steve more than makes up for the offensive output this week. Will Bill score enough to counter and knock the Beavers off at home? I don’t think he will.

Prediction: Bill falls from the Wild Card race.

Beavers 25 – Bill 19

Rednecks (7-4-1) @ Murrysville Drow (5-7)

The Rednecks have won a Wild Card slot and face a desperate Drow team this week. Both teams have pretty good matchups this week and the offense should be humming for both. The difference in this game: Rogers and home field advantage for Drow. That should be enough to drop a loss on the Rednecks, who really don’t have much to play for at this point.

Prediction: Drow stays in the Wild Card hunt, barely.

Drow 28 – Rednecks 21

N.Y. Hamburglers (4-8) @ Capo Di Tutti Capi (5-7)

The Hamburglers have been strong coming down the stretch and look to push Capo out of contention for a Wild Card slot. On paper, this looks like a slam dunk for Capo, but Chris has turned the act of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory into an art form this year. I really don’t see the matchups for Jamie carrying the day, but I still think he wins with a good defensive effort.

Prediction: Hamburglers knocks Capo out of the playoff race.

Hamburglers 27 – Capo 22

Old No. 7 (3-9) @ Mighty Midtowne Mimes (4-8)

Yet another game with playoff implication, namely the Toilet Bowl. ON7 looks to have the inside track to host the event, but face stiff competition from the Mimes. Whoever wins, this game looks to be only a warm-up for a rematch later. Looking at the lineup for each, I really don’t like anything Jason has in the way of matchups this week, expect Seabass. I think Mimes run the score up on him this week. Too bad it really doesn’t mean anything at this point.

Prediction: Mimes rout 7.

Mimes 30 – ON7 3

Malleus Maleficarum (10-2) @ Iron City Lagers (7-5)

Malleus has wrapped up the Middle and now faces a Lagers team looking to get back into the division race. Both teams have favorable offensive matchups this week, although I would be slightly worried about Tm Brady getting pulled from the game once NE drops 40 points on IND somewhere in the early 3rd quarter. Where the difference in the game will come will be in the defensive showing from Haydn. The Malleus squad has the best, while Lagers have the worst. That should be the deciding factor this week.

Prediction: Malleus continues to pad their record.

Malleus 44 – ICL 26

Week 12 Playoff Review

2011-11-30T07:00:00.000-05:00

Malleus, Beavers, Flannel, and Rednecks all punched some form of playoff ticket this past weekend. Malleus have clinched their division title and a first round bye. Beavers and Flannel remain favorites to win their divisions but have also clinched at least a wild card berth. Rednecks have clinched a wild card berth.

Beavers need one more win or Lagers' loss to clinch the Left. Flannel need either a win or Ramjet loss to clinch the Right. Lagers and Ramjets must win out and have their respective division rival lose their last 2 to claim the title instead.

Lagers and Ramjets have the inside track for the last two wild card spots if they do not win their divisions outright. One more win for Lagers will clinch a playoff appearance for them. Losses by Drow, Bill, AND CAPO would also guarantee them a wild card spot at least. Ramjets have less cushion but if they win out, the worst they can do is a wild card. Otherwise, some of the teams in the below two groups could catch them.

Drow, Bill, and CAPO all sit at 5-7 currently and need some help to have a shot at a wild card spot. If Lagers lose their last two and or Ramjets do not win out, these three teams could tie for the last wild card spot or leap-frog Ramjets.

Mimes and Hamburglers appear to be mathematically still alive for a wild card. Both of their hopes rely on Ramjets dropping their last two games while Drow, Bill, and CAPO win no more then one each. If that happens they could get into a tie with Ramjets and others for the last wild card spot if they win their last 2 games.

Since it very well may come down to a tie, the following teams have head-to-head advantages over others:

Lagers have advantages over CAPO, Bill, Hamburglers, and Mimes.
Ramjets have advantages over Lagers, Drow, CAPO (1-0), and Mimes.
Bill have advantages over Ramjets, CAPO, and Hamburglers.
Drow have advantages over Bill and Lagers (1-0).
CAPO have advantages over Drow, Hamburglers (1-0), and Mimes.
Mimes have advantages over Bill and Hamburglers.
Hamburglers have an advantage over Drow.

The biggest game next weekend in relation to the playoffs: Ramjets @ Flannel -- not only is the division title at stake, but a Ramjets win crushes the playoff dreams of Mimes and Hamburglers and makes it that much harder for Bill, Drow, and CAPO.

Week 12 Recap

2011-11-29T09:52:00.001-05:00

Week 12 is in the books and we are coming down to the final 2 games.

Export Flannel 26 - Fightin' Bitin' Beavers 19

Eli Manning had a big Monday night game that countered the big game from the Beavers Jimmy Graham. The Flannel inch a little closer to a Right Title. Meanwhile, with the Lagers loss, the Beavers remain in first place in the Left, but fail to pad their lead.

N.Y. Hamburglers 23 - Murrysville Drow 10

The Hamburglers have officially become the team no one wants to play down the stretch. The Drow falls this week to a solid effort from Matt Ryan and a stout defense. The Hamburglers may yet escape the Toilet, while the Drow’s Wild Card chances take a hit.

Capo Di Tutti Capi 26 - Mighty Midtowne Mimes 3

Capo finally puts together a good game and gets the W over the Mimes. It is most likely too little, too late, but Capo technically remains in the hunt for a Wild Card. The Mimes looks like they are sliding toward a Toilet appearance.

Roger's Ramjets 52 - Iron City Lagers 17

A poor defensive output dooms the ICL squad this week. Roger stays alive in the race for the Right Division, while ICL fail to gain ground on the Beavers in the Left.

Rednecks 56 - Old No. 7 16

The offensive production from my squad was unexpected this week, led by Harvin and Cruz. ON7 looks to have a Toilet Bowl berth wrapped up, while the Rednecks are now in the pole position for the first Wild Card slot.

Malleus Maleficarum 59 - Bill's Team 7

Malleus wipes out another team behind a strong effort from Tom Brady. Bill offered up no defensive this week and is watching their season slip away. On the other side, Malleus has officially wrapped up the Middle Title, as there is no way for the Rednecks to claim it.

Week 12 Computer Rankings and Predictions

2011-11-25T12:01:00.000-05:00

Computer Rankings for Week 12

	med	avg	var
Malleus	.85	.75	.30
Flannel	.84	.70	.36
NY	.77	.69	.23
Rednecks	.71	.57	.32
Drow	.62	.61	.18
Beav	.51	.51	.15
Roger	.49	.46	.20
Mimes	.44	.42	.36
Bill	.42	.43	.30
Capo	.32	.28	.09
IC Lagers	.30	.42	.36
No. 7	.26	.25	.20

Previously I've used my computer model to predict cumulative wins over the rest of the season. Normally when the model suggest that I have a 41% chance to beat Hamburglers this week I give myself 41% of a win and add that to the rest of my games for the end of the season and then say that I should win 6.5 games by the end of the year. With 3 games left, I am just going to give myself a loss for that 41% and move on.

So, the computer says: Malleus, Beavers, and Flannel will all cruise to their division titles -- Malleus and Beavers gaining the first round byes. Rednecks will also cruise to the first wild card spot.

After that it gets interesting. The computer predicts a 3-way tie for the last two playoff spots after Ramjets and Drow win 2 more games each and Lagers drop 3 in a row. Tie-breakers in this scenario would give Ramjets and Drow the nods for the last 2 spots and leave Lagers on the outside after an epic 4-game season ending collapse. That said, the computer is giving Drow only a 52% chance to beat Rednecks in 2 weeks and if that game goes the other way, Lagers would be back in the playoffs despite the collapse.

Week 12 preview

2011-11-24T09:00:00.000-05:00

GAME OF THE WEEK

Fightin' Bitin' Beavers (8-3) @ Export Flannel (6-4-1)

The Beavers have won 5 straight and are in sole possession of first in the Left. The Flannel has rattled off 4 straight and sits atop the Right. The Beavers lose AP for a bit, but still have some strong matchups this week. Looking at the matchups, I think this is the week the teams catch up to Tebow. While I think FBB will score their share, I just like the Eli and LeSean matchups better.

Prediction: Flannel rides home field to a win.

Flannel 24 – Beavers 22

Murrysville Drow (5-6) @ N.Y. Hamburglers (3-8)

The Hamburglers have been pretty tough of late and Drow looks to keep the momentum going this week. I like Aaron to go crazy this week this, while Ryan will struggle a bit. As for the rest of the matchups, nothing on the Ham side looks promising (remember when a RB matchup at Houston was golden?). I think Doug wins - and by a pretty healthy margin.

Prediction: Drow stays in the Wildcard hunt.

Drow 44 – Hamburglers 20

Mighty Midtowne Mimes (4-7) @ Capo Di Tutti Capi (4-7)

Both teams sit at 4 and 7 and look to be playing out the season just trying to avoid the Toilet. As far as matchups go, River and Tolbert just don’t look that appealing. Capo has managed to blow games despite what the matchups look like on paper, just not this week. I’ll take Capo in a rout (assuming Chris put Brees back in the lineup).

Prediction: Capo.

Capo 36 – Mimes 10

Iron City Lagers (7-4) @ Roger's Ramjets (5-6)

Roger has struggled as of late, while the Lagers have firm control of at least one Wildcard slot. This is my pick to have the highest combined score of the week, as I like the matchups for both teams. In the end, however, I think the Lager with Stafford and Foster will pull away from the Roger, who will not have as good a showing at the RB position.

Prediction: Lagers in a high scoring affair.

ICL 38 – Ramjets 30

Rednecks (6-4-1) @ Old No. 7 (3-8)

With the loss last week, the Rednecks hold on the Wildcard is now in a precarious position. ON7 has nothing really left to play for outside of avoiding the toilet bowl. I actually didn’t do that bad last week while 7 has basically not been able to get anything going on the offensive side. I think the trade for VJ will help, and I like the matchups this week for 7. I think ON7 has one of their best offensive outings to date.

Prediction: Rednecks lose another close one.

ON7 22 – Rednecks 18

Malleus Maleficarum (9-2) @ Bill's Team (5–6)

Mallues sits firmly in first place while Bill is trying to make a late season run for a WC slot. Tom Brady has been hot again for Malleus and face another strong QB from Bill. I still don’t trust CJ and I like Haydn’s matchups this week. The offense for the Hammer should roll and any progress from Bill on the offensive front should be countered by Malleus’s strong D.

Prediction: Malleus goes to double digit wins for the year.

Malleus 34 – Bill 14

Playoff Picture, Week 12

2011-11-23T08:23:00.001-05:00

Its been a crazy year. With 3 weeks remaining no division has been clinched and all but 4 teams still have a chance to win their division. As far as I can tell, those 4 teams are not without a chance to get a wild card, although it seems unlikely that any 3 win team has a realistic chance.

Next week, I'll break down the wild card race. For now, here are your division race possibilities.

Left Division
Beavers have essentially a 1.5 game lead over ICL after sweeping Lagers this year. A Beaver win and Lager loss would clinch the division for Steve.

Lagers must win 2 more games then Beavers do over the last 3 games of the season to win the division.

Drow actually still have a shot but must win out, have Beavers lose their last 3, and have Lagers lose at least 2 of their last 3. That would throw the division into a 2- or 3-way tie. Either way it becomes a tie-breaker fest between Drow and Beavers adn would come down to their records against other playoff teams.

Right Division
Flannel have exactly a 1.5 game lead over Ramjets right now and can also clinch with a win and ramjet loss this week.

Ramjets can win the division if they win two more games then Flannel over their last 3. If Ramjets win this weekend, they can really help their cause with a win over Flannel 2 weeks from now when they meet for the last time this season.

CAPO have an outside shot at the division if they win out, Flannel lose their last 3, and Ramjets lose at least 1 of their last 3. CAPO wins outright if Ramjets lose 2 of their last 3 in this scenario. If Ramjets win 2 of their last 3, then CAPO could end up tied with them for the division lead and the tie-breakers would come down to the most wins against other playoff teams.

Middle Division
Malleus almost has this wrapped up. A Malleus win or Rednecks loss this week clinches the division.

Rednecks need to win their last 3 and have Malleus to lose their last 3 in order win the division.

Week 11 Preview

2011-11-18T09:58:00.001-05:00

GAME OF THE WEEK

Iron City Lagers (7-3) @ Fightin' Bitin' Beavers (7-3)

Both teams have won 4 straight and are tied for the lead in the Left, so something has to give this week. Based on last night’s game, Tim has spotted Steve’s team 15 points. Tebow wasn’t great, but then again, Green and Cromartie were worse. I like Stafford and Johnson to keep the Lager’s competitive, but in the end I think FBB overwhelms them.

Prediction: Beavers assume control of the Left.

Beavers 27 – Lagers 16

Murrysville Drow (4-6) @ Mighty Midtowne Mimes (4-6)

Drow has the best offense in the league, but one of the worst defenses. It is just the opposite for the Mimes, where they have one of the worst offenses, but the 2nd best defense. So what wins - a better offense or better defense? Looking at the matchups, I take the offense.

Prediction: Drow on the road.

Drow 31 – Mimes 14

Export Flannel (5-4-1) @ Bill's Team (5-5)

The Flannel has ripped off 3 straight to assume control in the Right. Bill has been competitive, but sits just on the outside of the division. In terms of power, both teams are pretty evenly matched. Looking at the matchups, something this week just is leading me to believe that Manning and McCoy are due for a letdown, while I like the Bill’s Chris Johnson to play better down the stretch.

Prediction: Bill makes it 3 in a row.

Bill 28 – Flannel 22

N.Y. Hamburglers (2-8) @ Rednecks (6-3-1)

Von Miller on Thursday night has already pushed the Hamburglers to an 18 point deficit. On the other side, David Harris dropped 3 on the Rednecks. I like most of my matchups this week, except at QB, where I may be forced to run Flacco out there. I also like Jamie’s matchups with MJD and Ryan. I think this week I put up a good defense effort to counter a good offensive effort from the ‘burglers and win in a low scoring squeaker.

Prediction: The luck streak continues.

Rednecks 16 – Hamburglers 11

Capo Di Tutti Capi (4-6) @ Old No. 7 (2-8)

Mark Sanchez. Ouch. Capo, despite carrying nearly the best offense in FLoF, have lost 3 in a row, and face a No. 7 team with not much left to play for. Looking across the board, I really don’t like any of the matchups for Capo. I like Fitzpatrick in a rebound game, and for the Bottle to send Capo to their 4th straight defeat.

Prediction: Capo’s inexplicable season continues to deteriorate.

ON7 20 – Capo 15

Roger's Ramjets (5-5) @ Malleus Maleficarum (8-2)

Malleus comes into the game with the best power rating, by far, and seeming have the Middle sown up with only 4 games left. Roger needs to win to keep pace in Right behind a surging Flannel squad. Behind easy matchups for Brady and Forte, this is not the week you want to play Haydn. I do like Roger to post a pretty good score; it just isn’t going to be nearly enough.

Prediction: Malleus at home - again.

Malleus 40 – Ramjets 27

Computer Rankings Week 10

2011-11-17T21:02:00.000-05:00

Last 4 weeks:

	med	avg	var
Flannel	.84	.66	.43
Beav	.64	.65	.20
Mimes	.63	.51	.32
Malleus	.62	.64	.32
Drow	.58	.57	.14
Bill	.54	.55	.20
NY	.53	.56	.28
IC Lagers	.50	.52	.40
Rednecks	.40	.38	.38
Roger	.38	.40	.22
Capo	.32	.44	.24
No. 7	.10	.15	.15

Updated predictions:

Left

Beavers 9.4 wins, division, bye

Lagers 8.9 wins, wild card

Mimes 6.3 wins

Drow 6.1 wins

Middle

Malleus 10.5 wins, division, bye

Rednecks 8.4 wins, wild card

Bill 6.9 wins, wild card

O7 3.3 wins, toilet bowl

Right

Flannel 7.9 wins, division

Ramjets 6.7 wins

CAPO 5.9 wins

Ham 4.0 wins

(Almost) Completely Ridiculous Playoff Prediction

2011-11-16T18:56:00.002-05:00

Instead of the Biggest Loser (Chris, Doug and Roger all tied this week) I decided to check the schedule and look at who's going to the playoffs based on gut predictions of each week's games. There is no in-depth analysis of match-ups just plain going with who I think is good. Yes, I expect to win the rest of my games. :)

#1 Seed: Malleus 12-2 - Winner of Middle
#2 Seed: Beavers 10-4 - Winner of Left
3rd Seed: Capo 8-6 Winner of Right
4th Seed: Lagers 9-5 Wild Card 1
5th Seed: Rednecks 8-5-1 Wild Card 2
6th Seed: Drow 8-6 Wild Card 3

Capo beats Drow in Round 1 because Rodgers only plays the first series, and Flynn doesn't bother to throw it much to Jennings because he's resting too.
Lagers beats Rednecks because lets face it, Vick isn't that great.

Malleus beats Lagers because Brady is still trying to win the AFC East and Stafford isn't that great (Arian Foster and Calvin Johnson are great but I'm ignoring that for now).
Capo beats Beavers because AP has nothing to play for and Tebow, well, Tebow sucks.

Malleus beats Capo, wins FLOF Bowl 3 in the last 4 years, because I don't remind Chris to set his line up.

Week 10 Recap

2011-11-15T11:03:00.001-05:00

After a few good weeks, my predictions were bad; only 2 correct.

Fightin' Bitin' Beavers 19 - Murrysville Drow 12

Charles Woodson counter a great game from Aaron Rodgers to keep the Beaver tied for first in the Left. The Drow have dropped 4 in a row and look to be fading from contention.

Iron City Lagers 27 - Mighty Midtowne Mimes 13

ICL rides Adrian Foster to a win to keep pace in the Left. It wasn’t a great effort, but enough to counter a poor effort from the Mimes, who posted the low offensive showing for the week.

Bill's Team 51 - Capo Di Tutti Capi 27

Capo fails to keep pace in the Right, getting decked at home by a Bill’s team that posted the weeks best offensive output. Don’t look now, but Chris Johnson finally posted a good game. That could be good news down the stretch for Bill.

Rednecks 18 - Roger's Ramjets 16

The Rednecks overcome a terrible game from Vick and eek out the win over the Ramjets at home. The Rednecks remain just out of first place in the Middle while Roger falls to second place in the division.

Export Flannel 17 - Old No. 7 0

This game featured a week’s best defensive effort from 7, but the offense just did not keep up their end. Flannel blanks the Bottle, which looks to be a lock for the Toilet, while the Flannel assumes the division lead from Roger.

Malleus Maleficarum 57 - N.Y. Hamburglers 33

So much for my upset of the week. Malleus’s offense was tough this week and they clobber a game Hamburglers team. Malleus remains solidly in first place in the Middle and maintain the league’s best record.

Monday Night Preview

2011-11-14T10:59:00.003-05:00

Two games in the books:

On7 - 0 @ Flannel - 17; and
Malleus - 57 @ Hamburglers - 33 (sorry Jamie, you had another good game).

Tonight we could have some interesting things to watch:

Beavers - 8 @ Drow - 0(-2)
Beavers have AP and Woodson, Drow have Rodgers and Jennings. If it were anyone other than the Purple Jesus I'd give the game to Drow, but the GB Def isn't very good and I think AP can keep pace with Rodgers and with a 10 point lead going in I think Beavers can hang on for the win.

Mimes - 13 @ Lagers - 34
Mimes have Jared Allen, is he capable of 22 points? Yes, but probably not.

Bill - 66 @ Capo - 25
Capo have Finley, Crosby, and Matthews left, Bill has Desmond Bishop. With a 41 point lead I think Bill keeps this one, but it could get close.

Rednecks - 18 @ Ramjets - 24
Rednecks have Morgan Burnett left to try and score 7, very doable, this one could change hands.

Week 10 Preview

2011-11-11T15:15:00.003-05:00

GAME OF THE WEEK

Mighty Midtowne Mimes (4-5) @ Iron City Lagers (6-3)

Lagers have won 3 straight. Mimes are on the board first, but not a very impressive showing with Rivers and Tolbert. I am not crazy about Stafford this week for the Lagers, but I do like Foster to have a good day.

Prediction: Lagers make it 4 in a row.

Lagers 30 – Mimes 14

Fightin' Bitin' Beavers (6-3) @ Murrysville Drow (4-5)

Beavers have also won 3 straight. Drow is struggling lately. I think Doug rebounds this week behind Rodgers.

Prediction: Drow at home.

Drow 27 – Beavers 22

Bill's Team (4-5) @ Capo Di Tutti Capi (4-5)

Two teams with the same record, but vastly different power ratings. I think Capo wins big. I still don’t trust CJ to answer with anything.

Prediction: Capo.

Capo 33 – Bill 12

Rednecks (5-3-1) @ Roger's Ramjets (5-4)

My record is better than it should be, mostly due to luck. Roger has struggled in the last couple of games, but I think he is in line to rebound with Schaub and Jackson, although it should be close.

Prediction: Roger at home.

Ramjets 24 – Rednecks 20

Old No. 7 (2-7) @ Export Flannel (4-4-1)

ON7 is the new worst in FLoF. Flannel has been inconsistent, but competitive. I like Flannel here with McCoy, but a subpar game from Manning will keep it from getting to out of hand.

Prediction: Flannel.

Flannel 24 – ON7 7

Malleus Maleficarum (7-2) @ N.Y. Hamburglers (2-7)

If you look at power rating, this should be a cake walk for Malleus. I think the matchups this week work in Hamburlgers favor, and I need an upset to call.

Prediction: Hamburlgers uses home field to surprise Malleus.

Hamburglers 25 - Malleus 23

[note this is John's work as usual, I just posted it for him.]

Computer Rankings Week 9

2011-11-10T23:11:00.000-05:00

	med	avg	var
NY	.77	.68	.26
Drow	.69	.64	.16
Mimes	.68	.65	.09
Malleus	.53	.59	.30
IC Lagers	.52	.55	.37
Beav	.51	.54	.28
Capo	.50	.53	.24
Bill	.43	.44	.13
Flannel	.41	.44	.47
Roger	.23	.28	.15
Rednecks	.17	.27	.31
No. 7	.11	.22	.30

updated predictions:

Left
Lagers 8.5 wins, division, bye
Beavers 8.2 wins, wild card
Mimes 6.9 wins
Drow 6.8 wins

Middle
Malleus 9.8 wins, division, bye
Rednecks 7.4 wins, wild card
Bill 6.4 wins
O7 3.7 wins, toilet bowl

Right
Flannel 7.0 wins, division (better chance to win 2 more then roger if you just look at each game's odds)
Ramjets 7.0 wins, wild card
CAPO 6.7 wins
Hamburglers 5.1 wins, toilet bowl

Recaps

2011-11-09T10:40:00.002-05:00

Sorry no recaps this week. I am in a class and just don't have the time. I will post Rankings and Recaps this week.

By the way, I was 5 of 6 on the predictions. I am getting better at this, unless it is my own game.

Week 9 Quick Recap

2011-11-07T11:08:00.004-05:00

Mimes 33 @ Bill 15
Was a close game, until Monday night when Urlacher made it less close. Rivers outduels Hback subbing for new Bill star QB Cam Newton.

Lagers 34 @ Rednecks 25
Shouldn't have been this close, Rednecks best score was from a kicker, both teams pretty much sucked, Lagers sucked a little less.

Capo 22 @ Flannel 47
Capo got a decent game from Jacobs but it wasn't enough. Flannel put together a much more balanced attack (Capo's D only scored 10).

Ramjets 1 @ Hamburglers 32
Watch out for the 'burglers the rest of way, the Hammer gets them next.

Beavers 13 @ Whiskey 2
I thought DJax might pull this one out Monday night, I was wrong. The Manning-less Whiskey Bottle has fallen way behind the pack, Beavers beat them soundly with a mediocre score without All-Day.

Drow 17 @ Malleus 60
The Hammer came out it's 4 game funk to crush the Drow and reclaim the #1 spot in the Power Rankings. Poor Doug.

Week 9 Preview

2011-11-04T11:31:00.000-04:00

GAME OF THE WEEK

Murrysville Drow (4-4) @ Malleus Maleficarum (6-2)

Here come the fireworks. Looking at the rosters for both teams, I think we’re are going to see the offensive for both teams post big numbers. You have to like Rodgers and I do think that Brady will be looking to rebound after last week. I actually even like Malleus to post some decent WR numbers this week. I think this will come down to D. Haydn has the best, while Doug has one of the worst.

Prediction: Malleus at home.

Malleus 38– Drow 31

Mighty Midtowne Mimes (3-5) @ Bill's Team (4-4)

Last week, the Mimes put out a monster defensive effort only to be negated by a huge offensive day from Flannel, while Bill chalked up 2 in a row. While I don’t see another defensive effort like that coming from the Mimes, with Cam on a bye for Bill I think it will be enough. I think Bill has a tough offensive outing coming this week while the Mimes will do more than enough, led by Philip Rivers.

Prediction: Mimes blanks the Bill at home.

Mimes 18– Bill 0

Iron City Lagers (5-3) @ Rednecks (5-2-1)

The Lagers rolled last week, but as usual, the Rednecks get lucky and play them when they have to sit the high scoring Stafford to Johnson combo. I think this will be a close game, but I actually like my team to start posting some decent offensive numbers, which will be needed against what I see is a good defensive effort coming from the Lagers.

Prediction: Rednecks get lucky again.

Rednecks 26– Lagers 21

Capo Di Tutti Capi (4-4) @ Export Flannel (3-4-1)

Capo has a tough draw this week playing a Flannel team that scored in bunches last week. Looking at Flannel’s matchup, I think more of the same is in store. Conversely, Capo has a tough RB matchup this week and the WR matchups are not that great either. So most likely, since I am just not seeing it this week for Capo, this will be the week he wins. But I still don’t see it.

Prediction: I think Manning and McCoy have another big week.

Flannel 36– Capo 20

Roger's Ramjets (5-3) @ N.Y. Hamburglers (1-7)

The Ramjets squeaked by last week while the Hamburglers showed a lot of improvement, even in the loss. Looking at the matchup, I know Roger is leading the league in offensive, but I just have a feeling that this week he isn’t going to see the production he is used to. For the Ham team, I think this week they go off offensively, and even Ryan will post some good number for them. It won’t be a cake walk, but I still like the ‘Burglers to get it done.

Prediction: Upset special of the week!

Hamburglers 27– Ramjets 22

Fightin' Bitin' Beavers (5-3) @ Old No. 7 (2-6)

The surging Beavers take on a floundering No. 7 team just looking to avoid hosting the Toilet Bowl. I do like some of Jason’s matchups this week, and he does draw a Beavers team that has to sit All-Day, but I have a feeling Fitzpatrick is about to have a bad game. While I am not crazy about Alex Smith either, I do like most of the matchups for the Beavers, despite Sproles being in some sort of time share in Orleans. I think this game will be closer than it appears, but FBB takes it.

Prediction: Beavers on the road.

Beavers 26 – O7 14

Week 8 Power Rating

2011-11-03T13:46:00.000-04:00

1. Malleus

I still have this team atop the ratings, although it is a more precarious position this week. Tom Brady’s play of late has been good, not great, and a source of some concern for Haydn. Personally, I would be more concerned with the WR play – or lack thereof.

2. Ramjets

That was a hard fought win this week for the current Left Division leader. Still, this team leads FLoF in offensive power and I doubt that Welker will have many weeks with only a point to show for it.

3. Beavers

Beavers make it 2 in a row this week with another impressive win. When the team is rolling offensively, they are pretty much unstoppable, outscoring their opponents by an average of 30 points per win.

4. CAPO

Not sure what to make of this team. As soon as they look strong and posed to make a move up the Right, they lay an egg. Still, with this team atop the FLoF power ratings, you just getting the feeling they are going to be there at the end.

5. Drow

The loss of Rodgers hurt this team this week. However, this team does look strong down the stretch and the roster looks built for the FLoF playoffs.

6. Lagers

Stafford and Johnson have been strong all year and now the RB position is starting to solidify. Another team that should be dangerous down the stretch – well, at least after this week’s round of byes.

7. Rednecks

I am probably leading the league in lucky breaks. It seems like I am perpetually playing a team with a down week. If I ever get all my guys coming back healthy, I should be good at making a run in the Middle.

8. Mimes

A defensive effort like that will win you most games. Too bad the offense failed to get on board. RB has been an issue all year and now Rivers is floundering.

9. Bill

RB play has been abysmal (thank you Chris Johnson) but at least this team seems to have found a QB with long term potential. A 2 game skid against No. 7 will make you look good though.

10. Flannel

Everything was clicking on offense this week. If McCoy and Manning keep this up, look out.

11. Hamburglers

A few Haydn trades later and this team looks like it could be dangerous down the stretch. Probably too little, too late, but at least has a punchers-chance of avoiding the Toilet now.

12. Old No. 7
Got blanked two weeks in a row and looks to be in solid contention for a TB birth. Pretty much like their real life counterparts, this team never recovered from the loss of Manning.

Computer Rankings Week 8

2011-11-02T13:00:00.000-04:00

	median	average	var
Capo	.74	.66	.23
IC Lagers	.66	.63	.30
Drow	.64	.61	.15
NY	.59	.59	.30
Mimes	.58	.54	.19
Beav	.56	.56	.28
Bill	.51	.48	.10
Roger	.38	.44	.29
Malleus	.37	.40	.18
Flannel	.35	.41	.44
Rednecks	.33	.35	.29
No. 7	.24	.29	.31

Updated season predictions

Left
Lagers: 9.7 wins; division winner, bye
Beavers: 8.5 wins; wild card
Drow: 8.4 wins
Mimes: 7.0 wins

Middle
Malleus: 9.5 wins; division winner, bye
Rednecks: 8.8 wins; wild card
Bill: 8.0 wins
Old No. 7: 5.1 wins

Right
CAPO: 9.0 wins; division winner
Ramjets: 8.6 wins; wild card
Flannel: 7.1 wins
Hamburglers: 5.5 wins

Week 8 Recap

2011-11-01T11:41:00.001-04:00

My predictions are 4 of 6 this week (I almost called the exact score on the Bill/7 game). I may be threatening to get decent with this prediction stuff.

Export Flannel 20 - Mighty Midtowne Mimes 3

Manning and McCoy overcome a huge defensive effort from the Mimes and keeps Flannel competitive in the Right. The Mimes were sunk by a weak offensive effort across the board.

Iron City Lagers 31 - N.Y. Hamburglers 18

A great Monday night effort from Derrick Johnson was enough to propel the Lagers to a victory. The Hamburglers looked decent this week, but still seemed doomed to the Toilet Bowl this year. With the win, the Lagers grab a share of the lead in the Left.

Fightin' Bitin' Beavers 28 - Capo Di Tutti Capi 12

The Beavers grab the win with yet another player having a big Monday night game, this time coming Eric Weddle. For Capo, Rice looked great, but he got no help from Brees this week. The win moves the Beavers into a share of the lead in the Left, while Capo falls off pace in the Right.

Roger's Ramjets 20 - Murrysville Drow 19

In a way, you can blame a player not even on the Drow’s squad for the loss. Rivers bobbled a hand off and lost the ball on a chip shot field goal for Novak, which would have been enough for the win. The Ramjets do just enough to squeak by with the win and are pacing the field in the Right, while the loss sends Drow to third place in the Left.

Bill's Team 28 - Old No. 7 0

This game was over Sunday and it was all Bill. Old 7 got nothing going offensively; and while Bill’s team wasn’t overly impressive on the O, Newton did enough to seal the deal. The win keeps Bill lurking just on the outside in the Middle, while the Bottle looks like future competition in the Toilet.

Rednecks 9 - Malleus Maleficarum 0

Newcomer Houston posted a big game blanking the Malleus team behind a weak game from Brady. The Rednecks/Malleus rivalry ends up in a split, with each winning their respective home games. The loss tightens up the race for the Middle, but still finds Malleus in the driver’s seat.

Monday Night Preview: Week 8

2011-10-31T10:22:00.004-04:00

A lot of possibilities this week, but I think only one victory will change hands: Beavers steals the Monday Night win. ICL has the next best chance, Drow and Mimes are long shots, and I have the longest shot of all.

Flannel (38) vs. Mimes (0/-9)
Flannel is done. Mimes have Rivers, Bowe, and Flowers. 47 is a lot of points, but it is do-able.

Hamburglers (41) vs. ICL (34)
ICL have Derrick Johnson, 7 points is possible as well, Lagers are at 17 tackles right now, so 5 more before the bonus kicks in.

Capo (30) vs. Beavers (28)
Beavers have Weddle, 6 tackles will do it.

Ramjets (19) vs. Drow (7)
Drow have a kicker, 12 points? Probably not, but who knows?

O7 (0/-14) vs. Bill (28)
This one is done. Jason needed Janikowski this week.

Malleus (0/-18) vs. Rednecks (10)
Malleus has Vincent Jackson and need 28 points, with the bonus for cYards that means 3 TDs and 93 yards. Can he do it? Sure, why not?

Week 8 Preview

2011-10-28T11:39:00.000-04:00

First of all, sorry for the lack of a recap this week, I was under the weather most of it. I figured since Doug did a power rating, I skipped that this week as well.

Anyway, welcome to the back half of the FLoF season. We have a log jam in the Left and the Middle and Right is looking like it is shaping up to a 2 man race in each. I did go 4 of 6 in last week’s predictions, which officially moves me out of Harold Camping territory (for at least one week).

GAME OF THE WEEK

Capo Di Tutti Capi (4-3) @ Fightin' Bitin' Beavers (4-3)

Two surging teams meet in my game of the week. After tough starts for both, these teams are starting to find their footing and make a play for leads in their respective divisions. I like both offenses to post big numbers for each team; however, I do like Chris’s matchup at QB much more than Steve’s. Statistically, FBB should post better numbers on D, but will it be enough? My gut feeling is no.

Prediction: Capo in a shoot-out.

Capo 37– Beavers 31

Export Flannel (2-4-1) @ Mighty Midtowne Mimes (3-4)

The Flannel got smoked last week and travel to meet the Mimes, winners of two straight. Darrin has some decent matchups this week, but for some reason I keep coming back to Clay. I just have a feeling Manning and McCoy are coming up large this week while I am still not entirely sure about the Mimes RB situation.

Prediction: Flannel…barely.

Flannel 24 – Mimes 22

N.Y. Hamburglers (1-6) @ Iron City Lagers (4-3)

The Lagers won in impressive fashion last week and now face the Hamburglers who are just looking for the season to mercifully end. Tim has some pretty good matchups this week and it doesn’t even appear Jamie is going to do much with both QBs on a bye. I like ICL to win by a lot.

Prediction: This one gets ugly.

Lagers 48 – Hamburglers 10

Roger's Ramjets (4-3) @ Murrysville Drow (4-3)

This game was a candidate for my game of the week. Both teams are coming off tough losses and look to stay atop their respective divisions. Unfortunately for Doug, he has to sit Aaron this week, while Roger appears to be getting Jackson and Welker back this week. I think this game will be close, but without the usual numbers Rogers post, I don’t like Doug to hang in there.

Prediction: Ramjets upend Drow at home.

Ramjets 33 – Drow 25

Old No. 7 (2-5) @ Bill's Team (3-4)

The first of a Middle division double-header. Last week, Bill pounded Jason at home. This week, No. 7 looks for revenge, but will have to do it on the road. I think this is finally the week CJ gets it going. That and a solid game from Cam should allow Bill to take the sweep.

Prediction: No. 7 gets smoked.

Bill 23 – ON7 0

Malleus Maleficarum (6-1) @ Rednecks (4-2-1)

The second Middle division double-header, this time featuring the Malleus/Redneck rivalry. Last week, both teams were without their starting QBs and Haydn took it to my team. This week, both starting RBs are out. The Rednecks figure to get Johnson back from injury, but Malleus does have the advantage in terms of RB. I am usually pretty strong at home, but I don’t have a good feeling about this one.

Prediction: More competitive than last week, but still the same results.

Malleus 24 – Rednecks 16

Computer Rankings 2011 Debut

2011-10-25T15:00:00.000-04:00

If we consider John's rankings as the equivalent of a coach's poll, I'm here to bring you the computer rankings. Using FLOF scores from last year and this year I convert every total score over the last 4 weeks into a percentile that is effectively that score's chance to beat any other score that has occurred recently in FLOF. I use these scores to create an Expected Win Percentage. So, if you score 72 total points you have a 50/50 chance to win. If you score 96 points you have an 83% chance to win, etc. Using this method I rank our teams at the half way flag.

	median	average	variance
Capo	.74	.68	.19
Drow	.71	.75	.15
Bill	.53	.54	.18
Beav	.51	.54	.28
Roger	.48	.49	.31
Malleus	.44	.43	.17
IC Lagers	.41	.45	.27
Mimes	.41	.42	.19
NY	.37	.47	.24
Rednecks	.34	.35	.29
No. 7	.34	.35	.26
Flannel	.20	.27	.28

Then I used this information to predict the rest of the season. Here's the computer's predictions:

Left:
Drow 9.1 wins, division crown
Lagers 7.8 wins, wild card
Beavers 7.0 wins
Mimes 6.6 wins

Middle:
Malleus 9.8 wins, division crown, bye
Rednecks 8.0 wins, wild card
Bill 7.5 wins
Old No. 7 5.5 wins

Right
CAPO 9.1 wins, division crown, bye
Ramjets 8.0 wins, wild card
Flannel 5.5 wins
Hamburglers 4.8 wins

Results

2011-10-25T12:07:00.001-04:00

I am feeling under the weather today. I will post result tomorrow. Sorry about the late article this week!

Week 7 Preview

2011-10-21T12:18:00.002-04:00

GAME OF THE WEEK

Rednecks (4-1-1) @ Malleus Maleficarum (5-1)

The featured contest this week pits a pair of one loss teams vying for control of the Middle Division. Both teams will be without their normal starting QB’s, but Malleus is set to bring Carson Palmer in to save the day. It remains to be seen if Joe Flacco will be a better start than not starting anyone at all. Looking at the matchups this week, I think the offense is about even. I think this comes down to defense and Malleus has the best one in FLoF.

Prediction: Rednecks fall on the road.

Malleus 15 – Rednecks 10

Iron City Lagers (3-3) @ Export Flannel (2-3-1)

Two middle-of-their-division teams that look to get into the back in the mix after losses last week. The Lagers feature the dangerous combo of Stafford and Johnson while Flannel doesn’t even appear they will be starting a QB or RB this week. Even shorthanded on defense, I think Tim pounds Clay’s team without much thought.

Prediction: Flannel gets blanked at home.

Lagers 23 – Flannel 0

Mighty Midtowne Mimes (2-4) @ N.Y. Hamburglers (1-5)

In one of two ‘change the channel’ games this week, two teams at the bottom of their divisions have at it. I guess Josh Freeman could have a huge game and carry the day for Darrin, but it appears to me that the Hamburglers are set to make it two in a row this week, with another solid defensive outing in the cards.

Prediction: Toilet Bowl preview?

Hamburglers 20 – Mimes 10

Murrysville Drow (4-2) @ Capo Di Tutti Capi (3-3)

The Left Division leader travels to meet a dangerous Capo team. Aaron Rodgers has been on fire of late, but Capo counters with a strong duo of Brees and Rice. This game appears like it will be an offensive showdown, and plenty of it, especially since neither team is carrying a very solid D. It would not surprise me if the over/under on this game is over 70, with the winner scoring 40 or more points.

Prediction: Capo pulls the upset.

Capo 40 – Drow 33

Fightin' Bitin' Beavers (3-3) @ Roger's Ramjets (4-2)

Tim Tebow gets the call to fix the QB situation for Steve, while Roger and his record breaking offense await him. About the only matchups I like for Roger is the WR position, and even that is hobbled by a NE bye. I am not crazy about the Beaver’s matchups either, but I do think they are coming into the game with a better defense. That, in the end, will be what gets it done for the FBB.

Prediction: Beavers make it interesting in the Left.

Beavers 28 – Ramjets 18

Bill's Team (2-4) @ Old No. 7 (2-4)

The other ‘change the channel’ game. For Bill, Cam Newton has been coming back to earth of late and the RB is still a concern. On Jason’s side, we got Seabass and Mike Turner, but which version of Turner will you get this week? This is actually a tough game to call. The matchup looks decent for both teams, but somehow that never seems to works out for either of them. I guess I will side with the team with home field advantage.

Prediction: Does it matter?

Bottle 26 – Bill 21

Week 6 Power Rating

2011-10-20T13:36:00.004-04:00

I started off wanting to do a grading system, but have since decided it just isn’t exactly the way I wanted it (I know, after 6 week I decide that), so I am moving to a more traditional power rating system. Less thought required on my part and all.

1. Malleus

After a week hiatus, this team is back in the top slot this week. A league high defense will keep you in most games, even if the offensive –especially Tom Brady - output has tapered off from a hot start.

2. Ramjets

Defense was a killer this week. Supporting the best offense in FLoF will win this team its share of games. At least Schaub doesn’t have to play against the Baltimore D again this year.

3. CAPO

A good team that finally gets into the win column. Knew you couldn't keep Brees and Rice down forever. Capo has had some unlucky breaks, but maybe this is the start of a move up the Right?

4. Drow

Moved to the top of the Left Division. Feels like this team is starting to roll, especially with Aaron under center. That is, if the defense stays on board.

5. Rednecks

Average didn’t cut it this week. Still, something to be said about consistent, or lucky. Probably one Mike Vick injury from renaming this team ‘The Walking Dead’.

6. Beavers

Suffered a setback this week. QB plays seems to be an ongoing issue. Alex Smith didn’t really help.

7. Mimes

Got this win this week with an impressive overall performance. RB play is worrisome and Hillis seems to be suffering from appearing on the Madden cover.

8. Old No. 7

Lost a game that on a normal week would have been a win. At least Michael Turner is coming to life.

9. Flannel

Other than McCoy, last week was bad. 9 points on D? Ouch.

10. Lagers

Foster can’t seem to get on track. Best is out with an injury. Shonn Greene isn’t doing much. Stafford and CJ still look to carry this team.

11. Bill

So much for the Tim Hightower era. At least CJ2K comes back. Nevemind.

12. Hamburglers

Pretty sure Darrell won’t be putting up 27 points a game, but a win is a win.

Week 6 Recap

2011-10-18T15:22:00.004-04:00

Hamburglers WIN! The Rednecks and Ramjets fall. I am 50/50 again this week and 12 for 30 for my predictions moving into the midway point of the year.

Mighty Midtowne Mimes 21 - Fightin' Bitin' Beavers 0

The Beavers get blanked on the road thanks to a strong defensive effort from the Mimes. Newcomer Alex Smith did not impress subbing for Kevin Kolb this week, and the rest of the offensive did nothing much for Steve. Meanwhile, the Mimes finally close out one with an impact game by Josh Freeman and keep the Mimes in the hunt in the Left.

Murrysville Drow 40 - Iron City Lagers 11

This game wasn’t nearly as close as I thought it would be. Aaron Rogers was his usual self this week, but an unexpected big game from Rashard Mendenhall sends the Drow over 60 offensive points this week and keep them at the top of the Left. Matthew Stafford was the only player to contribute double digit points; that and a subpar defensive effort doomed the Lagers as they fall off the pace.

Capo Di Tutti Capi 27 - Rednecks 10

I have been calling for this loss for weeks, and indeed, this was the week that the luck finally ran out for the Rednecks. Victor Cruz and Dez Bryant came up small, and the defensive effort was countered by a good game from the Capo’s Drew Brees and Ray Rice. The loss knocks off the last undefeated team and the lead in the Middle for the ‘necks while propelling Capo into contention in the Right.

Bill's Team 25 - Roger's Ramjets 12

The offensive output for Roger wasn’t really that bad, just a tough matchup for Matt Schaub kept him from his normal output this week, despite the big game from Fred Jackson. Bill actually didn’t do that much offensively, with Tim Hightower sitting this one out, but the defense had Bill covered while Roger had next to nothing. The loss from Roger allows the Right to tighten a little while Bill makes a move in the Middle.

N.Y. Hamburglers 17 - Old No. 7 6

The Hamburglers finally get off the schneid and get their first win of the year. The offensive outputs from both teams were about even, but the difference was the huge Monday-nighter from Darrell Revis. Billy Cundiff and Matt Ryan counter a great game from Michael Turner and keeps 7 from moving in the Middle. Post-game, an exuberant Jamie tries to bare-chest bump Jason and narrowly avoids a midfield fight.

Malleus Maleficarum 42 - Export Flannel 5

Malleus takes the home game their home game this week. Tom Brady and Matt Forte were just average, but it really didn’t matter with the weak 9 point defensive effort turned in by the Flannel squad. The 17 point game turned in by LeSean McCoy was about the only reason Flannel wasn’t blanked this week. Malleus reclaims the pole position in the Middle while a Flannel loss keeps them from gaining in the Right.

Monday Night Preview

2011-10-17T18:32:00.004-04:00

Nothing interesting to report this week. We can all (except Jason) root for David Harris and Darelle Revis to score more than 20 and get Jamie his first win, he deserves it. That's about it. 2 teams with WRs rubbing in the win, 2 teams with 2 Defensive players left looking at 20 point deficits.

Beavers (0) vs. Mimes (26)
Beavers have Wake and Yeremiah Bell. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.
Staying with the Mighty Midtowners.

Lagers (11) vs. Drow (40) - Done

Capo (15) vs. Rednecks (10)
Capo has Holmes, so this just gets worse. First real loss for Rednecks.

Ramjets (12) vs. Bill (17)
Bill has Brandon Marshall, unless him getting ejected costs Bill 6 points, Bill wins.

Hamburglers (17) vs. O7 (6)
The 'burglers have Harris and Revis, again, not likely enough to get them their first win, but they do keep getting closer...EXCEPT when Revis starts the game with a pick 6 and finishes with 27 points. First win for Hamburglers!

Flannel (5) vs. Malleus (42) - Done

Week 6 Preview

2011-10-14T12:00:00.000-04:00

GAME OF THE WEEK

Iron City Lagers (3-2) @ Murrysville Drow (3-2)

The Lagers visit the Drow in a game that looks to start clearing up the logjam in the Left. The Drow are winners of 2 straight and look to be improving after a rough start, while the Lagers have been up and down, taking a win last week. I like Drow’s matchup of Rogers to Jennings to put up more than the Lager’s matchup of Stafford to Johnson this week, with the deciding points to come from a better RB matchup for Doug.

Prediction: Drow at home.

Drow 38 – Lagers 30

Fightin' Bitin' Beavers (3-2) @ Mighty Midtowne Mimes (1-4)

The Beavers are fresh of upset of undefeated Malleus last week and travel to meet a Mimes team that hasn’t won since week 2. As of this writing, the Mimes haven’t set their roster. If they play who I think they should, I do like the matchups to give Steve fits this week and keep it close. I still think the Mimes find a way to drop this one though.

Prediction: Beavers keep pace in the Left.

Beavers 28 – Mimes 21

Capo Di Tutti Capi (2-3) @ Rednecks (4-0-1)

Not sure what to make of this Capo team. On paper, the matchups look great almost every week, but that somehow doesn’t seem to translate into wins for the Capo squad. This week is no exception as they face the still undefeated –and very lucky– Rednecks. I think Brees and Rice finally come through and score more at their position than the competition this week, and steal one away for Capo.

Prediction: The Rednecks luck finally runs out.

Capo 35 – Rednecks 27

Roger's Ramjets (4-1) @ Bill's Team (1-4)

Roger and his league’s best offense take the show on the road to meet Bill. Bill still has RB issues that are not settled, but Cam Newton should make a game of it. Roger has a tougher matchup at QB this week, but has better matchups than Bill at almost every other position. I think Roger will run over Bill and put another game into the win column.
Update: Just noticed the Hightower acquisition from Bill. Who knows if that is who Shanny actually starts this week? I don’t think it helps. I'll give Bill a couple more points in the loss.
Prediction: Ramjets extend their lead in the Right.

Ramjets 44 – Bill 22 26

N.Y. Hamburglers (0-5) @ Old No. 7 (2-3)

Both teams are at the bottom in terms of Power Ranking and neither team has been particularly impressive this year. To date, the whiskey bottle has only won in even number weeks, while the ‘burglers have not won at all. I do expect a good effort this week from Jamie, but since this is week 6, I look for 7 to keep it at home, with Seabass yet again the higher scorer for that squad.

Prediction: Old No. 7 evens their record to 3-3.

Bottle 27 – Hamburglers 19

Export Flannel (2-2-1) @ Malleus Maleficarum (4-1)

Malleus fell from the unbeaten ranks last week and face a better-than-you-think Flannel team. I like Tom Brady and Matt Forte to chalk up another good game, but the WR output from Haydn’s team will allow Clay to counter with nearly the same offensive output. The differences in this game will most likely come down to the defense and home field.

Prediction: Advantage, Malleus.

Malleus 33 – Flannel 26

Week 5 Grades

2011-10-13T12:51:00.002-04:00

Ramjets

Grade: A

This week brings a new head of the class in FLoF. The offense is dominating and they look well positioned to ride out the NFL byes with a strong bench.

Malleus

Grade: A-

The offense is faltering a bit, with Tom Brady returning to earth. Still, a league-leading defense will keep them in almost every game and V-Jax should prove to be a nice addition. Guess it is about time to completely remake the roster at this point for Haydn.

CAPO

Grade: B+

This team looked too strong to keep losing and this week brings a much need win. Still, does beating the Ham team even count?

Rednecks

Grade: B-

The luck streak continues - winning yet another game they probably should have lost. It looks to be a weekly issue at the WR and DB positions for this team.

Drow

Grade: B-

This team is starting get it together offensively after a shaky start. I would still be a little concerned about the defense.

Beavers

Grade: C+

Peterson came to life in a big way for this team. The QB position looks to be the Achilles heel for this team as the last 2 week they would have been better off not even starting one.

Flannel

Grade: C

Eli looked good for another game and the defense is still pretty strong. Leaving players active while their team is on a bye doesn’t really get you anywhere.

Lagers

Grade: C

Stafford to Johnson still powers this team, but at least there were contribution from the rest of the squad. The defense is still sketchy.

Bill

Grade: C-

Good thing this team drafted Cam Newton. Outside of that, the rest of this team is disappointing. With Chris Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, I know this team expected better.

Mimes

Grade: C-

A perplexing team. Looking at the roster, this team should be better than it has been. Too many inconsistent efforts week-to-week.

Old No. 7

Grade: D

When a kicker is consistently your best player every week, it is tough to win many games.

Hamburglers

Grade: F

Is a winless season in store? This team cannot seem to catch a break.

Week 5 Recap

2011-10-11T10:38:00.003-04:00

Yet another week of mixed results, going 3 for 6 again this week. Through 5 weeks, the Left is still a scrum at the top, while the Middle and Right are starting to separate.

Iron City Lagers 35 - Bill's Team 28

I was correct in guessing that Calvin Johnson’s streak of 2 TDs per game would be broken, but that was pretty much it for this game. The Stafford to Johnson connection proved to be too much for Cam Newton and Bill. Chris Johnson finally showed up for a little effort, but Bill was sunk by poor WR play and fall to the Lagers on the road.

Rednecks 26 - Mighty Midtowne Mimes 23

The Rednecks squeak by the Mimes behind a strong game from new addition Victor Cruz. The Mimes waste the efforts of Dwayne Bowe and Jared Allen and fall even further behind the pace in the Left. With the Rednecks win and the Malleus loss, the Rednecks remain the last undefeated team in FLoF.

Capo Di Tutti Capi 28 - N.Y. Hamburglers 2

So much for my surprise game from the ‘burglers. The Hamburglers did finally have contributions from the RB position; it was just a shame that was the only offense from this team. DeAngelo Williams was a fine bye-week replacement for Capo and the entire offense was just too much despite a great defensive effort from the still winless Ham.

Roger's Ramjets 44 - Export Flannel 25

Roger and his league leading offense keep on rolling, downing a game effort from Flannel. Hard to say if it would have helped, but starting a WR on a bye will not get you very far, especially against Roger’s combo of Matt Schaub and Fred Jackson. Roger’s win puts him further out in front of the Right Division.

Murrysville Drow 36 - Old No. 7 23

I predicted the outcome correctly; it just failed to be the offensive onslaught I called for. Aaron Rogers showed up to play for Drow, but Ryan Fitzpatrick did not for 7, which proved to be the difference in the game. Drow’s win keeps the Left Division muddled at the top.

Fightin' Bitin' Beavers 30 - Malleus Maleficarum 12

Adrian Petersons big day power the Beavers to a win over the previously undefeated Malleus. Tom Brady and Matt Forte were just average, while new addition Vincent Jackson failed to contribute for the Hammer. Despite Kevin Kolb’s best effort to sink the Beaver squad, Steve’s team got solid contribution from the rest of the team in the victory.

Monday Night Preview

2011-10-10T14:28:00.002-04:00

Looks like this week the Left decided to get revenge for John and I rubbing in the 0-4 (actually 1-3) showing last week against the Middle. Here's a look at tonight's match-ups:

Bill 28 vs. ICL 2
Bill is done and Lagers have Megatron and Stafford. Can those 2 combine for 27 and the win? Probably. This will be one to watch.
Lagers pulls out the victory by 5 points.

Rednecks 27 vs. Mimes 33
Rednecks is spotting Mimes a 6 point advantage with a defensive player left for each team. Urlacher v. Avril. I know Cutler's O-line doesn't like him but I have to give the advantage to Darin and Urlacher with a 6 point lead.
This one stays with Mimes.

Capo 28 vs. Hamburglers 2
Done. Jamie is officially the unluckiest guy in FLOF, but his team looks better.

Flannel 25 vs. Ramjets 47
Ramjets are done and Flannel has Suh and Santana Moss, oh wait he's on a bye, so just Suh. Can he score 23 against Chicago's O-line? Maybe, but not while being double and triple teamed every play.
This one stays with the 'Jets.

Old No. 7 23 vs. Drow 49
Drow is done and Whiskey has Tillman and Tulloch. Again, possible but very unlikely.
Drow keeps the victory.

Malleus 2 vs. Beavers 24
The Hammer has Forte, Beavers still have Hanson. Looks like the Hammer finally loses as new WR VJax gets him a whopping 1 point.
Even if Forte repeats his 29 (which he won't), Hanson still edges out the win.

Week 5 Preview

2011-10-07T15:49:00.001-04:00

GAME OF THE WEEK

Export Flannel (2-1-1) @ Roger's Ramjets (3-1)

Eli Manning and LeSean McCoy travel to meet the Ramjet’s Matt Schaub and Fred Jackson. Eli has been playing much better lately and it has started to show up in wins for Flannel. The Ramjet’s have the best offense in FLoF right now and looking at the matchups, I see no reason for that to be any different this week. Actually, I think we could see a high scoring game, as the matchups are pretty good for both teams. For Roger, I might actually be a little concerned that Clay is bringing out Suh against Chicago this week. Given the Bears O-line, Suh might end up with double digit sacks this week.

Prediction: I’ll take the Ramjets in an offensive showdown.

Ramjets 46 – Flannel 35

Bill's Team (1-3) @ Iron City Lagers (2-2)

Both teams look to get back on track after tough losses last week (especially since Bill appeared to win that one for a few days). Bill looks to continue to ride the hot hand of Cam Newton while hoping that Chris Johnson finally comes around. Tim’s team features the dynamic duo of Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson. I think Stafford and Johnson get stymied this week a little and Johnson's streak of 2 TD per game will be broken, while at the same time, CJ finally gets it going for Bill.

Prediction: Bill surprises the Lagers on the road.

Bill 29 – Lagers 23

Rednecks (3-0-1) @ Mighty Midtowne Mimes (1-3)

The Mimes's Philip Rivers host Mike Vick and the undefeated Rednecks. I think Philip Rivers has a great game this week, but it remains to be seen what is going to happen at the RB position for this team. I also think this will be a bounce back week, of sorts, for Darin’s defense. Meanwhile, the Rednecks appear to have decent matchups with Vick and McFadden, although the WR seems to be a concern now. It remains to be seen if Vic Cruz is the answer.

Prediction: Rednecks win a close one.

Rednecks 27 – Mimes 23

Capo Di Tutti Capi (1-3) @ N.Y. Hamburglers (0-4)

Jamie’s Hamburglers are traveling with shiny, new RB Jones-Drew to take on the Drew Brees-led Capo. I predict that Brees will get plenty of points for Chris, but the loss of Rice will sting a bit. Conversely, I like Matt Ryan to have a good game and the troublesome RB position to finally post decent numbers for Jamie. It would not surprise me if it came down to ‘who has the home field advantage’ to determine the victor.

Prediction: The Hamburglers take home field and finally get into the ‘W’ column.

Hamburglers 22 – Capo 20

Old No. 7 (2-2) @ Murrysville Drow (2-2)

Both of these teams meet fresh off week 4 wins. Drow features a potentially high scoring attack with Aaron Rogers and Ryan Matthews, while 7 will counter with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Michael Turner. Doug posted league-high numbers last week, and I think this week’s matchup could be more of the same. Although I think Jason’s team will hold its own, he will eventually get buried in the Drow tidal wave.

Prediction: Drow piles it on.

Drow 44 – Whiskey 21

Malleus Maleficarum (4-0) @ Fightin' Bitin' Beavers (2-2)

The undefeated Drow host a Beaver’s team looking to keep the pace in the Left. For Steve, Kevin Kolb and AP disappointed last week, but I do like this week’s matchup. The Beaver’s will feature new WR Jimmy Graham, while Haydn’s team usually has so much turnover week-to-week, I am afraid to make any comment about specific players that start for him. I do like Matt Forte and new addition Vincent Jackson this week and I think it will be enough to keep the Beavers winless in their last 2 attempts.

Prediction: The Hammer stays unbowed.

Malleus 34 – Beavers 24

Week 4 Grades

2011-10-06T14:03:00.000-04:00

Malleus

Grade: A

The offense is clicking - Tom Brady falters a bit but Matt Forte answers with a great game. Supporting the league-high defense doesn’t hurt either. If this team ever figures out what to do at the WR position, look out.

Ramjets

Grade: A-

Last week I said they needed another solid effort, and they could be considered a dangerous team. With this week’s solid game in the books and a league-high scoring offense, they are officially just that.

Rednecks

Grade: B

The WR position that once looked to be an area of strength is now a concern. Still catching teams at the right time. Guess it is better to be lucky than good?

CAPO

Grade: B

Still not sure what to make of this team. I don’t think their record is a reflection of the team. This team needs to start winning or it doesn’t really matter.

Drow

Grade: B-

The team finally responded with a solid effort. More to come or a lucky bounce? Too bad he has to battle the competition as well as faulty score keeping.

Beavers

Grade: C+

Just when it appears this team is ready to roll, they lay an egg. At least in the Left Division, they are tied for the lead.

Flannel

Grade: C

Escaped with a win this week. Still, a win is a win. Eli looks to be getting on track, so at least there are signs of life after some early struggles.

Mimes

Grade: C

I made a comment about their defense being consistent and they promptly respond with a bad day. Guess you don’t want me to write anything positive about your team at this point.

Lagers

Grade: C-

Stafford to Johnson. Sooner or later, someone else will have to do something. Especially on defense.

Bill

Grade: D

Finally, some signs of life from CJY2K. If he gets rolling and Cam stays hot, this team could be moving up quick.

Old No. 7

Grade: D

The offense showed up with a decent effort. Even with the win this week, that defense is worrisome.

Hamburglers

Grade: F

Finally found a pulse on this team. Leaving your best player on the bench will still keep you losing.

Week 3 Scoring Correction

2011-10-06T09:18:00.002-04:00

There was a significant scorekeeper error in the Drow v. Bill game - I put Newton's pyards in cyards giving Bill and extra 21 bonus points. Bill actually brought this to my attention - so the sportsmanship award goes to Bill this week instead of awarding the biggest loser (sorry Jamie but that was you for not playing Jackson). Just a reminder: check you box scores! I double check and triple check these things every week, and this is the first time I've seen anything this bad, but let me know if you see a mistake, I'd rather fix it Monday or Tuesday morning.

Week 3 Recap

2011-10-04T11:51:00.001-04:00

Only slightly better for my predictions this time. I went 3 for 6, so at least it was 50/50 this time. I did fare better than the Left Division, as it went 0-4 against the Middle this week. All of the games were relatively competitive, with no blow outs this week.

Bill's Team 59 - Murrysville Drow 55

This was a tough week for the Drow, where his team scored 110 points and lost - which was only slightly more painful than a Marion Barber touchdown celebration. If Doug had played any other team, his score this week would have been enough for the win. Aaron Rogers posted a whopping 47 point, but it was short of a great counter effort by Bill’s Cam Newton. The difference in this game was a slight better defensive effort and the home field advantage for Bill’s Team. Bill evens his record to 2-2, while Drow fall to 1-3.

Rednecks 23 - Fightin' Bitin' Beavers 8

Another week for the Rednecks where it wasn’t so much a good effort as it was the lack of effort from the opposing team. For the Beavers, Kevin Kolb posted a goose egg and wasted a great game from Charles Woodson and an overall monster defensive day. Michael Vick and Matt Bryant provided the only offense from the Rednecks, but it was enough to outlast the Beavers and snap their 2 game win streak. The Rednecks remain undefeated, improving their record to 3-0-1. The Beavers drop to 2-2, but remain tied for the Left Division lead.

Export Flannel 31 - N.Y. Hamburglers 30

A nail-biter as the Hamburglers made much more of a game of it than anticipated. Neither team was terribly impressive, but Flannel did get a solid effort from Eli Manning. The Hamburglers counter with a good game from Matt Ryan and Vincent Jackson, but inexplicably started no-show C.J. Spiller, leaving Steven Jackson on the bench wondering what happened. In the end, home field advantage saves the day for the 2-1-1 Flannel and leaves the Hamburglers winless in 4 attempts.

Roger's Ramjets 45 - Capo Di Tutti Capi 36

The WR combo of Welker and Smith power the Ramjets to a high scoring victory against a reeling Capo squad. Both teams left their defense at home, but the Ramjet’s get just enough while the Capo’s Santonio Holmes mailed it in and Brees was not his usual high scoring self. The Ramjet’s win moves them into the division lead with a 3-1 record; Capo is left searching for answers at 1-3.

Old No. 7 36 - Iron City Lagers 29

The Stafford to Johnson connection was solid this week for the Lagers, but subpar games from Maclin, Best, and Cole doom this squad to a loss. For No. 7, Michael Turner and Stephen Tulloch provided the spark for the home win, completing the sweep of the Left for the Middle Division. The Lagers go to 2-2 and remain in a tie for the Left Division lead with the Beavers, while No. 7 advances its record to 2-2.

Malleus Maleficarum 33 - Mighty Midtowne Mimes 19

Tom Brady was not overly impressive this week, but instead it is Matt Forte that rung up the huge day for Malleus. The Mimes Payton Hillis and Stevie Johnson fail to capitalize on a double goose egg from the Hammer’s WR corp. Malleus improves their record to a perfect 4-0 and stay atop the Middle Division while the Mimes loss knocks them to 1-3.

Monday Night Preview

2011-10-03T10:50:00.001-04:00

Two games left and they both could come down to the wire. I'm predicting come-from behind victories this week for both games.

Drow 63 @ Bill 59
Bill has Pat Angerer left and already hit the bonus for tackles. Angerer only needs 5 tackles for Bill to win, last week he got 21... If Bill wins, and he should, he completes the sweep of Middle vs. Left. Go Middle!

Hamburglers 25 @ Flannel 31
The 'burglers have Mike Williams left to play, Flannel is done.
Jaime might actually win his first game. Of course if he had remembered to put Steven Jackson back in for Spiller he wouldn't have to worry about it. He did play the right QB this week though.

Ramjets 45 @ Capo 36 - Done.
ICL 29 @ Whiskey 36 - Done.
Mimes 19 @ Malleus 33 - Done.
Beavers 8 @ Rednecks 23 - Done.

Week 3 Preview

2011-09-30T14:28:00.001-04:00

GAME OF THE WEEK

Fightin' Bitin' Beavers (2-1) @ Rednecks (2-0-1)

Fresh off of 2 consecutive wins, the Beavers travel to meet the undefeated Rednecks. The Rednecks have been something of an escape-artist the last few weeks, mostly winning because the other team really didn’t do much. This is the week it catches up as A.P. chocks up a monster day for Steve.

Prediction: Beavers make it 3 in a row.

Beavers 31 – Rednecks 23

Murrysville Drow (1-2) @ Bill's Team (1-2)

Aaron Rodgers and company visit Bill’s Team with rookie QB Newton at the helm. Both teams have had their ups and down, with Rogers the only consistent performer for Doug, while Chris Johnson continues to be a no-show for Bill. Drow actually had a decent week last week and I like Matthews to contribute to this game, while Newton still worries me for Bill.

Prediction: Drow gets back on track.

Drow 28 – Bill 20

N.Y. Hamburglers (0-3) @ Export Flannel (1-1-1)

The struggling Hamburglers come to town and face an improving Flannel squad. Jamie’s RB issues persist while Eli got it going last week for Clay. Look for more of the same from Manning and more choice matchups for Flannel, while the Hamburglers still struggle without a good RB and defense that cannot seem to get it going.

Prediction: Flannel in a rout.

Flannel 40 – Hamburglers 10

Roger's Ramjets (2-1) @ Capo Di Tutti Capi (1 -2)

The Ramjet’s bring the league leading offense to Capo, led by Brees. Chris’s team has actually been pretty good; they have just had the misfortune of running into a hot team. On Roger’s side, they have had 2 very good games with 1 bad one in the middle. I think Roger stays on this rollercoaster and has a down week while Brees goes nuts this week.

Prediction: Capo takes it.

Capo 35 – Ramjets 27

Iron City Lagers (2-1) @ Old No. 7 (1-2)

The whiskey bottle welcomes the Detroit Lagers this week. Both teams have been inconsistent, with Tim’s team getting the better end of the matchups to date. On paper, it appears to be an easier skid for the Lagers, but I got a feeling the matchups are a little closer than they may appears. Look for Stafford and Johnson to get their numbers, but for Jason’s team to get the better numbers behind an unexpected strong game from Michael Turner and Seabass will knock in 2 from over 50.

Prediction: I’ll take 7 at home.

Bottle 27 – Lagers 22

Mighty Midtowne Mimes (1-2) @ Malleus Maleficarum (3– 0)

Tom Brady and Malleus’s league-leading defense await Philip Rivers and the rest of the inconsistent Mimes. Haydn has been pretty unstoppable behind a record setting pace from Brady, while Darin’s Mimes have been up and down so far. Even though Payton Hillis is back from his strep throat, it will not be nearly enough as even MJD gets in on the offensive explosion this week for Malleus.

Prediction: Malleus remains undefeated.

Malleus 42 – Mimes 18

Week 3 Grades

2011-09-29T14:57:00.001-04:00

Malleus

Grade: A

Tom Brady keeps this team on top and now the defense is looking really strong, Still no answers for the WR position. Does it even matter?

Ramjets

Grade: A-

Through 3 weeks, they’ve had 1 bad week sandwiched by 2 very good ones. Hard to figure out this team. With another solid effort, this could be a dangerous team.

CAPO

Grade: B

This team has had strong games that have not necessarily translated into wins. Seems to have the misfortune of running into teams that have great weeks. Drew Brees looks to keep this team in it every week.

Rednecks

Grade: B-

The opposite of Capo. Seems to be getting teams at just the right time. The loss of Britt and Vick’s continuing injury issues hurt.

Beavers

Grade: C+

Seems to be finding their footing after a bad start. Playing the Hamburglers certainly helps.

Flannel

Grade: C

Is this team starting to get it pulled together? Seems to have found some offense. Still don’t trust Eli Manning.

Mimes

Grade: C

The offense is all over the place. At least the defense is consistent.

Lagers

Grade: C

Stafford and Johnson continues to provide the only offense. Still cannot seem to find a reliable RB. Will Foster come back as strong as he was?

Old No. 7

Grade: C-

Defense is all over the place through week 3. At least Sebastian Janikowski can hit them from 50+. There’s that.

Drow

Grade: D

Finally trotted out some defense. Too bad the offense didn’t follow.

Bill

Grade: D

Still no Chris Johnson sighting. And this time Cam Newton didn’t save the day.

Hamburglers

Grade: F

Don’t think C.J. Spiller was the answer to the RB issue. Trying to find something positive to say here. Nothing is coming to mind.

Biggest Losers - Week 3

2011-09-28T15:31:00.002-04:00

1. Capo: Jacobs vs. Rice (+2), Finley vs. Holmes (+22), Anderson vs. Matthews (+7) - 29 points, lost by 7

2. Drow: Mathews vs. Mendenhall (+19) - lost by 12

3. Mimes: Freeman vs. Rivers (+10), Jones vs. Hillis (+11), Bowe vs. Witten (+6) - 27 points, lost by 25

On a side note, no team had 0 points on the bench. This ends a 2 game streak by Capo and Malleus of leaving no points behind.

Week 3 Recap

2011-09-27T16:16:00.002-04:00

Yet another week my predictions were totally off. For the year, I am 4 of 12. Hopefully these will get better as the time goes on. For now, you’re probably better off if I pick you to lose.

Export Flannel 40 - Murrysville Drow 28

Flannel gets a solid outing from Eli Manning and cruises to an easy victory over the struggling Drow. Honestly, it wasn’t a horrible effort from Doug’s team, it just wasn’t enough to pick up the win. Clay picks up his first victory of the year while Drow tumbles to 1-2.

Fightin' Bitin' Beavers 34 – Hamburglers 5

Here is a prediction I nailed. It really wasn’t so much that Steve’s team had a great game as much it was Jamie’s team doing nothing. The Beavers get solid contribution from Mike Wallace and Jason Hanson while the Hamburglers get absolutely nothing from new RB addition C.J. Spiller. The Beavers improve to 2-1 while the Hamburglers remain winless.

Iron City Lagers 37 - Capo Di Tutti Capi 30

Pretty close with the score for this one, I just picked the wrong team to win. It was not the offensive explosion I expected with next to no contribution from the WR for Chris’s team and only the Stafford to Johnson connection contributing for Tim’s team. That connection proved to be the difference in the game as Capo drops one at home. Lagers go to 2-1 and Capo falls to 1-2.

Roger's Ramjets 45 - Mighty Midtowne Mimes 20

This was the 2nd of the prediction I got correct. Roger gets huge efforts from Wes Welker and Matt Schaub while Darin’s team throws up a single point with the QB/RB combo of Philip Rivers and a infirmed Peyton Hillis. The Ramjets move to 2-1 while the Mimes fall to 1-2.

Rednecks 37 - Old No. 7 21

I was happy to have guessed this one wrong. My team opens their home stand with a win behind a monster game from Darrin McFadden. Jamie’s team drops to 1-2 despite the solid game from Ryan Fitzpatrick and fail to capitalize on the loss of Kenny Britt and Mike Vick. The Rednecks remain one of two unbeaten team teams, improving their record to 2-0-1.

Malleus Maleficarum 31 - Bill's Team 0

The upset special that wasn’t. A long as Tom is starting for Haydn’s team, I need to quit picking him to lose. In this game, the Hammer gets a big defensive day to go with Brady’s usual insane numbers, while Bill’s Team really doesn’t provide any real competition, with CJ2K and Cam Newton failing to provide an offensive spark. Malleus remains unbeaten and drop Bill to 1-2.

Monday Night Preview

2011-09-26T10:35:00.005-04:00

Ramjets 50 - Mimes 17
Mimes have Witten and Hall, and might have had Felix Jones if Darin noticed that Hillis had strep throat on Saturday...this is the "closest" game for Monday Night

Flannel 37 - Drow 28
Flannel has Santana Moss left to rub it in some more.

Hamburglers 5 - Beavers 38
The 'burglers have London Fletcher, who is a great linebacker, but...

Capo 30 - ICL 37 - Done

Old No. 7 -37 - Rednecks 47
Rednecks gets new addition LaRon Landry to makes this game less close.

Bill 0 - Malleus 31 - Done

Week 3 Preview

2011-09-23T09:53:00.003-04:00

GAME OF THE WEEK

Capo (1-1) @ Lagers (1-1)

Capo hits the road after a tough game last week, and faces a Lager’s team that struggled last week. Looking up and down the roster of both teams gives me the feeling we could be looking at an explosion on offense. That being said, I do like Capo to come out on the better end of it and hand the Lager’s a home loss.

Prediction: Capo in a close one.

Capo 40 – Lagers 32

Flannel (0-1-1) @ Drow (1-1)

Drow host another game, this time welcoming the Flannel squad. Last week Drow fell with a poor defensive showing, while in the loss, Flannel seemed to start to get back on track. Look for a better defensive showing this week from Doug’s team and Flannel to remain winless with another bad Eli Manning outing.

Prediction: Drow handles Flannel easily.

Drow 28 – Flannel 16

Hamburglers (0-2) @ Beavers (1-1)

The Beaver’s return home after a successful road trip to face a winless Hamburger team. Peterson looks to be rolling for Steve’s squad, while Jamie’s squad looks to be grabbing a free agent RB to shore up that position. The Beaver’s should take this one, while given the Hamburgler’s luck - they most likely grab a RB to watch him end the game on the IR - again.

Prediction: Beavers roll to 2-1.

Beavers 33 – Hamburglers 12

Ramjets (1-1) @ Mimes (1-1)

Roger’s team had a big drop off from his week 1 performance while the Mimes got it going and rolled in week 2. I think the Ramjet’s are better than they showed last week, while the Mime’s may have overachieved last week.

Prediction: Ramjet’s take out the Mimes.

Ramjets 23 – Mimes 15

Old No. 7 (1-1) @ Rednecks (1-0-1)

The undefeated Rednecks host their first game of the year and welcome the Whiskey Bottle fresh off a big win last week. My team got some good news as it appears Vick will be good to go and I finally didn’t have to add a DB to fill out my roster. Jason team looked really good, clicking in almost every area, and hope to continue the momentum. The Rednecks have been just getting by for 2 week and this is the week it finally catches up as No. 7 slaps him with a loss.

Prediction: I like the matchups for the bottle.

Whiskey Bottle 26 – Rednecks 19

Bill (1-1) @ Malleus (2-0)

Undefeated Malleus host Bill’s team that got back on track offensively last week. No problem with the offensive production on Haydn’s squad as Tom Brady continued to post ridiculous numbers. Bill needs to hope that Chris Johnson gets back on track while Malleus just needs to keep it steady. Look for Brady to have a good, but not great, day against a better-than-you-think-they-are Buffalo squad, and without those numbers, the Hammer goes down at home.

Prediction: Upset special – Hammer to 2-1.

Bill 30 – Malleus 25

Week 2 Grades

2011-09-22T11:11:00.001-04:00

Malleus

Grade: A

Behind Tom Brady, Malleus keeps on rolling. The WR position looks like the only area for real improvement.

CAPO

Grade: A-

I cannot drop this team too much; they just ran into a buzz saw this week. Drew Brees and Ray Rice look like a solid 1-2 punch.

Ramjets

Grade: B

Big letdown this week. Is this the team that posted solid number from week 1, or is this week a better indicator of this team?

Rednecks

Grade: B-

Defense is still an issue and now a potential QB issue as Vick could be out. At least the rest of the offense looks solid.

Beavers

Grade: C+

Much better showing this week, posting the best overall score for the week. If AP gets rolling, look out.

Mimes

Grade: C+

Another team with a much better week 2 showing. Another team that leaves you wondering if week 1 or week 2 is the team that shows up.

Old No. 7

Grade: C

Defense came alive this week. So did Milles Austin.

Lagers

Grade: C

Actually this team was consistent from last week to this one - unfortunately, it is just consistently average. Stafford to Johnson looks to keep this team around for most games.

Flannel

Grade: C-

Defensive efforts like that will keep Flannel in most games. Still didn’t translate into a win (unless you count Haydn trying to give it to him yesterday).

Bill

Grade: D

Ok, so maybe Cam Newton won’t kill this team after all. What happened to Chris Johnson?

Drow

Grade: D

Got lucky last week - this week, not so much. Better find someone to play defense and fast.

Hamburglers

Grade: F

Looks like a long year in the works. The RB position has turned into a real concern. I think Jay Cutler may have been sacked in the post-game interview.

Biggest Loser - Week 2

2011-09-21T13:16:00.001-04:00

1. ICL (Lost by 31) - Best outscored Foster by 17 and Maclin outscored Gates by 21 (38 points).

2. Hamburglers (Lost by 36) - Ryan outscored Cutler by 11, Vinitieri ourscored Cundiff by 7 (18 points).

3. Ramjets (Lost by 32) - Jackson outscored Benson by 17.

Second week in a row that Capo and Malleus leave no points on the bench.

Week 2 Recap

2011-09-20T10:39:00.003-04:00

Not a great week with the predictions as I only called 2 games correctly. No home team won this week, with only Flannel managing a tie. The Hammer and Rednecks remain the only undefeated teams.

Mighty Midtowne Mimes 59 - Murrysville Drow 28

Totally missed the mark on this one. Defense was not the key to the game - the Mimes woke up on both offense and defense and post a W while dropping Drow at home. The Drow’s defensive output was the lowest of the week in the loss.

Fightin' Bitin' Beavers 45 - Iron City Lagers 14

Actually pretty near the final score, I just picked the wrong team. It wasn’t even close as Peterson and Woodson come up big for the Beaver’s while Foster and Gates mail it in for the Lagers. Both teams even their record to 1-1.

Bill's Team 49 - N.Y. Hamburglers 23

Got this prediction mostly correct. Got the correct team and wasn’t that totally off with the score. Cam Newton certainly does not crash and looks to be a great pickup for Bill, all while Hamburglers lose the game and Jamal Charles to add injury to insult. Bill moves to 1-1, while Hamburglers remain winless.

Rednecks 28 - Export Flannel 28

I was correct in saying that Flannel would be more competitive this time. Flannel has a much better defensive showing this week, but Manning fails to pull off the win on Monday night. With the tie, the Rednecks remain undefeated and Flannel fails to pick up the win and remain winless.

Old No. 7 40 - Roger's Ramjets 8

Another wild miss on the prediction. The Ramjets D does not produce the same numbers as last week, but No. 7 rebounds and post solid numbers across the board with standout Miles Austin leading the way. Yet another game where both teams even their record to 1-1.

Malleus Maleficarum 42 - Capo Di Tutti Capi 28

Another one where I was close on the score, but picked the wrong team and this game did feature the promised offensive fireworks. Cannot come down too hard on Capo since the numbers he posted would have been good enough to beat most team, but it just was not good enough on this day to get over Malleus with Brady having yet another monster day. The Hammer moves into position as the only 2-0 team and drops Capo to 1-1 at home.

Monday Night Preview

2011-09-19T10:27:00.004-04:00

Only two games might be decided tonight.
Here's a preview of what might happen:

Mimes 59 @ Drow 28
This one is done. Drow has some D issues that need fixing.

Beavers 45 @ ICL 4
Beavers is done and Lagers have a kicker...can he score 42? Umm, no.

Bill 49 @ Hamburglers 23
This one is done too. Is Jamie the unluckiest guy in FLOF?

Rednecks 28 @ Flannel 27
Rednecks have James Lauranaitis (DF, StL), and Flannel have
Eli Manning. Usually I would side with the QB, but Eli hasn't
looked so great. I still have to give the edge to Clay.

Old No. 7 22 @ Ramjets 8
Whiskey has Sam Bradford against the specific instructions of his
co-manager to start Fitzpatrick who would've scored 25...
Ramjets are done, so it doesn't actually matter.

Malleus 48 @ Capo 35
The Hammer has Quitin Mikell (DB, StL), and Capo has Nicks
and Pierre-Paul. Can a WR and DF outscore a DB by 14?
Well, yes, they very well might. I just hope they don't.
My gut says the Hammer holds on by a slim margin.

Week 2 Preview

2011-09-16T10:04:00.001-04:00

GAME OF THE WEEK

Malleus (1-0) @ Capo (1-0)

Capo draws Malleus at home in my game of the week. Last week, both teams won in blow outs. Each one brings potentially explosive offenses to the game and this game could be a shootout. Chris’s team needs a little more consistent production from the WR slot while Haydn’s team could stand someone outside Tom Brady to contribute at that level. Look for Capo’s WR corp. to crank it up a little; as for Malleus, Tommy will come back to earth a little from his record day. I think there is plenty of offense in this game, but ultimately Capo pulls the win.

Prediction: Capo: tough team, at home, equals 2-0.

Capo 38 – Malleus 30

Mimes (0-1) @ Drow (1-0)

Drow welcomes the Mimes, in Drow’s home opener. Drow squeaked one by last week with an injured kicker potentially handing him a win and will need someone other than Aaron Rodgers to step up. Mimes needs more production from the RB and WR positions, but the matchups this week may be just the ticket. The offensive production for both teams should be up and this could come down to who fields the better defense.

Prediction: I like Darrin’s team to keep it close, but I like Doug’s matchups better.

Drow 34 – Mimes 28

Beavers (0-1) @ Lagers (1-0)

Lagers get the Beaver’s in their home opener. Tim had a strong opening last week, with the RB position in the person of 1st round pick Shonne Green letting them down, while Steve came ‘oh-so-close’ to pulling off a win. The Beaver’s need more production on both side of ball, while Lager’s just needs more of the same.

Prediction: Beaver’s fall to 0-2 and it isn’t close.

Lager’s 40 – Beavers 18

Bill (0-1) @ Hamburglers (0-1)

Both teams opened to a loss and try to get back on track in Hamburglers home start. Both teams failed to impress, with Bill leaving his defense at home and Jamie’s troubles tied directly to Matt Ryan. I think Hamburglers get on track with his team showing much better than week 1. Bill on the other hand: Cam Newton crashes back to earth and takes this team with him.

Prediction: Just can’t get excited about any of Bill’s matchups.

Bill 30 – Hamburglers 10

Rednecks (1-0) @ Flannel (0-1)

Flannel hosts the Rednecks, in their 2nd away game to open the season. The Rednecks opened with a solid effort last week, getting solid contributions from both the offense and defense, while Flannel mailed it in and was promptly run over by a tough Capo team. Look for a competitive game this week as there isn’t really much place for Clay to go than up and John will still be searching for a stable defensive backfield.

Prediction: Flannel is more game this week, but it still isn’t enough, and the Rednecks take another away game.

Rednecks 33 – Flannel 19

Old No. 7 (0-1) @ Ramjets (1-0)

The Ramjets get No. 7 at home this week. Roger’s team clicked on both sides of the ball and won his last game in a rout. Jason did bring a little bit of offense but practically no defense and was promptly bowled over. I like No. 7 to bring a better game and I seriously doubt the Ramjets will duplicate last week’s performance. That being said, I still think the Ramjets win going away.

Prediction: Ramjets bring the D again.

Ramjets 24 – Whiskey Bottle 0

Week 1 Report Card

2011-09-14T15:26:00.000-04:00

Ramjets

Grade: A+

FLOF Power Rank: 130

Can Steve Smith and Terrell Suggs keep going at that pace? Ramjets will need more from Matt Schaub to stay here.

Malleus

Grade: A

FLOF Power Rank: 118

Malleus benefits from Tom Brady’s record day. He better hope he stays upright.

CAPO

Grade: A

FLOF Power Rank: 115

Solid contribution from almost everyone on both offense and defense. This team could be scary.

Rednecks

Grade: B-

FLOF Power Rank: 94

Vick was average, but the rest of the offense contributed nicely. Needs to find a DB to field that actually last the game, or this could be a long season.

Lagers

Grade: C+

FLOF Power Rank: 83

Good, but not great, effort. Is Shonne Green becoming an afterthought for the Jets?

Mimes

Grade: C

FLOF Power Rank: 71

Will need more offensive production to get it done. Looks like another streaky year for Dwayne Bowe.

Drow

Grade: C

FLOF Power Rank: 67

Outside of Aaron Rodgers, Drow cannot be too happy with his team’s output. But a win is a win.

Old No. 7

Grade: D+

FLOF Power Rank: 61

Wouldn’t have helped, but No. 7 cannot be thrilled with Bradford’s performance. Defense was a letdown too.

Beavers

Grade: D

FLOF Power Rank: 59

Beaver may have pulled this game off except for the loss of Kaeding. Otherwise, still a mediocre showing.

Hamburglers

Grade: D-

FLOF Power Rank: 56

Jamal Charles, at home, versus Buffalo = 9 points? That hurts.

Flannel

Grade: F

FLOF Power Rank: 53

Too bad McCoy was the only one that bothered to play. Another long year for the Men in plaid?

Bill

Grade: F

FLOF Power Rank: 52

The offense was weak, but the defense was non-existent. Did the hold-out affect CJ2K?

First NFL Game Tonight!

2011-09-08T14:53:00.001-04:00

Don't forget to set your rosters, Saints and Packets tonight. Are you ready for some football?

FLOF Draft

2011-09-04T13:50:00.005-04:00

New Day: Tuesday, 9/6 @ 9:00 pm ET

http://www.lucidphoenix.com/flof/draft/

FLOF Draft First Round Predictions

2011-09-04T13:49:00.000-04:00

1. Flannel: RB Frank Gore
McCoy is a solid starter for Clay but he needs a back-up RB and this is probably the best chance for him to pick one up since his next pick isn't until round 3. I could also see him going WR here as that looks like the biggest opportunity to improve his team.

2. Hamburglers: WR Mike Williams (TB)
I have Jamie drafting for value here and taking what looks like the highest value player on the board if you are drafting for this year. I could see Hamburglers going for a developmental player to franchise as well but there are not as many high profile rookie QBs and RBs as there were last year. Hamburglers also have a ton of picks this draft which gives them extra flexibility.

3. Bill: QB Colt McCoy
Bill needs a QB desperately. A second option might be Cam Newton. Both Newton and McCoy are young starters who could have upside for the future but might also bring some stats for this year.

4. CAPO: RB Ahmad Bradshaw
Chris pretty much always goes RB in the first round and he doesn't have any other glaring needs. He already has Jacobs so Bradshaw seems like a good fit for him.

5. Beavers: WR Antonio Gates
Steve only has 1 WR on his roster after franchising and Antonio Gates may be the best this year player left on the draft board so I think this is the pick. Steve also has picked 3 WRs in his last 6 1st round picks.

6. Rednecks: RB Shonn Green
RB might be the place John can improve most and currently has the least depth at on offense.

7. Ramjets: RB Knowshon Moreno
I think RB is Roger's biggest area of need on offense and so he tries to add a piece here with the best rated RB still on the board.

8. Mimes: WR Santonio Holmes
Darin already has a starting roster after franchising including backup a QB and RB. So he is just looking for the best player available. I think he picks up a WR here and grabs Holmes.

9. Drow: RB Mark Ingram
Despite Doug's deserved reputation as a QB whore, he's taken 3 RBs and only 1 QB in the first round in his last 6 picks. He also has taken more players in the first round that ended up on the practice squad then anyone else recently. So despite the big off-season trade for Mendenhall, I'll give me a RB who could end up on the PS.

10. Old No. 7: QB Cam Newton
Jason likes going QB or RB in round one and also likes to tap rookies early so I'm going with a top rookie QB here.

11. Lagers: QB Blaine Gabbert
Tim needs QB help but there isn't any available this year so he takes a shot at future potential before spending his remaining picks on guys to fill out his roster.

12. Rednecks: QB Ryan Mallet
John doesn't need anything you usually take in round 1 and has a ton of picks this draft so its too soon to go after defense or kickers so I think he takes a QB prospect. Mallet can replace Max Hall on the practice squad.

Completely Worthless post franchising predictions

2011-09-03T23:15:00.000-04:00

Playoff Teams:

Drow (left div champ)
CAPO (right div champ)
Rednecks (middle div champ)
Malleus (1st wild card)
Mimes (2nd wild card)
Hamburglers (3rd wild card)

Malleus Wins Second FLoF Bowl in 3 Years

2011-01-18T10:22:00.002-05:00

In an exciting game that had both teams watching what Tom Brady would do on Sunday, Malleus squeezed out a victory over the renovated Brawlers-now-Lagers. Congrats to Tim for turning a bad team completely around and almost pulling out a FLoF Bowl win, and congrats to me for again being awesome. This one came down to a really bad game from Matt Cassel (-7 points) and otherwise mediocre scores all around. Prior to Brady's 13 points the highest offensive output of the game was Lager's kicker scoring 12. Decent defense almost left this one as a 0-0 tie but Brady managed enough to get the win for the Hammer. Next up for all you fellow FLoF-ers: ProBowl balloting and getting ready for next year's draft.

FLOF Playoffs

2010-12-29T13:02:00.000-05:00

Mallues and Lagers Headed to FLOF Bowl 14.

Malleus 36 - Drow 8
Malleus had a solid, if unspectacular score and routed Drow who collapsed team-wide. Down by 40+ heading into Tuesday night, Vick was unable to single-handed win Drow the game. Malleus have now won 4 in a row against Drow in the last 3 years, including playoffs. Malleus are headed to their 2nd FLOF Bowl.

Lagers 30 - Old No.7 10
Lagers put together the best game this weekend by far and outlasted a game Old No. 7. The whiskey bottle's offense was bad for the second week in a row. This time the opposition was stiffer and their defense was unable to bail them out. Lagers got a huge game from Matt Cassel and are headed to their 1st FLOF Bowl.

Playoff Preview

2010-12-23T08:00:00.001-05:00

Welcome to a great FLOF final four. Four teams dominated this season from start to finish. From week 5 through week 13, Mimes, Malleus, Drow, and Lagers all appeared in the top 4 or top 5 spots in the weekly rankings. Only Mimes did not make it to this round of the playoffs as the other 3 are joined by Old No. 7, who was that 5th team more often then not and knocked off Mimes in their Wild Card match-up.

Drow (7-6-1 wild card) @ Malleus Maleficarum (11-3 Middle Division Champ)
Malleus put together arguably the most successful campaign in FLOF history. Only 1 other team has ever recorded 11 wins in a season but Drow's 11-2 campaign in 2002 was many seasons before the league expanded to 12 teams. In fact, this was the first season since expansion that any team has reached 10 wins despite playing 1 more game. Malleus did it with the roster churn we've come to expect from Haydn. Thirty-four different players started at least 1 game for Malleus this year -- on par with Malleus' previous years, but 10 more than any other team this year. Although Malleus did not actually play last week, their regular players did not have good games. The offense in particular would have probably posted its worst outing of the season. Drow did play last week and bounced back to a strong game from a poor result in week 14.
EWP gives Malleus a 64% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Drow 20 - Malleus 17 (based on Wednesday numbers)

Old No. 7 (8-5-1 wild card) @ Iron City Lagers (10-4 Left Division Champ)
Lagers were the 4-10 Bushkill Brawlers two years ago and are now the second team to get 10 wins since expansion despite starting 3 different QBs at least 2 games this season (tied with Bill and Malleus) but they may be fading a little as they prepare for their first playoff game. Week 14 they had a pretty average score but they would likely have completely collapsed had they played last week. Lagers are hoping that the non-game is not the beginning of a trend for them as they play one of the hottest teams in FLOF. Old No. 7 put together another solid effort last week as they vanquished Mimes but they may need more out of their offense if they want to win their second playoff game.
EWP gives Lagers a 52% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Lagers 22 - Old No. 7 11

Wild Card Wrap-Up

2010-12-22T11:17:00.001-05:00

When it gets cold and wintery online during the FLOF playoffs, defense reigns supreme. Or at least that's what we learned this week as the two playoff winners did it mostly with defense.

Drow 41 - Ramjets 12
Drow cruised mostly on the strength of their defense. Brent Grimes (20 pts) and Julius Peppers (12) were 1-2 in defensive scoring this week and nearly doubled Ramjets' defensive output by themselves. Both teams' offenses held up their end of the bargains. Ramjets got 20 pts from Cedric Benson and 17 from Schuab. Drow RB Moreno scored essentially nothing but got picked up by Vick who pretended he was both RB and QB for Drow with 34 pts.

Old No. 7 30 - Mimes 18
The team that was more often then not the best in the league this season, ended the season with 3 consecutive bad games and an early playoff exit. Old No. 7's offense sagged but Mimes' defense was worse and Old No. 7 live to fight another day. Neither team really played up to their potential with uneven performances on opposite sides of the ball. Mimes' offense recovered from several weeks of bad results but the usually solid defense just collapsed. Old No. 7's offense was off this week but the defense played really well as a unit and that proved to be the difference.

Toilet Bowl
Bill 41 - Flannel 17
Bill was apparently sandbagging the last 90% of the season. Scoring his best total since week 3, Bill crushed a Flannel team that had been playing pretty well heading into this game but the Flannel defense was even worse then Mimes' this week. Apparently defense wins Toilet Bowls in addition to Wild Card games.

Playoff Predictions

2010-12-17T12:01:00.001-05:00

Looking ahead. EWP thinks we'll see Old No. 7 and Malleus in an all Middle Division FLOF Bowl while Yahoo predicts an all Left Division finals between Drow and Lagers. Fascinating, since EWP and Yahoo often end up picking the same teams.

EWP Predictions
Drow 58% over Ramjets
Old No. 7 56% over Mimes

Malleus 67% over Drow
Old No. 7 51% over Lagers

Yahoo Predictions
Drow 15 - Ramjets 14
Mimes 25 - Old No. 7 18

Drow 25 - Malleus 22
Lagers 15 - Mimes 4

Wild Card/Toilet Bowl Previews

2010-12-16T16:00:00.001-05:00

7-6-1 Murrysville Drow @ 6-7-1 Roger's Ramjets (Right Division Champs)
These are essentially the last two teams to clinch playoff spots. Drow scored lots of points this year (3rd most in FLOF history) but it did not equal as many wins. Drow clinched the last wild card spot in week 13 and ended up only 1/2 game ahead of Rednecks at the end of the year. Ramjets made it in after an improbable season ending. Essentially 3 games back with 3 games to go, Ramjets won two in a row and CAPO lost 2 in a row to set up the winner-take-all week 14 head-to-head that Ramjets won. Neither team has played well against the rest of the playoff field. Drow went 1-5-1 against other playoff teams and Ramjets went 1-3-1. Drow and Ramjets tied 0-0 in week 6. Yahoo thinks the probably loss of Aaron Rodgers will make this game close to a toss-up.
EWP gives Drow a 58% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Drow 15 - Ramjets 14

8-5-1 Old No. 7 @ 9-4-1 Mighty Midtowne Mimes
The 2010 Mimes were one of the best teams in FLOF history. Interestingly they scored more points earlier in the year and actually have played pretty poorly in their last two outings despite winning 3 of their first 7 and 6 of their last 7. Old No. 7 started the season strong, muddled through the middle part, but have finished strong and will be a big challenge for the second highest scoring team in FLOF history. Old No. 7 beat Mimes 32 - 12 in week 7. Yahoo thinks Mimes' defense will persevere.
EWP gives Old No. 7 a 56% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Mimes 25 - 18

2010 Toilet Bowl
3-10-1 Bill's Team @ 4-9-1 Export Flannel
Both teams go to this point after starting the season pretty well. Bill was 3-1-1 after week 5 and sitting atop the competitive Middle Divison. Flannel were 2-1 after week 3 and tied for the Right Division lead after week 6 despite a 2-3-1 record. But Bill lost all 9 games since his week 5 high point and Flannel went 2-6 over their last 8 games. Flannel have been playing the better ball by far lately but Yahoo likes Bill this weekend.
EWP gives Flannel a 61% chance to win
Yahoo likes Bill 13 - 9

Week 14 Rankings

2010-12-15T08:00:00.001-05:00

Heading into the playoffs, this is how I rank the teams. This is not a season long ranking, but still a ranking based on how teams have played in their last 4 contests.

Still the Best
1. Malleus (no change)
Median EWP = 96%, Average EWP = 96%
The only one of the previous top four teams to close out the season at the same pace they played most of the year.

Still Good
2. Old No. 7 (up 3)
Median EWP = 73%, Average EWP = 75%
Team has really bounced back since the week 10 debacle.

3. IC Lagers (no change)
Median EWP = 66%, Average EWP = 69%

4. Drow (down 2)
Median EWP = 70%, Average EWP = 62%
Close the season with their worst game of the year after scoring their best game the week prior.

Top of the Pack
5. Flannel (up 1)
Median EWP = 58%, Average EWP = 56%
Its been a while since Flannel had a horrible game.

6. Mimes (down 2)
Median EWP = 56%, Average EWP = 55%
Mimes' last 2 games were not up to their standards for this season.

7. Rednecks (no change)
Median EWP = 48%, Average EWP = 43%

Bottom of the Pack
8. Ramjets (up 3)
Median EWP = 41%, Average EWP = 46%

9. Hamburglers (up 1)
Median EWP = 38%, Average EWP = 40%

10. Beavers (down 2)
Median EWP = 32%, Average EWP = 42%
Really crashed and burned the last 3 games of the season.

The Cellar
11. CAPO (down 2)
Median EWP = 26%, Average EWP = 31%
Their poor scores down the stretch certainly contributed to their collapse and failure to make the playoffs, but CAPO also had really poor opponent luck in not winning a single game over that time.

Buried Below the Cellar
12. Bill (no change)
Median EWP = 11%, Average EWP = 15%
The offense average 13 pts per game over the last 3 games.

Week 14 Results

2010-12-14T10:18:00.001-05:00

The FLOF regular season is over. Take a quick breath, because the playoffs start this weekend. First here's a look at what the games this weekend meant.

Ramjets 24 - CAPO 15
CAPO lost their last 4 games and Roger won his last 3 for one of the more improbable come-from-behind division championships ever. Ramjets gain a home playoff game against Drow next weekend while CAPO try to figure out what happened this year. David Akers ended up 5th all time in kicker points in a season with 118 but Ramjets kicking in total ended the season 2nd in pts/gm average by about half a point.

Lagers 23 - Drow 0
Lagers cruise to a division title with this win in a very tough division fight. Lagers finish only 1/2 game ahead of Mimes. Lagers also finish with 10 wins -- technically the 2nd time this has happened since expansion and only the 7th time in FLOF history. Lagers also get a bye out this and will face Ramjets if they win or the winner of Old No. 7 and Mimes if Drow beat Ramjets. Drow ended the season as the third highest scoring team in FLOF history at 83.86 pts per game and 3rd highest scoring defense of all time and one of the 3 teams to break the 30 defensive pts/gm average with 30.36. Lagers fell out of the top 5 all time at 80.29.

Mimes 2 - Beavers 0
Mimes barely escape a tie, although, with Old No. 7's lose, it did not really mater. Mimes will get to host a wild card game this upcoming weekend against Old No. 7. Mimes ended up dropping below 90 pts per game but did finish as the second highest scoring team in FLOF history at 89.36 pts / game, 3rd highest scoring offense with 57.00 pts per, and 2nd highest scoring defense (and 1 of 3 to break the 30 pts average) at 36.36. Mimes also ended the season with the 2nd most pts/gm from DBs in a season with 7.71 per player per game.

Malleus 50 - Old No.7 43
That was an exciting game. Both of these teams seem to be peeking as they enter the playoffs. The Malleus win gets them to 11 wins -- only the second time in FLOF history. Drow went 11-2 back in 2002 -- 8 years ago and pre-expansion. Malleus ended the year as the only team in FLOF history to break the 90 pt per game average at 92.29. Malleus also broke the record for the most offensive pts/gm with 58.57 and most defensive pts per game at 33.71 -- 1 of 3 to break the 30 pt/gm average. Malleus also had the 3rd most DB pts/gm in a season at 7.68 per game per player.

Flannel 16 - Hamburglers 0
Flannel finally got a win to show for their decent late run of scores. The win assured them of home field for the Toilet Bowl.

Rednecks 23 - Bill 12
Bill was first in the division after week 5, then lost 9 in a row and will now visit Export for the Toilet Bowl.

Records at Risk This Weekend

2010-12-10T12:01:00.038-05:00

Its been a high-powered year in FLOF and there are some huge records at risk of falling this weekend.

Mimes (92.31) and Malleus (91.23) could be the first teams to ever top 90 pts per game for a season. Drow (86.62) look to be a lock for the 3rd best pts/gm in FLOF history and Lagers (80.92) could end up 5th to stock the top 5 pts/gm power rankings with 4 teams from 2010.

Mimes (59.38) is close to being the first team to top 60 pts/gm of offense in FLOF history. Along with Malleus (57.85), they appear set to take over the top two spots in FLOF history. Lagers (56.08) are currently 4th all time and Drow (55.62) are 7th but less then 1/2 a point from 5th.

Malleus (33.38), Mimes (32.92), and Drow (31.00) are set to be the first 3 teams to top 30 pts / game of defense for a season. Old No. 7 (29.54) and Beavers (28.92) also sit in the top 10 all time.

Ramjet kickers are averaging 10.15 pts/gm -- currently 3rd all time and less then a point-per-game behind the FLOF record.

Interestingly, all these team records are being threatened without any individual player within spitting distance of a record for points or pts/gm in a season. Although, some individual player records have fallen.

Michael Vick's 50 pts in week 10 tied the most points ever (Adrian Peterson, 2007, week 9).

Week 14 Preview

2010-12-09T12:01:00.011-05:00

Last week, one-playoff spot in play, a bye to be had, and home-field in a wild card at stake.

CAPO @ Ramjets
Winner is the 3 seed, Right Division winner and hosts Drow next week in the playoffs. The loser gets ping pong balls for the draft lottery. CAPO picked up their play last week while Ramjets seemed to slide.
EWP gives CAPO a 52% chance to win.
Yahoo predicts CAPO 19 - Ramjets 5

Drow @ Lagers
If Lagers win, they claim the Left Division crown and the 2 seed -- which comes with a bye in round one of the playoffs. Drow will be the 6 seed regardless of the result of this game.
EWP gives Drow a 52% chance to win.
Yahoo predicts Drow 19 - Lagers 16

Beavers @ Mimes
If Lagers lose or tie, Mimes can win the division and 2 seed with a win here. Otherwise, if they win or Old No. 7 lose, they will end up the 4 seed and host Old No. 7 next week.
EWP gives Mimes a 66% chance to win.
Yahoo predicts Mimes 22 -Beavers 16

Malleus @ Old No. 7
If Old No. 7 wins this game, they will likely be the 4 seed and host their first round playoff game. However, if Mimes win but do not win the division, Old No. 7 will remain the 5 seed and visit Mimes in the first round. Malleus have nothing to play for, other then being the 2nd only 11 win team in FLOF history.
EWP gives Malleus a 69% chance to win.
Yahoo predicts Old No. 7 17 - Malleus 16

Rednecks @ Bill
Nothing to see here.
EWP gives Rednecks a 70% chance to win.
Yahoo predicts Rednecks 25 - Bill 11

Flannel @ Hamburglers
Nothing to see here.
EWP gives Flannel a 56% chance to win.
Yahoo predicts Hamburglers 13 - Flannel 9

Week 13 Rankings

2010-12-08T10:00:00.002-05:00

The top 4 teams here are in a class by themselves as they have been most of the season. The difference between them is typically slim or a matter of recent consistency. On that score, Malleus is now king.

1. Malleus (up 1)
Median EWP = 95%, Average EWP = 93%
Malleus have scored at least 94 points during this 4-game stretch and 100+ their last 3.

2. Drow (up 1)
Median EWP = 88%, Average EWP = 79%
The team's 2 best games this year were weeks 11 and 13.

3. Lagers (up 1)
Median EWP = 80%, Average EWP = 79%

4. Mimes (down 3)
Median EWP = 82%, Average EWP = 73%
Last week was only the 2nd time all year that Mimes scored less then 86 pts.

5. Old No. 7 (up 1)
Median EWP = 58%, Average EWP = 54%

6. Flannel (up 2)
Median EWP = 57%, Average EWP = 52%
Flannel D has scored 31+ their last 3 outings but their opponent luck has been terrible over that stretch.

7. Rednecks (down 2)
Median EWP = 52%, Average EWP = 45%
The offense collapsed last week to produce Rednecks' first really bad game this year.

8. Beavers (down 1)
Median EWP = 41%, Average EWP = 51%
Last week was Beavers' worst game in a while as the defense faltered.

9. CAPO (up 1)
Median EWP = 45%, Average EWP = 45%
The offense bounced back last week after a 2 week slide.

10. Hamburglers (up 1)
Median EWP = 40%, Average EWP = 47%
Last weekend was easily their best game of the season.

11. Ramjets (down 2)
Median EWP = 37%, Average EWP = 44%
Last weekend was their first really bad outing in several weeks.

12. Bill (no change)
Median EWP = 4%, Average EWP = 11%
Two consecutive weeks scoring less then 30 total points.

1 Week Left

2010-12-07T12:01:00.001-05:00

Still much to be decided this week with 2 divisions up for grabs, one bye still available, and wild card seeding uncertain. First lets, look at the divisions.

Right
CAPO at Ramjets for the division this weekend. They have identical records after 13 weeks. The winner wins the division and claims the 3 seed heading into the playoffs. The loser goes home. If they tie, CAPO will win the division due to a better head-to-head record. Although Hamburglers could end up tied with them as well in this scenario, CAPO would still have a better head-to-head. This will be the first time that a losing record won a division but not the only time a losing record went to the playoffs. Bill was a 6-7 wild card in 2003.

Left
Its Lagers' division to lose now. A win over Drow gives them the crown and the other bye as the 2 seed. If Lagers lose or tie, then Mimes can claim the division with a win over Beavers. There isn't as much at stake here as the loser is guaranteed a wild card spot.

Middle
Malleus have clinched the division and the #1 seed.

Wild Card spots
Drow are locked into the 6 seed and a playoff visit to the Right Division champ. They can end up with the same record as some or all of the rest of the wild cards but win none of the possible tie-breakers.

Old No. 7 can end up as the 4 or 5 seed, which is the difference between a home or road game against either Lagers or Mimes for their first playoff game. A win or Mime loss would give Old No. 7 the 4 seed.

Whichever of Lagers or Mimes who fail to win the Left Division will be either the 4 or 5 seed and face Old No. 7. Lagers would end up the 4 seed if Old No. 7 lose this weekend. Mimes would be the 4 seed if they win this weekend or Old No. 7 lose.

Week 13 Review

2010-12-07T09:20:00.001-05:00

Suddenly, a chaotic season comes into focus. We now know all but one team that will be playoff bound and that last slot has only 2 contestants. There is still some uncertainty with seedings including one bye left to be claimed.

Left
Drow 41 - Mimes 0
Lagers 36 - Beavers 18
Drow put together the best game of their season and Mimes put together their worst so far. The win plus Rednecks' loss clinches a playoff spot for Drow. Lagers' win combined with Mimes' loss puts Lagers back on top in the Division. Beavers slim chances for a playoff berth were crushed in their loss.

Middle
Malleus, Old No. 7 win
Rednecks, Bill lose
Malleus finally clinch the division with another win and also clinch the #1 seed with Mimes' loss. Old No. 7 does clinch a wild card with their win. Rednecks' loss combined with Drow's win bumps Rednecks from the postseason. Bill has clinched a spot in the Toilet Bowl the year after winning the FLOF Bowl.

Right
Ramjets, Hamburglers win
CAPO, Flannel lose
CAPO succumbed to Tom Brady et. al. and must now beat or tie Ramjets next week to finally secure the division and a playoff spot. Ramjets beat Bill as expected and gain a chance to beat CAPO for the division. Hamburglers' win puts them a half game behind CAPO and Ramjets but they can't win the division and thus are eliminated from the playoffs. Flannel's loss assures them a spot in the Toilet Bowl.

Week 13 Preview

2010-12-02T12:01:00.002-05:00

Mimes @ Drow
Drow may be getting desperate with Rednecks breathing down their neck for the last wild card spot. A Mimes win and Lager loss would clinch the title for Mimes. A Drow win plus Redneck loss would clinch a wild card spot for Drow.
EWP gives Mimes a 54% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Drow 23 - Mimes 14

Lagers @ Beavers
With one eye on the happenings in Murrysville, Lagers can't take Beavers lightly or they risk losing any chance to catch Mimes. Beavers are desperate as they need to win this weekend plus a Drow loss and either a loss from Old No. 7 or a loss or tie from Rednecks.
EWP gives Lagers a 64% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Beavers 12 - Lagers 11

CAPO @ Malleus
The winner of this game wins a division title. The loser could still clinch their division if their top competition also lose this weekend (Ramjets and Hamburglers for CAPO; Old No. 7 for Malleus). For Malleus this is all about byes, for CAPO its his only way to the playoffs.
EWP gives Malleus a 74% chance to win
Yahoo predicts CAPO 17 - Malleus 13

Hamburglers @ Rednecks
Rednecks can take control of their wild card hopes with a win and Drow loss. Hamburglers need a win and CAPO loss to stay in the hunt for a division title and playoff berth. A loss ends Hamburglers' season. A loss and wins by Drow and Old No. 7 would end Rednecks' playoff hopes.
EWP gives Rednecks a 61% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Rednecks 16 - Hamburglers 9

Flannel @ Old No. 7
Old No. 7 need 1 more win or a losses by Beavers and Rednecks to clinch a playoff spot. Flannel have nothing to play for but pride.
EWP gives Old No. 7 a 54% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Old No. 7 30 - Flannel 10

Ramjets @ Bill
If Malleus beat CAPO as expected, a Ramjet win here sets up a showdown for the division in week 14.
EWP gives Ramjets a 64% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Bill 20 - Ramjets 17

Week 12 Rankings

2010-12-01T12:01:00.002-05:00

1. Mimes (no change)
Median EWP = .91, Average EWP = .88
Top offense in FLOF over the last 4 games.

2. Malleus (up 2)
Median EWP = .91, Average EWP = .75
When we throw away week 9's stumble -- which we will do next week -- Malleus could jump up to the top spot. Top defense in FLOF over the last 4 games.

3. Drow (down 1)
Median EWP = .85, Average EWP = .77

4. Lagers (down 1)
Median EWP = .81, Average EWP = .79
Really not much difference between Drow and Lagers.

5. Rednecks (no change)
Median EWP = .59, Average EWP = .57
The drop between the top 4 and everyone else is the 10-20 pts of offense that tends to separate these teams on any given weekend.

6. Old No. 7 (up 1)
Median EWP = .55, Average EWP = .53

7. Beavers (down 1)
Median EWP = .48, Average EWP = .57

8. Flannel (up 3)
Median EWP = .46, Average EWP = .46
After scoring less then 70 pts for 8 consecutive weeks, Flannel have now scored above 80 their last 2 weeks.

9. Ramjets (down 1)
Median EWP = .37, Average EWP = .41
Saved their best game of the year for last weekend.

10. CAPO (down 1)
Median EWP = .33, Average EWP = .39

11. Hamburglers (down 1)
Median EWP = .37, Average EWP = .33

12. Bill (no change)
Median EWP = .09, Average EWP = .14
Worst offense by far in FLOF over the last 4 games. The top 4 teams in the league are typically scoring twice as many points as Bill on a given weekend.

2 Weeks Left

2010-11-30T18:00:00.002-05:00

Malleus, 9-3, current division leader, 1 seed
Also guaranteed a wild card spot, Malleus can clinch the division title with a win or loss by Old No. 7. Malleus would also become the first 10 win team in FLOF since 2004 -- before expansion to 12 teams.
Malleus are heavily favored by EWP in their last 2 games.

Mimes, 8-3-1, current division leader, 2 seed
Guaranteed at least a wild card spot, Mimes are fighting to retain the division title and first round bye that would go with it. But Lagers are only 1/2 game back so Mimes need a win and Lagers loss this weekend to clinch the title.
Mimes are mildly favored against Drow this weekend and heavily favored for their last game by EWP.

CAPO, 5-6-1, current division leader, 3 seed
CAPO still need a win to clinch the division title or loses from Ramjets and Hamburglers. CAPO will be the 3 seed or they will be home watching as they have no chance to be a wild card.
CAPO are big underdogs this weekend against Malleus and mild underdogs next week against Ramjets which would result in CAPO missing the playoffs.

Lagers, 8-4, current wild card, 4 seed
Still only a half game behind Mimes for the division, Lagers would need help as they do not play Mimes again this year. However, Lagers have already clinched a wild card spot -- but it could be any of those wild card spots.
Lagers are big favorites this weekend but are essentially even against Drow in week 14.

Old No.7 7-4-1, current wild card, 5 seed
If Old No. 7 win and Malleus lose this upcoming weekend, it would set up a winner takes the division match-up the last week of the season. If Old No. 7 wins this weekend or Rednecks and Beavers lose, the worst they could do is a wild card.
Old No. 7 are mild favorites this weekend and big underdogs against Malleus week 14.

Drow 6-5-1, current wild card, 6 seed
Drow control their own destiny but have a tough road ahead against two of the best teams in the league. If Drow win out and both Mimes and Lagers lose their last 2, Drow would win the division. If Drow win out but either Mimes or Lagers win a game from here on, Drow would be one of the wild cards. If Drow win one more and Rednecks lose one more the rest of the way, Drow are in. If Drow lose their last 2 they can still get in if Rednecks fail to win any of their last 2 and Beavers split their last 2.
Drow are mild underdogs this weekend against Mimes and essentially even against Lagers to end the season.

Rednecks 6-6
Now officially eliminated from contention for the division, Rednecks focus on their path to the wild card. The easiest way in is to leapfrog Drow by winning one more game over their last 2 and keep Beavers behind by winning as many or more then Beavers. Rednecks could also catch Old No. 7 with 2 wins and 2 loses from the whiskey bottle.
Rednecks are big favorites against the two worst teams in the league to close the season which makes them EWP's favorite to be the last wild card.

Beavers 5-6-1
Now out of the running for the division title, Beavers remain only 1 game out of a wild card spot. Their best bet would be to win 2, have Drow lose 2, and have Rednecks lose 2 or lose 1 and tie 1. Beavers generally must leapfrog Drow and not tie them as they lost 2 to Drow earlier. They beat Rednecks and could beat them in a tie. Beavers could end up tied with Old No. 7 for the final wild card spot but that would get tricky. If Drow were the 5th seed, Old No. 7 would win that tie-breaker. If Rednecks were the 5 seed, it could come down to Power rankings.
Beavers are big underdogs as they end the season against Lagers and Mimes.

Ramjets 4-7-1
Ramjets have 2 slim chances to get into the playoffs. Most obviously, they can win the Right Division with 2 wins and 2 CAPO losses. CAPO holds all the tie-breakers needed, so Ramjets must leap-frog CAPO, not tie them. However, Ramjets hold a tie-breaker edge over current last wild card Drow and could end the season tied with them if Drow lose 2, Ramjets win 2 plus Rednecks lose 2 and Beavers lose 2. If Drow, Ramjets, and Beavers all end up tied Drow would move on.
Ramjets are a big favorite this weekend over Bill and would be a mild favorite over CAPO to close the season and potentially win the division.

Hamburglers 4-8
No chance for a wild card, but they have a slim hope for the division. If Ramjets and CAPO lose this upcoming weekend, then Ramjets beat CAPO in 2 weeks and Hamburglers win out, they will end up 1/2 game ahead of both Ramjets and CAPO.
Hamburglers are big underdogs this weekend but only mild underdogs against Flannel to close out the season.

Flannel 3-8-1
Flannel are eliminated form all playoff contention with their loss. The best they could do is tie CAPO or CAPO and Ramjets but would lose all tie-breakers. They are 3 games behind the last wild card spot.

Bill's Team 3-8-1
Bill is also out of all playoff hopes as they fall to 3 games behind the last wild card spot.

Predictions:
IF (big, huge if) EWP correctly predicts the last 2 weeks of the season, this is how it will look at the end:

1. Malleus, 11-3
2. Mimes, 10-3-1
3. Ramjets, 6-7-1
4. Lagers, 9-5
5. Old No. 7, 8-5-1
6. Rednecks, 8-6

7. Drow, 7-6-1
8. Beavers, 5-8-1
9. CAPO, 5-8-1
10. Flannel, 4-9-1
11. Hamburglers, 4-10
12. Bill, 3-10-1

Byes: Malleus, Mimes
Rednecks @ Ramjets
Old No. 7 @ Lagers

Week 12 Review

2010-11-30T09:44:00.001-05:00

Right Division
Hamburglers 30 - CAPO 27
Ramjets 24 - Flannel 19
Huge, Monday night, victory by Hamburglers over offensively limited CAPO keeps the Right Division in play. Flannel played well for the 2nd week in a row but lost to Ramjets who put together their best game of the year.

Left Division
Mimes, Lagers win
Drow, Beavers lose
Mimes continue to roll and Lagers bounce back from an above average score last week. Meanwhile, Beavers and Drow both stumbled to loses with poor scores.

Middle Division
Malleus, Old No. 7 win
Rednecks, Bill lose
Malleus has been unstoppable the last 2 weeks. Old No. 7 edged Drow on the strength of their defense this week despite an average result. Rednecks' typically average score wasn't good enough against Lagers this week. Bill scored only 3 offensive points in one of the worst efforts all season.

Week 12 Preview

2010-11-25T08:00:00.003-05:00

Malleus @ Beavers

Beavers have won two in a row to get back to .500 and position themselves for a run at a wild card spot but a loss would put them behind the 8-ball. Malleus have won 8 of their last 9 and can clinch a division title with a win plus losses from Old No. 7 and Rednecks.

EWP gives Malleus a 58% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Malleus 14 - Beavers 11

Old No. 7 @ Drow

This game is crucial for both teams as they are currently tied for the last 2 wild card spots. The loser's playoff hopes will be much more tenuous and the winner will gain a smidgen of cushion and extend their hopes for a division championship.

EWP gives Drow a 61% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Drow 33 - Old No.7 16

Rednecks @ Lagers

A Lager win coupled with a Beaver loss, will all but guarantee Lagers at least a wild card spot. Rednecks can grab hold of a wild card spot -- at least for a week -- with a win.

EWP gives Lagers a 60% chance to win
Yahoo predicts ICL 23 - Rednecks 12

Hamburglers @ CAPO

CAPO's magic number is 1. One more win or one more loss by all three of their division rivals gives CAPO the division. CAPO is 4-0 inside the division so far and will win any tie-breaker for the division title. Hamburglers could still win the division is they won out and CAPO lost their last 3 plus lots of help from Ramjets and Flannel.

EWP gives CAPO a 53% chance to win
Yahoo predicts CAPO 15 - Hamburglers 12

Ramjets @ Flannel

If CAPO lose this week, one of these teams will have a chance to catch them for the divison title. The loser will be eliminated from any playoff contention.

EWP gives Ramjets a 54% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Ramjets 14 - Flannel 11

Bill @ Mimes

Talk about teams headed in opposite directions. A win would put Mimes in very good shape from a playoff standpoint but the division will likely come down to the wire regardless of the results of this week's games.

EWP gives Mimes a 84% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Mimes 27 - Bill 10

Week 11 Rankings

2010-11-24T09:00:00.001-05:00

As we head down the home stretch, the good teams seem to be upping their game and the bad teams are collapsing and fewer and fewer teams are in that middle ground.

The Elite

1. Mimes (no change)

medEWP = 88%, avgEWP = 87%, variance = 9%

Mimes keep chugging along at season-long historic levels. They currently have the best Power, oPower, and dPower ever in FLOF. Check it out.

2. Drow (no change)

medEWP = 85%, avgEWP = 70%, variance = 40%

Despite the numbers, Drow are 2-2 over their last 4 games. Drow's variance is due to week 8's collapse, so they could bump up next week.

3. Lagers (up 1)

medEWP = 80%, avgEWP = 78%, variance = 14%

Lagers leap-frog Malleus because their week 7 bad score is now off the radar, but really, the difference between these these top 4 teams is pretty slight other then Mimes' other=worldly consistency.

4. Malleus (down 1)

medEWP = 79%, avgEWP = 69%, variance = 36%

These top 4 teams have all scored 60+ points of offense in 3 of their last 4 games. Malleus have scored 70+ in their last 2.

The Contenders

5. Rednecks (up 1)

medEWP = 60%, avgEWP = 58%, variance = 8%

Their offense is a step down from the teams in the top 4, but its also a step up from the teams below them. Offense and consistency is the reason that Rednecks are a top contender outside the top 4 right now.

6. Beavers (up 2)

medEWP = 54%, avgEWP = 62%, variance = 22%

Beavers seem to be hitting their stride as we hit the last 3 games. The offense and defense have both shown well lately.

7. Old No. 7 (no change)

medEWP = 58%, avgEWP = 54%, variance = 38%

The offense came back to life this last weekend and the defense reverted to its recently strong efforts. The offense had been dormant for the 3 weeks prior.

The Also-Rans

8. Ramjets (up 1)

medEWP = 37%, avgEWP = 36%, variance = 23%

Ramjets' last 2 games have not been horrible, but they have not been great either. Both the offense and defense need to step up.

9. CAPO (down 4)

medEWP = 60%, avgEWP = 58%, variance = 8%

CAPO have scored 40 or fewer offensive points 3 times over the last 4 games on offense. Those 93 points 2 weeks ago looks like an aberration.

10. Hamburglers (no change)

medEWP = 29%, avgEWP = 29%, variance = 11%

Still consistent. Still not good.

11. Flannel (no change)

medEWP = 24%, avgEWP = 32%, variance = 24%

Generally not good, Flannel remain dangerous because they actually have a good offense that can score. The offense has scored 49, 50, and 51 over the last 3 games but the defense hampered them for 2 of those efforts.

12. Bill (no change)

medEWP = 20%, avgEWP = 21%, variance = 15%

The worst defense in the league is keeping a mediocre offense in the basement.

Week 11 Update

2010-11-23T11:40:00.001-05:00

Everyone in the Left beat everyone in the Right, so not much changed for those teams. In the Middle Division, Malleus' offense helped it avoid a 0-0 tie with Rednecks and get Haydn just that bit closer to a Division title. Old No. 7 thumped Bill and leap-frogged Rednecks in the standings, but still 2 games behind Malleus.

Here's the current playoff situation with 3 game to go, plus updated predictions.

1. Malleus 8-3, division leader, #1 seed
Now assured of a winning record and probably assured a playoff spot... but I don't have time to work that out for sure. A win and loses by Old No.7 and Rednecks would give Malleus the division title.
Prediction: 10-4, division winner, #1 seed

2. Mimes 7-3-1, division leader, #2 seed
Assured of a winning record as well, but assured of nothing else after that. Beavers are only 2 games behind them and are the 4th team in the division. Have a relatively easy game this week before 2 straight in-division to close out the year.
Prediction: 9-4-1, division winner, #2 seed

3. CAPO 5-5-1, division leader, #3 seed
Retain their 2-game lead on Flannel and Ramjets. A win plus Flannel defeat of Ramjets would clinch the title for CAPO. Ramjets are a much bigger problem for CAPO given their head-to-head.
Prediction: 6-6-2, division winner, #3 seed

4. Lagers 7-4, wild card, #4 seed
Lagers are only 1/2 game behind Mimes but will need help to pass them as they are done playing for the year. They will also need to keep winning to stay a wild card with Rednecks and Beavers still hunting for wild card spots.
Prediction: 9-5, wild card, #4 seed

5. Old No. 7 6-4-1, wild card, #5 seed
If they can pick up a game on Malleus over the next 2 weeks, they could play for the Division in a season finale match-up. If they lose too many between now and then they could be playing just to stay in a wild card spot.
Prediction: 7-5-2, wild card, #5 seed (assumes 3-way tie with Rednecks)

6. Drow 6-4-1, wild card #6 seed
Hold their fate in their own hands with 3 consecutive games against Old No. 7, Lagers, then Mimes. They probably need to win more of those then they lose to stay a wild card but their chances for a division win is hampered by previous loses to Lagers and Mimes.
Prediction: 7-5-2, wild card, #6 seed (assumes victory over Old No. 7)

7. Rednecks 6-5, 1/2 game out of wild card
Easily the biggest threat to poach a wild card from one of the teams above them, especially Old No. 7 or Drow. But they only have 1 game against another wild card contender and bad tie-breakers so they will need the teams above them to stumble.
Prediction: 8-6, out by tie-breaker

8. Beavers 5-5-1, 1 game out of wild card
Beavers still have a shot at the Division title and are in the thick of the wild card fight but have a crazy hard schedule against the top 3 records in FLOF.
Prediction: 6-7-1, 1.5 games out of wild card

9. Flannel 3-7-1, 2.5 games behind CAPO
I suspect Flannel have no chance to get a wild card spot, but they could still win the division if CAPO lose out and Flannel win out. They can't afford a tie with CAPO as they lost both meetings between them.
Prediction: 4-8-2, 2 games behind CAPO

10. Ramjets, 3-7-1, 2.5 games behind CAPO
Have already lost to both CAPO and Flannel earlier this year, but get to try again starting this week with Flannel. That said, they also need CAPO to lose at least 2 of their last 3 for any playoff hopes.
Prediction: 4-8-2, 2 games behind CAPO

11. Bill, 3-7-1, 3 games out of wild card
Already eliminated from contention in their division, Bill has only the slimmest hopes for a wild card spot... mostly cause I don't have time to prove they do not have hopes.
Prediction: 4-9-1, toilet bowl visitor

12. Hamburglers 3-8, 3 games behind CAPO
Eliminated from wild card contention, Hamburglers may not have any chance at the division either but I can't figure it out quickly. A loss this week against CAPO will put Hamburglers out of their misery.
Prediction: 4-9-1, toilet bowl host (due to win over Bill)

Week 11 Preview

2010-11-19T09:30:00.001-05:00

Its all about wins and loses and playoffs right now. Last year, two teams got hot at the end of the year and Bill beat Ramjets in a FLOF Bowl I certainly wasn't predicting. This year looks like it could be just as crazy to the end. With only 4 games left, no one has guaranteed either a winning or losing record yet.

Rednecks @ Malleus
Rednecks beat Malleus earlier this season, so a win here would put them in first in the division despite what would be the same record as Malleus. However, a loss for Rednecks would put their wild card spot in jeopardy given how fiercely those 3 spots will be contested. On the other hand, a win for Malleus would put them very close to clinching their division title. Rednecks' kicker scored 0 last night and Yahoo notes that as a big problem.
EWP gives Malleus a 58% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Malleus 11 - Rednecks 0

Beavers @ CAPO
This looks to be the closest game from EWP's perspective and there is a lot at stake. CAPO has his division in hand right now, but loses outside the division have been an issue for CAPO all year. Beavers are the last of the teams that I would give a realistic shot at a wild card spot but they need every win they can get. Beavers D is off to a great start after Peppers' 18 pt game last night and CAPO still doesn't have a RB.
EWP gives CAPO a 55% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Beavers 25 - CAPO 7

Bill @ Old No. 7
Old No. 7 really does have a shot at a wild card spot, but they can't afford to lose a game to Bill if they want me to say that again next week. Yahoo actually predicts that CJ2K will score 20 pts this week.
EWP gives Old No. 7 a 72% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Old No. 7 28 - Bill 20

Drow @ Flannel
Flannel are hanging on to a division hope by the skin of their teeth. A loss and CAPO win means they can only get in by a wild card. Drow are also fighting for a playoff birth and are 1 game behind division leading Mimes and 1/2 game out of a wild card spot.
EWP gives Drow a 77% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Drow 22 - Flannel 8

Mimes @ Ramjets
Ramjets mostly need to not lose ground to CAPO this week, but an upset victory here would be great. Mimes have 2 teams within 1 game of their division lead and can't take anything for granted.
EWP gives Mimes a 79% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Mimes 23 - Ramjets 15

Lagers @ Hamburglers
Ham are all but out of playoff contention but Lagers are right in the thick of a mean wild card battle and only 1/2 game behind division leading Mimes.
EWP gives Lagers a 73% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Lagers 14 - Hamburglers 8

4-Games Left

2010-11-18T08:00:00.001-05:00

With four games left, its as tight as ever in most division and certainly in the wild card chase, but could it be all but over in the Right?

Malleus, currently division leader and 1 seed
A tough schedule ahead for Malleus -- no cupcakes left -- starting with a huge game against Rednecks this upcoming weekend. A win there will not clinch anything, but would certainly make things easier.
prediction: 9-4-1, division win, 1 seed

Mimes, currently division leader and 2 seed
The schedule helps as Mimes play 2 of the worst teams in the league before playing Drow in 3 weeks and ending the season against Beavers.
prediction: 9-4-1, division win, 2 seed (lost to Malleus earlier)

CAPO, currently division leader and 3 seed
CAPO have built up a 2 game lead over Flannel and Ramjets. So while they will not be able to clinch anything this week, it may not be much longer now.
prediction: 7-5-2, division win, 3 seed

Rednecks, currently wild card and 4 seed
The next 2 weeks are crucial for Rednecks. This weekend they play Malleus with a chance to tie them at the top of the division. The next week, they play Lagers as both teams struggle to retain wild card possibilities. After that Rednecks have some easier games.
prediction: 8-5-1, wild card, 5 seed (assuming loss to Lagers)

Lagers, currently wild card and 5 seed
They close the season with 3 games against possible wild card teams including including Rednecks and Drow. But they do not play the Mimes again this year, so they'll have to rely on others if they want to win the division.
prediction: 8-5-1, wild card, 4 seed

Old No. 7, currently wild card and 6 seed
Despite their recent issues, Old No. 7 have a real shot at a playoff spot partially because of their very good record against everyone else in playoff contention. The biggest game of their remaining season could be their meeting with Drow in 2 weeks.
prediction: 7-6-1, 1/2 game out of wild card

Drow, currently out of playoffs on tie-break
Drow close out the season with 3 consecutive games against playoff hopefuls. But first, they have to beat Flannel this upcoming weekend. Otherwise, they will have a hill to climb especially given their poor record against other playoff hopefuls so far.
prediction: 7-5-2, wild card, 6 seed

Beavers, currently 1 game out of wild card
Beavers have a hard schedule as they face 3 division leaders in their last 4 games plus Lagers and the games should get harder each week according to EWP at least.
prediction: 5-7-2, 2 games out of wild card

Flannel, currently 2 games out of division and wild card

Have already lost 2 games against CAPO which hurts and the rest of their schedule includes 2 tough non-division games.

prediction: 4-8-2, 3 games out of division and wild card

Ramjets, currently 2 games out of division and wild card
If Ramjets can keep pace after this weekend, they will have a chance to make a run. In their last 3 games they play both Flannel and CAPO and have a much easier week 13 non-division game. They are likely the biggest competitor for CAPO.
prediction: 4-8-2, 3 games out of division and wild card

Bill, currently 2 games out of wild card
A loss or Malleus win this weekend puts the division title officially out of reach.
prediction: 4-9-1, 3.5 games out of wild card

Hamburglers, currently 2.5 games out of division and wild card
A loss and CAPO win would remove Hamburglers from contention for their division crown but if they can pick up ground in their non-division games they have games against CAPO and Flannel left on their slate to try for a late season push.
prediction: 4-9-1, 3.5 games out of division and wild card

Week 10 Rankings

2010-11-17T08:00:00.001-05:00

We're 3/4 of the way through the season and I feel like we still have most of a season left to play. With 4 games left, everyone will play 2 division games and 2 games outside their division. Everyone is mathematically still in the hunt for a playoff spot and no one has clinched even a playoff appearance yet. For the rankings, I currently see 3 big strata of teams...

Sky-high

1. Mimes (no change)

medEWP = 89%, avgEWP = 88%, variance = 8%

The worst offensive game Mimes have had over the last 4 games? 60 pts. The defense is also doing pretty darn well -- toping 30 pts twice. The big difference between the Mimes and everyone else is that they seem incapable of scoring badly.

2. Drow (no change)

medEWP = 86%, avgEWP = 69%, variance = 39%

The offense has scored 60 or more in 3 of their last 4. The defense has also played well, pretty much on par with Mimes' despite its fail last week.

3. Malleus (no change)

medEWP = 80%, avgEWP = 68%, variance = 35%

Malleus bounced back from their generalized collapse last week. The defense got back to the league median while the offense scored 70 for the first time since week 3.

4. Lagers (up 1)

medEWP = 82%, avgEWP = 66%, variance = 38%

As many expected, Old No. 7 fell away and Lagers have rejoined the elite. They have perhaps the 2nd best offense in FLOF over the last 4 games and scored 101 pts this week.

Ground Level

5. CAPO (up 2)

medEWP = 62%, avgEWP = 57%, variance = 32%

CAPO proved last weekend that they can still score with anyone. However, they've also proven that they can not do it consistently having scored less then 70 the 2 weeks prior to this weekend's 93.

6. Rednecks (no change)

medEWP = 61%, avgEWP = 58%, variance = 9%

Rednecks retain the best offense outside the top tier -- good enough to be a consistent week-to-week threat but rarely good enough to trounce anyone. That said, only Mimes' have a higher worst score over the last 4 weeks.

7. Old No. 7 (down 3)

medEWP = 59%, avgEWP = 50%, variance = 33%

The defense was lights out from weeks 4 to 9 and that masked an offense that hasn't scored 50 pts since week 3. But the offense hasn't even scored 40 in their last 3 games and this last weekend the defense collapsed.

8. Beavers (no change)

medEWP = 49%, avgEWP = 50%, variance = 6%

Beavers have been the consistently average team in FLOF over the last 4 games -- even more so then Rednecks. Unfortunately they have been a tick worse then Rednecks, particularly on offense.

Subterranean

9. Ramjets (no change)

medEWP = 29%, avgEWP = 33%, variance = 23%

The offense has been the problem all year for Ramjets. The defense has been about average over the last 4 games, but the offense scored 50 pts this weekend for only the second time all year.

10. Hamburglers (up 1)

medEWP = 27%, avgEWP = 29%, variance = 10%

A league average offense has kept Hamburglers from completely tanking too many games this year but the defense has been worse then all but the 2 teams below them in these rankings over the last 4 games.

11. Flannel (down 1)

medEWP = 24%, avgEWP = 22%, variance = 5%

Flannel's last two games have been almost exactly the same: 50-51 offensive points and 8 defensive points. The offense has actually been pretty good over their last 4 games but the defense has undermined the team by scoring 8 points in 3 of their last 4 outings.

12. Bill (no change)

medEWP = 9%, avgEWP = 12%, variance = 13%

Bill has scored less then 50 points in 3 of their last 4 games. 49 points has an expected win percentage of 11%. The offense and defense have been almost equally bad.

Week 10 Review

2010-11-16T09:54:00.002-05:00

The cream generally rose to the top this week as better teams and teams with better records generally beat lesser teams, creating separation in most places.

Left Division
Mimes, Lagers, and Beavers won
Drow ~~tied~~ lost
This was the exception to the idea that a team would gain separation as everyone won but Drow -- who were tied to first and so fell back to ~~1/2~~ 1 game out. That said, Beavers are 2 games behind Mimes with 4 to play and 2 other teams between them and a division title that looks unlikely at best. However, Beavers are only 1 game behind Drow for the last wild card teams.

Middle Division
Malleus 58 - Bill 10
Rednecks 60 - Old No7 21
Rednecks have won 2 in a row and will play for a chance to catch Malleus at the top of the Division next week. Meanwhile, Old No. 7 collapsed this week and seem to be falling again in what has been in up-and-down year. Malleus predictably dominated a Bill team that is on the verge of being mathematically eliminated from the division race.

Right Division
CAPO ~~tied~~ won
Flannel, Ramjets, Hamburglers lost
Michael Vick singlehandedly scored CAPO a ~~tie~~ win this week after scoring a FLOF record-tieing 50 pts (Adrian Peterson, 2007). The win extends CAPO's division lead to 2 games over Flannel and Ramjets pushes Hamburglers to the edge of contention after all three lost.

Week 10 Preview

2010-11-12T10:00:00.001-05:00

After this week, every team will have 4 games left -- 2 inside their division and 2 outside. The Middle Division gets to battle among themselves for the next two weeks while the Left Division hopes to prey on the Right.

Old No. 7 @ Rednecks
Both teams won last week to close up on Malleus and hope to pounce on a division title if Malleus stumble down the stretch. If not, both are also in contention for a wild card spot. This is the first of 3 consecutive difficult games Rednecks have on their schedule before they close out the season against a couple weaker teams. Since Yahoo already knows Thursday's scores, it knows that Turner did nothing and Flacco heard me call him out and responded with a big game.
EWP gives Old No. 7 a 56% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Rednecks 29 - Old No.7 3

Malleus @ Bill

Bill is in free fall, having lost 4 in a row while scoring no more then 62 total points. Malleus fell apart last week to end a 6 game winning streak that saw them score no fewer then 84 total points. Malleus added a brand new starting QB and RB to their roster in the days following their loss last week and must win to keep a gap between them and their pursuers this week. Yahoo thinks Bill can keep this close.

EWP gives Malleus a 78% chance to win

Yahoo predicts Malleus 18 - Bill 17

Flannel @ Beavers
Both teams are on the verge of losing their playoff chance this season. Flannel may be in an easier situation as their best chance will be to win a weak division as opposed to Beaver trying to overtake a strong field of wild cards. Either way, a lose would be very bad for either team.
EWP gives Beavers a 60% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Beavers 18 - Flannel 7

CAPO @ Drow
CAPO's offense in particular has stumbled these last 2 weeks and they should consider themselves lucky to still be in the drivers' seat in the Right Division. CAPO has not won a game outside their division this season and have 3 teams with in 1.5 games of their division lead. Drow are in the middle of a scrum of 3 teams within 1/2 game at the top of the Left Division and close out their season with 3 games against top teams. Both teams must do without their big name QBs as Brees and Rodgers sit on byes.
EWP gives Drow a 65% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Drow 32 - CAPO 14

Ramjets @ Lagers
Ramjets are 1 game behind CAPO and I figure to be their closest competition down the stretch. Lagers are a half game behind 2 teams at the top of the Left. Ramjets have been erratic in their scoring over the last several weeks while Lagers have been consistently good lately (if you forget about that bad week 7 outing).
EWP gives Lagers a 61% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Lagers 18 - Ramjets 8

Hamburglers @ Mimes
These have been two of the most consistent teams this season. That said, Hamburlgers have scored more then 62 points only once this season while Mimes have scored less then 86 only once. Hamburglers' one "big" game saw them score 71 while Mimes' one "bad" game saw them score 70. Yet, Mimes remain in a very tight race at the top of the Left Division and Hamburglers are not out of contention for a division title in the Right. Mimes must do without their top flight QB as Rivers sits on his bye.
EWP gives Mimes a 79% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Hamburglers 26 - Mimes 10

Predictions after Week 9

2010-11-11T08:00:00.034-05:00

No predicted changes in who gets in after this week's games, but some shuffling among the wild cards.

Left
1. Mimes now 5-3-1; prediction 8-4-2, division, 2 seed
2. Drow now 5-3-1; prediction 8-5-1, wild card, 4 seed
3. Lagers now 5-4; prediction 8-6, wild card, 6 seed
4. Beavers now 3-5-1; prediction 5-8-1

Middle
1. Malleus now 6-3; prediction 9-5, division, 1 seed
2. Old No. 7 now 5-3-1; prediction 8-5-1, wild card, 5 seed (lose to Drow)
3. Rednecks now 5-4; prediction 7-6-1, just out
4. Bill now 3-5-1; prediction 4-8-2, toilet bowl

Right
1. CAPO now 4-4-1; prediction 6-6-2, division, 3 seed
2. Ramjets now 3-5-1; prediction 5-7-2
3. Flannel now 3-5-1; prediction 5-8-1
4. Hamburglers now 3-6; prediction 4-9-1, toilet bowl

Wild Card Round:
Lagers beat CAPO
Drow beat Old No. 7

Playoff Round:
Mimes beat Lagers
Drow beat Malleus

FLOF Bowl:
Mimes beat Drow

Week 9 Rankings

2010-11-10T08:00:00.069-05:00

I'm seeing more stratification in my rankings this week and some shake-up at the top as we get a new #1 who looks very familiar and and old favorite continues to climb.

Big Dogs
1. Mimes (up 1)
median EWP = 82%, avg EWP = 77%, variance = 22%, luck = -0.6 wins
Mimes have scored more points every week since their "low point" scoring 70 in week 6. Powered by the best offense in FLOF over the last 4 weeks and the 2nd best defense.

2. Drow (up 1)
median EWP = 88%, avg EWP = 70%, variance = 40%, luck = -0.3wins
Drow bounced back from their terrible week 9. The offense has been inconsistent but shown the potential for big scores lately while the defense continues to be one of the best in the league.

3. Malleus (down 2)
median EWP = 81%, avg EWP = 69%, variance = 35%, luck = +0.3 wins
The wheels came off the offense last week. But acquiring Tom Brady should help right the ship and keep this team from falling any farther. Ordering these top 3 teams was really an exercise in nit-picking.

Scrappy Dogs
4. Old No. 7 (up 1)
median EWP = 67%, avg EWP = 67%, variance = 11%, luck = -0.2 wins
I'd love to say that this team was going to be hunting the Big Dogs next, but the offense has failed two weeks in a row now and the defense has been propping it up. Does the offense get healthy or does the defense drop off first?

5. Lagers (down 1)
median EWP = 71%, avg EWP = 61%, variance = 35%, luck = -0.4 wins
I think Lagers are more capable of jumping up in weight class then Old No. 7. Their offense has been as good as anyone's the last couple of weeks. Their week 7 fail is keeping their numbers down and their average defense keeping them from greatness.

Just Dogs
6. Rednecks (up 1)
median EWP = 55%, avg EWP = 55%, variance = 11%, luck = -0.2 wins
Rednecks continue to hover right above average in all facets of their game. But I expect this to be their nadir after trading Brady away.

7. CAPO (down 1)
median EWP = 50%, avg EWP = 50%, variance = 27%, luck = +0.0 wins
CAPO and Ramjets have been wildly inconsistent over the last 4 games. There are teams with higher variance scores, but mostly due to 1 big outlier while CAPO seems capable of any score on any weekend -- both good and bad.

8. Beavers (up 1)
median EWP = 47%, avg EWP = 42%, variance = 19%, luck = +0.8 wins
Beavers' last two games have been better then their 2 previous, but we're talking about the difference between above average and below average scores.

9. Ramjets (down 1)
median EWP = 44%, avg EWP = 44%, variance = 34%, luck = -0.3 wins
The offense is vacillating back and forth between average and bad. This week the defense fell apart as well. Ramjets could easily fall back into the bottom grouping here in the rankings unless the defense rebounds of the offense stabilizes somewhere above bad.

Small, Barky Dogs
10. Flannel (up 1)
median EWP = 24%, avg EWP = 26%, variance = 12%, luck = +0.5 wins
After a wild first couple weeks, Flannel have settled in as a below average team. Although the offense has shown flashes, the defense can be down right terrible... like this week.

11. Hamburglers (up 1)
median EWP = 21%, avg EWP = 21%, variance = 9%, luck = +1.2 wins
The luckiest team in FLOF over the last games, Hamburglers are a step below Flannel in the rankings because of the offense has not shown as much potential.

12. Bill (down 2)
median EWP = 19%, avg EWP = 18%, variance = 14%, luck = -0.7 wins
This team has collapsed over the last 4 weeks, especially on defense where their mean score has been 13 points.

Week 9 Review

2010-11-09T10:11:00.001-05:00

Nine games into the year and the gap between the league's best and worst records is only 3 games and Division races are even tighter. In the Left, the gap from best record to worst is only 2 games and the gap from the top to the 3rd best record is 1/2 game. In the Middle, the gap from top to bottom is 2.5 games and the gap from 1st to 3rd is 1 game. In the Right, the gap from top to bottom is 1.5 games and the gap from top to 3rd is 1 game.

Left Division
Mimes 55 - Lagers 32
Drow 44 - Beavers 13
The Mime-Lager match-up did not disappoint but Lagers just could not keep up with Mimes' production as many teams have failed to do this year. Drow put together their 2nd 100+ pt game in their last 3 outings to beat a Beaver team who put up another solidly average score. These results move Mimes and Drow in lock-step to the top of the division 1/2 game ahead of Lagers and 2 games in front of Beavers.

Middle Division
Old No. 7 and Rednecks win
Malleus and Bill lose
None of these teams played really well this week: Rednecks and Old No. 7 produced above average scores and beat teams that did not. And Bill's CJ2K bye week and Malleus' roster toped by Ryan Fitzpatrick did what you'd expect them too and played poorly in losses against beatable teams. Interestingly, Malleus immediately traded Rednecks Romo and a pick for Tom Brady -- solving Malleus' QB problem and signalling Rednecks have given up on this season.

Right Division
Flannel and Hamburglers win
CAPO and Ramjets lose
This division just got a lot tighter as the top two teams failed to take advantage of their opportunities -- a CAPO win would have given them a 2 game lead over 2nd place Ramjets; a Ramjets win would have put them in a tie with CAPO at the top. Instead, CAPO now holds only a 1 game lead over 2nd place Flannel and 3rd place Ramjets.

Week 9 Preview

2010-11-05T08:00:00.001-04:00

Some really close games on the slate this weekend and some really important contests as well. The crowded Left Division gets to fight amongst themselves this week as the Middle Division travels to the Right Division.

Mimes @ Lagers
The top two scorers from last week in a clash for the top of the Left Division. Mimes throttled Lagers back in week 3. But that was a while ago. As I've predicted these two teams as the favored to win the Left, this game is crucial to both.
EWP gives Mimes a 55% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Lagers 19 - Mimes 14

Rednecks @ Ramjets
Rednecks have lost 2 in a row as Ramjets try to recover from their poor early start to contend. My most recent predictions suggest that these will be the two teams on the playoff bubble at the end of the year. The winner gets a leg up toward sneaking in to the playoffs.
EWP gives Rednecks a 53% chance to win
Yahoo predicts

Old No. 7 @ CAPO
CAPO won last week, but had a bad week. Old No. 7 seem to have recovered some of their mojo. Both teams are in the thick of playoff battles. CAPO has a 1 game lead on Ramjets for the Right Division while Old No. 7 remain 1.5 games behind Malleus in the Middle.
EWP gives Old No. 7 a 50.1% chance to win
Yahoo predicts CAPO 25 - Old No.7 16

Beavers @ Drow
Another important battle. Beavers are the 3rd team my most recent predictions puts on the outside looking in when the playoffs end. Drow are predicted to be a wild card team now, but those predictions could flip-flop if Beavers win here.
EWP gives Drow a 62% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Drow 19 - Beavers 18

Bill @ Hamburglers
Bill seems to be a team in free-fall. While Hamburglers have already built a solid foundation at the bottom of FLOF. If Bill has a chance to turn this around and defend his FLOF Championship, he needs wins like this against beatable teams. Bill could be behind the 8-ball this week though without CJ2K and with several possible holes in his line-up.
EWP gives Bill a 52% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Hamburglers 18 - Bill 0

Malleus @ Flannel
Best team in FLOF against one of the worst teams. Will Malleus' roster finally come apart or will Haydn continue to plug in players to keep the machine running? Flannel almost took down CAPO last week, can they play spoiler this week?
EWP gives Malleus a 82% chance to win
Yahoo predicts Flannel 10 - Malleus 8

Season Predictions after Week 8

2010-11-04T08:00:00.031-04:00

I've automated my season-long prediction model. So here's a quick update using the results of week 8 and everyone's new EWPs. The Left Division remains so tight at the top that my predictions are likely to change every week from here on out unless someone breaks away from the pack.

Left
1. Mimes, currently 4-3-1, prediction 8-5-1, division winner, #2 seed
2. ICL, currently 5-3, prediction 8-5-1 but 2 loses to Mimes, wild card
3. Drow, currently 4-3-1, prediction 7-5-2, wild card
4. Beavers, currently 3-4-1, prediction 5-7-2

Middle
1. Malleus, currently 6-2, prediction 10-3-1, division winner, #1 seed
2. Old No. 7, currently 4-3-1, prediction 7-6-1, wild card
3. Rednecks, currently 4-4, prediction 7-7
4. Bill, currently 3-4-1, prediction 5-8-1

Right
1. CAPO, currently 4-3-1, prediction 7-6-1, division winner
2. Ramjets, currently 3-4-1, prediction 6-7-1
3. Flannel, currently 2-5-1, prediction 4-9-1
4. Hamburglers, currently 2-6, prediction 4-10

wild card round:
CAPO edge Old No. 7
Lagers edge Drow

playoff round:
Malleus beat Lagers
Mimes beat CAPO

FLOF Bowl
Malleus beat Mimes